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NFL Divisional Round Weekend Prop Bet Predictions with Expert Analysis

by Matt Zitt - 1/17/2024

NFL Divisional Round Weekend prop bet predictions Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs

The NFL Divisional Round is upon us, and last week we saw our prop bets go 3-3 in the Wild Card round. The Texans, Packers, Chiefs, Bills, and Bucs all saw double-digit victories, as the Lions and Rams were the only close game. Now we are down to eight teams remaining in the quest for a Super Bowl trophy, and the top-seeded 49ers and Ravens will be in action after a bye week. Doc’s Sports will break down some of the best bets for this upcoming weekend.

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Ravens: OVER 13.5 first-half points (-120)

These two teams played each other way back in Week 2, where the Ravens won, 25-9. The Texans lit up the Browns secondary last week in the Wild Card matchup and exposed Joe Flacco to back-to-back interceptions returned for touchdowns. Now, they face the No. 1 squad in the AFC coming off a bye. Baltimore is fourth in the NFL in first-half scoring, averaging 15.4 points at the break. These numbers improve at home to 16.6 points in the first half. Look for John Harbaugh to have the Ravens ready to execute on offense right out of the gate.

George Kittle OVER 52.5 receiving yards (-115)

Kittle lands an excellent matchup in his 2024 postseason debut. To put it plain and simple, the Green Bay Packers struggle against tight ends. They have allowed 10 total touchdowns to the position group this season and surrendered three last weekend to Dallas’ Jake Ferguson. Kittle averaged 63.8 receiving yards per game this season and has gone over this prop number in 10 of his 16 games (62.5%). I would also think about targeting his receptions total that most books have at 3.5 catches. In three career games against the Packers, Kittle has averaged 5.6 receptions and 83.6 receiving yards.

Jayden Reed OVER 3.5 receptions (-135)

This is a great bounce back spot for Reed after not recording a catch last week against the Cowboys on a measly three targets. Prior to the Wild Card round, Reed had four or more receptions in eight consecutive games. There should be plenty of bubble screens on Saturday to try and avoid the 49ers pass rush. I also doubt the Packers will be able to run the ball as well against San Francisco than they did against Dallas, which should equate to more passes. Even in a so-called “tough” matchup, it is very likely the Packers will be down and in a negative game script. Everything points to an over for Reed’s reception total.  

Baker Mayfield OVER 249.5 passing yards (-110)

It took a little while for Mayfield to get comfortable in the Bucs offense, but he has been on a roll, as evidenced by his 337-yard, three-touchdown performance against the Eagles in the Wild Card Round. Pro Football Focus has the Lions pass defense ranked fourth-worst in the NFL. Just look at these numbers from quarterbacks playing against the Lions defense since Week 16; Nick Mullens threw for 411 yards in Week 16, Dak Prescott tossed for 345 yards in Week 17, Nick Mullens again in Week 18 threw for 396 yards, and Matt Stafford had 367 yards in the Wild Card matchup. Add in the fact if the Lions get off to a big lead, the Bucs will have to throw the ball. Baker should clear this total.

Patrick Mahomes OVER 24.5 rushing yards (-110)

Mahomes rushing totals have become an automatic bet at this point in the playoffs and highly competitive regular season matchups. He registered 48 rushing yards last weekend against the Dolphins on two scrambles and might have to rely on his legs again with how the Bills defense has been playing in coverage as of late. Buffalo’s defense has allowed the 11th most rushing yards to quarterbacks this year and has been banged up at the linebacker position. A few mistakes from the Bills backup linebackers could result in some open lanes for Mahomes to scamper off to.

Josh Allen OVER 22.5 completions (-110)

I am targeting Allen’s arm as he goes toe-for-toe with Patrick Mahomes this weekend at Orchard Park. Allen played a huge role in the Bills’ victory over the Steelers last weekend with four total touchdowns. He has completed at least 20 passes in all his first nine career playoff games, including 25-plus in each of his two prior postseason matchups vs Mahomes and the Chiefs. Kansas City’s run defense is only allowing 76 yards a game, so I expect Allen to air it out. The Chiefs’ secondary has allowed at least 23 completions to the opposing quarterback in five of their past eight contests. 

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