NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 18

by Joey House - 1/3/2024

Welcome to Doc's Sports NFL Confidence Pool Picks, where we analyze the slate of NFL games each week and give you both the selections to make and the corresponding "confidence value" to go along with the pick.

The old saying goes, "Time flies by when you're having fun." Truer words were never spoken, because even though my beloved Iggles are collapsing before my very eyes, I've never had such an enjoyable or fast season as this one.

We rebounded from a rough week with our second 13-3 record in three weeks. Alas, my beloved Iggles cost us from having our best record of the season. This week, we're challenged with the NFL's version of "opt-outs," as some teams that have sown up their playoff spots are resting their starters—nothing like making the final week one of the most difficult ones to handicap.

However, you should wait as long as possible to submit your picks. Some coaches haven't decided if their regular starters are playing when this is being written, so make sure you check for yourself.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

16 points- Dallas over Washington: No other team has been picked for the most confident pick than Dallas, and for good reason. They have the 3rd-best scoring offense (29.4 ppg) and the 5th-best scoring defense (19.1 ppg). Thanks to Philly's epic collapse last week, they're back in the hunt for the NFC East crown and second-best record in the NFC. Say goodbye to "Riverboat Ron".

15 points- Tampa Bay over Carolina: It wasn't always smooth sailing, but the Baker Mayfield "experiment" has been moderately successful. At 8-8, the Bucs are tied with the Saints for first place in the NFC South and are in 4th place in the conference. However, a loss to the worst team in the league could change all of that. Luckily, Tampa Bay is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last seven against Carolina.

14 points- Detroit over Minnesota: If you're a conspiracy theorist, the "failed to report" play makes perfect sense: the NFL wanted Dallas to win. Now, the Cowboys hold the tiebreaker over Detroit. Detroit's head coach, Dan Campbell, says he'll play his starters, and the Lions are 5-1 SU at home over their last six games in the Motor City.

13 points- Cincinnati over Cleveland: The Browns have announced that the ageless wonder, QB Joe Flacco, is not playing, and QB Jeff Driskel is taking his spot. It's been a rough couple of weeks for the Bengals, but a win over their cross-state rival could help the healing. Cincy is 12-3 in their last 15 home games.

12 points- San Francisco over LA Rams: In this battle of backup QBs, I'm taking the Niners Sam Darnold over the Rams Carson Wentz. For all of you gamblers out there, the under is 4-1 over the last five with the starting QBs. It's sure to repeat with these fill-ins.

11 points- Seattle over Arizona: Seattle still technically has a chance at the playoffs but needs a lot of help. First and foremost, however, they must defeat an Arizona team that they have won five out of six. The Seahawks are also 5-1 SU in their last six road games against the Cardinals.

10 points- Pittsburgh over Baltimore (Sat.): It was just announced a few minutes ago that the Ravens MVP candidate Lamar Jackson would not play in Baltimore's season finale, and backup QB Tyler Huntley will be under center. The Steelers beat their division rivals at full strength back in Week 5 and are 5-1 SU in their last six games at Baltimore.

9 points- New Orleans over Atlanta: While every other 8-8 team holds the tiebreaker over them, New Orleans can still win the division if Tampa Bay loses. Atlanta is 2-12 SU in their last 14 road games, while the Saints are 6-3 SU in the last nine meetings with the Falcons.

8 points- Philadelphia over NY Giants: I have no faith in Philadelphia to win a playoff game, but the Eagles are 5-0 SU in their last five games against the rival Giants. New York has struggled lately in the division, going 3-11-1 SU over their last 15 games in the NFC East.

7 points- Las Vegas over Denver: Denver HC Sean Payton couldn't fix everything, and it now looks like the Broncos are back in the never-ending search for a QB. Las Vegas has been playing much better over the past few weeks, as evidenced by the 6-1-1 ATS record in their last eight games. I'm taking the team that's still trying.

6 points- Green Bay over Chicago: Green Bay currently resides in the seventh and final playoff spot, enabling them to control their own destiny. The Packers are 9-0 SU and ATS in their last nine contests against the Bears.

5 points- LA Chargers over Kansas City: The Chiefs have announced they'll be starting QB Blaine Gabbert, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a few more Chiefs sit out the last game. The Chargers look to snap a home losing streak of eight games to the Chiefs.

4 points- Jacksonville over Tennessee: Jacksonville is in a similar position as Green Bay. They hold the lead in the AFC South but must win to ensure their inclusion in the playoffs. The Jaguars have owned the AFC South recently, going 7-1 SU in their last eight games in the division. Tennessee once had a chance but went 1-4 SU in their last five games and have been out of playoff contention for a while.

3 points- Buffalo over Miami: A Bills win here gives them 2nd Seed in the AFC, while a loss COULD knock them out (with a particular set of results). In addition to getting whopped on the scoreboard, Miami got physically beat up against Baltimore last Sunday and has many questionable players. The Bills are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games against the Fins.

2 points- Indianapolis over Houston (Sat. night): The schedulers couldn't have done it any better, getting the top two teams in the AFC South to battle in the regular season finale. This is, in essence, a playoff game, as the winner wins the division and the loser misses out. The Texans have not fared well against the Colts, going 2-8-1 SU and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games against Indy. It's even worse when the Colts host Houston, as Indianapolis is 16-4 SU in their last 20 home games against Houston.

1 point- New England over NY Jets: This will probably be the last time the Patriots' head coach, Bill Belichick, roams the sideline in a heavy parka. The Jets are winless in their last ten visits to Foxboro, and an inspired Pats team will make it 11 games without a victory.

2023 Total Record

Week 1: 9-7 59 total points

Week 2: 12-4 119 total points

Week 3: 10-6 79 total points

Week 4: 10-6 97 total points

Week 5: 6-8 69 total points

Week 6: 11-4 84 total points

Week 7: 6-7 41 total points

Week 8: 11-5 101 total points

Week 9: No article

Week 10: 9-5 67 total points

Week 11: 10-4 85 total points

Week 12: 10-6 90 total points

Week 13: 8-5 58 total points

Week 14: 6-9 51 total points

Week 15: 13-3 113 points

Week 16: 6-10 67 points

Week 17: 13-3 112 points

Total: 137-89 (60.6%)

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Start:	November 25, 2024 @ 10:37 PM
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NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 18

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