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NFL Free Agency Predictions: Odds and Betting Props for Key Players

by Mike Allen - 3/8/2024

NFL free agency predictions and props odds Chris Jones Kansas City Chiefs

As we approach one month removed from Super Bowl LVIII, it’s about time we shift our focus toward potential Week 1 rosters of NFL teams. There is the NFL Draft, of course, but that isn’t until the last week of April.

Thankfully, we have betting odds available for us to attempt to predict the next team of several key free agents in the NFL. The signing period for free agency will begin on March 13, with teams allowed to begin negotiations and even agree to deals with players on the 11th.

The NFC Champion San Francisco 49ers’ Chase Young was traded over from the Washington Redskins midseason and failed to meet his expectations. From one pash rusher to another, the Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs could lose the incomparable Chris Jones to free agency in 2024.

On the offensive side of the ball, we unfortunately don't have odds for the quarterbacks, but they should be dropping sooner rather than later. We do have odds for one wide receiver, though, the Jacksonville Jaguars' Calvin Ridley. It didn't take the Fort Lauderdale native long to develop chemistry with quarterback Trevor Lawrence. I know Jags fans want Ridley back in 2024.

We also have odds on a landing spot for one of the NFL's highest-rated running backs, who is presumably on the move from the Big Apple this offseason.

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Key Defensive Free Agents

Chase Young Next Team if Not the Niners

Cardinals: +175

Bears: +225

Patriots: +900

Eagles: +1800

Texans: +2000

I can’t believe the Washington Commanders traded this guy away for a 3rd round pick. It gets easier to believe, however, as we saw him fail to produce at a level someone of his talent level should.

I think it's his knee, and I don't have to tell you that these guys are winning or losing on milliseconds. Some guys can come back from ACL surgery and be 80-90% of the football player they were before, but not all.

It appears that Young's ceiling may now only be ⅔ of what it once was. On the bright side, that is still enough to keep him in the league. He will probably have to sign a 1- or 2-year deal this offseason, whether he stays in San Francisco or sets his sails somewhere else.

Both the Bears and Cardinals are good options, but if the Bears don't re-sign Justin Fields, they are going to have a of money to throw around as Arizona does. These teams aren't Super Bowl contenders, and those are the teams that take a chance with a 1-year deal on an uber-talented player like Young.

That's where the Philadelphia Eagles, a team that has suffered Young's wrath before, swoop in, and we cash an 18-1 ticket.

Pick: Eagles

Chris Jones Next Team if Not the Chiefs

Raiders: +400

Lions: +500

Cowboys: +700

Bills: +900

Ravens: +1000

Can you imagine Chris Jones lining up next to Maxx Crosby in Las Vegas? You would have probably the best pash-rushing defensive tackle in the league alongside one of the best defensive ends coming around the corner.

I know what team I want Jones to play for, but where will he end up? The Chiefs' front office is adamant that he is at the top of their list.

Jones seems like one of those guys, who if the Chiefs don't pay him what he feels he deserves, will go out of his way to play them at least twice a year.

Las Vegas it is.

Pick: Raiders

Key Offensive Free Agents

Saquon Barkley Next Team if not the Giants

Houston: +200

Dallas: +300

Philadelphia: +400

Chicago: +800

Baltimore: +1200

After doing the research, these three teams at the top are all potential places for Saquon Barkley to play. It appears that the New York Giants aren’t interested anymore.

It's a shame what is going on with running backs in today's league, but it is what it is. Barkley can still demand some bucks, though. There are plenty of contenders who are interested in filling holes at running back.

Insert the Dallas Cowboys. Nobody loves a big name that all of ‘Dem Boys are familiar with. Who else is more familiar to Dallas than Barkley? He has averaged nearly 5 yards a carry against them in his career.

I can see Jerry overpaying him for sure.

Pick: Cowboys

Calvin Ridley Next Team if Not the Jaguars

Atlanta: +200

Kansas City: +500

New York: +700

Buffalo: +800

Pittsburgh: +1000

Finally, we have the previously mentioned Ridley. It's a bummer this guy lost some of his athletic prime to suspension, but at least he saved some mileage on the Bugatti that is his body.

I really didn’t expect to see the Atlanta Falcons as the betting favorites here. Didn’t they just get rid of the guy?

It is hard to say what Ridley needs. Is he chasing more money or a chance to win a Super Bowl? I know what a team like the Kansas City Chiefs are chasing, though, and that’s another Super Bowl.

They barely did it this year, being so light at wide receiver, and I can already hear Patrick Mahomes in his Kermit voice telling the front office to bring in the best wideout on the market.

Pick: Chiefs

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