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NFL Player Performance Props: Best Bets and Predictions

by Mike Allen - 8/19/2024

NFL player performance props predictions Bijan Robinson Atlanta Falcons

Week 2 of the 2024 NFL Preseason is now behind us, and I have to be honest and admit we haven't learned a great deal so far. A few players, including Minnesota Vikings rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy, have already gone down for the year with injuries.

Some first-year stars have shown flashes of greatness. The hookup between Bears rookies, when Caleb Williams dropped a 45-yard dime across his body to Rome Odunze on the sideline, was the best-looking play I've seen this preseason.

Should we run to the betting window and hammer both Odunze and Williams' player performance bets to the over? It doesn't sound like the worst idea at the moment. However, some have beat us to it, and the QB was only 6-13 for 78 yards. Let's not get ahead of ourselves.

However, we can still sprinkle, at the very least, a little something on these Bears stars. What about Patrick Mahomes? He threw a successful behind-the-back pass to Traves Kelce this past weekend. An over on Mahomes' performance just seems like a trap at this point. Maybe we save all our money for postseason bets on the Chiefs' moneyline.

For now, let’s get to our best bets for NFL player performance props.

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Bijan Robinson 1000.5 Rushing Yards

Over: -115

Under: -115

The Atlanta Falcons’ Bijan Robinson, entering his second year in the league, is poised for an even bigger season than his first. With the addition of veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins under center, the Atlanta Falcons offense is looking to be one of the more balanced and potentially explosive in the NFL.

Last season, the young Robinson, more often than not, was up against defenses who essentially knew what was coming. The Atlanta offense in 2023 ranked 22nd throwing the ball, while the running game was top 10. With the addition of Cousins, as well as several other strong roster moves, the Falcons' passing attack should open things up for one of the most talented players in the league.

Last year, Robinson was 19th in the NFL in rushing attempts. Should Atlanta have a more balanced offensive attack, and thus be winning more games in the second half, that will lend itself to our guy busting the 1,001-yard mark.

Pick: Over 1000.5 Yards

Justin Jefferson 94.5 Receptions

Over: -115

Under: -115

Justin Jefferson is one of, if not the, best wide receiver in the NFL. He was recently asked to rate his confidence in Sam Darnold heading into the 2024 regular season. He replied that it was very high and he wasn't worried at all.

I second that and have been a vocal backer of Darnold this year. Now that McCarthy has gone down for the year with a torn meniscus, I like the over even more for Jefferson to return to his triple-digit reception ways.

He played in only 10 games last year due to injury, but it isn't anything to worry about. It was just his hamstring, and he caught 12 passes for 192 yards in the season finale against the Lions. The guy has averaged many receptions per game over the past three years. Hopefully, he stays on that level, and we cash our bets by Week 14.

Pick: Jefferson Over 94.5 Receptions

TJ Watt Sacks

Over 13.5: -125

Under 13.5: -105

TJ Watt is a different kind of defender. The definition of a game-changer,  Watt has had more than 13 sacks five times already in his 7-year career. Take away his rookie season and 2022, when he only played 10 games, and his average per year is nearly 17 sacks.

He isn't losing a step, either. He had 19 last season to go along with a career-high in total tackles. With the team much stronger at the quarterback position, the Iron Curtain defense should be in more obvious pass rushing downs.

Let’s hope so. We are going over again.

Pick: Watt Over 13.5 Sacks

Jayden Daniels Rushing Touchdowns

Over 4.5: -130

Under 4.5: +100

This play here on Washington Commanders rookie quarterback Jarden Daniels is one I love almost as much as our next bet.

Daniels is slick and quick on his feet. The LSU Tiger is no stranger to getting first downs with said feet. He ran the ball more than 300 times for 2,000 yards during his two years as a Tiger.

If he can come anywhere close to the 15 that Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen were each able to pull off, then we will stay in the green.

Pick: Daniels Over 4.5 Rushing Touchdowns

Caleb Williams Interceptions

Over 12.5: -120

Under 12.5: -110

This one here is my favorite bet of the day. The Chicago Bears are about as all-in as a team can be on any rookie quarterback. We all know the steps they have taken to make things as easy as possible for Williams in his first year as the starter.

I remember when the Indianapolis Colts did that for Peyton Manning. You know he still holds the record for interceptions thrown by a rookie quarterback? How many? 28.

Do we see a year like that from the rookie? The number is small enough for us to attack. Mahomes had 15, Hurts had 14, and Jared Goff threw 12. Williams looks good, and I believe he'll be feeling himself by midseason, which will lead to several overconfident mistakes.

Pick: Williams Over 12.5 Interceptions

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