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NFL Conference Championships Best Bets and Odds for AFC and NFC

by Mike Allen - 12/4/2024

NFL conference championship best bets Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs

It's Week 14 in the NFL, and the playoff picture inside what had become a mid-season snow globe is beginning to clear up as the flakes fall. We were on the Detroit Lions (-110) before the season and a month ago (-140) to win the NFC North. For other teams like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the 2024 season has been a rollercoaster. After the Atlanta Falcons beat them for a second time, Tampa had odds upwards of (+1800) to win the NFC South. Here, they are at (-105) in Week 14 with a favorable schedule in front of them. You'll see in a moment how much respect the oddsmakers are giving this team.

Of course, the Philadelphia Eagles are coming on strong. However, do we trust Jalen Hurts to be an accurate pocket passer when he needs to be? Nick Sirianni is undoubtedly doing something right. I don't know how much I believe he makes the correct decision in real-time.

Is something up in Kansas City? The team keeps winning. They're 11-1 with an average margin of victory of just 4.5 points. The defense is beginning to struggle, but that could be offset, at least temporarily, with the return of Isaiah Pacheco on the other side of the ball.

The Buffalo Bills are on fire right now. However, can they sustain the heat throughout the playoffs?

Today, we have betting odds for the winners of the AFC and NFC. This isn't for the top seed. Our picks will be for who represents their respective conferences at Super Bowl LIX. 

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

Betting Odds to Win the NFC Championship

Detroit Lions: +140

The Detroit Lions play the Packers in a huge division game this Thursday. I wanted to write this article ahead of time because I like the odds right where they are. As good as the Detroit Lions are, could they have beaten the Bills in that snow we saw on Black Friday? The same thing that happened to the Niners could happen to them if they're forced to play a January postseason game outside in Philly or Green Bay.

Philadelphia Eagles: +250

I like Philly to win the AFC at these odds. They have Carolina this week and are favored by more than a field goal at home in the lookahead line for their Week 15 matchup against the Steelers.

The Lions have a more demanding schedule down the stretch, and they've taken several stings from the injury bug over the past couple of weeks. The Eagles have a better defense than the Lions and an offense that loves to play keep-away.

Green Bay Packers: +700

The Green Bay Packers are hitting their stride about the same time they did last season. I love their head coach as an offensive mastermind, and he seems to sufficiently motivate his players enough to play their butts off each week.

Minnesota Vikings: +800

The Minnesota Vikings shocked everyone with their 5-0 straight-up and against-the-spread record to start the season. After the Lions helped bring them back to earth, they were shell-shocked for a couple of weeks, but lately, they've found a way to win when they had to.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: +2000

I know it's 20-1, but the oddsmakers respect this team. Is it that, or does the NFC fall off a table after the top four? The Bucs don't have the defense to win on the road in the playoffs. That said, don't let Baker Mayfield's performance last week affect your handicapping from here on out. He was going up against his offensive coordinator from last season, Dave Canales. I love them this week, even as 7-point favorites to the Raiders.

Seattle Seahawks: +2800

The Seahawks are making a big push at the moment, but they can't compete with the elite.

Washington Commanders: +2800

The debriefing from the Commanders' camp in Week 13 had to be a good one. They had their "Get Right" blowout win over the Titans. They're 78% to make the postseason at the moment but statistical websites are giving them just over a 1% chance to win the Super Bowl. That puts them at maybe 3-5% to win the NFC.

The future is bright, however, for this team.

San Francisco 49ers: +4000

What a disaster this season has been for the Super Bowl runners-up. Not only are they sitting in Week 14 with only a 6% chance to make the postseason, but their star players continue to go down to serious injury.

I wonder if Christian McCaffrey will ever be the same.

Los Angeles Rams: +4000

I can't predict this team's performance in 2024. I would rather bet the beat-up 49ers at 40-1.

Arizona Cardinals: +4000

The Arizona Cardinals have a massive game with the Seahawks this week, but why wait for a bet like this? This defense has allowed just 54 points over their previous four games, and a quarterback, while streaky, has the potential to play as well as anyone at his position in the league.

Best Bets to Win the NFC

Philadelphia Eagles: +250

These are the two best teams, and if it comes down to the NFC title game, even in Detroit, I would love a (+250) on Philly. They have current odds to capture the #1 seed of (+190), behind the Lions, who are sitting at (-160).

These two may have to go to a third or even fourth tiebreaker if they finish the regular season with the same record. It's the better defensive and a coaching staff to match. Dan Campbell also makes bad in-game decisions. You aren't aggressive if you don't.

Green Bay Packers: +700

Can Jordan Love take care of the ball in January? All the interceptions weren't his fault, but I love the Pack as a team that can win on the road in the postseason. They're 4-1 on the road this year with their only loss coming in an early-season thriller in Philadelphia.

They're accustomed to the elements, and while the Vikings are much more likely to take the #1 seed, I like the Packers' ability to win on the road, and at this price range, that's imperative.

Arizona Cardinals: +4000

The Cardinals are about a coin flip to make the postseason. This is a stretch and would be the NFL's biggest surprise of the past decade. It took me a while to realize it, but this team is hazardous.

Would they struggle in the elements? Probably. However, they're a defensive team with a QB who can use his legs. He could take extra time to watch some film on Josh Allen versus the Niners.

Betting Odds to Win the AFC Championship

Buffalo Bills: +200

Speaking of the betting favorite to win the 2024 NFL MVP, Allen's team is the betting favorite for the first time all year to win the AFC. You have to buy low, though. We bet him at (+150) for the MVP two weeks ago, and now he's (-175).

As mentioned earlier, the Bills have to travel to Detroit next week in what will be the game of the year to this point. We still have five games left to play, and I imagine we will see better odds on the Bills along the way.

Kansas City Chiefs: +210

Are the Chiefs leaking oil? I wouldn't freak out just yet. They are the two-time defending champs with nearly as much continuity as experience. They're incomparable in that way, and you have to trust their system.

The Tortoise and the Hare is a true story. I see it all the time in MMA. Imagine you start a four-month race, and you see the guy who has won the previous two times just jogging while others race out of the gates. I wouldn't say I like the betting odds where they are right now, but I do like KC.

Baltimore Ravens: +450

Now, we're talking with the (+450). Remember what we said about buying low? Well, it could be the time to snatch the Ravens.

Pittsburgh Steelers: +950

The Steelers continue to be disrespected by the books. They're 6-1 since starting Russell Wilson, with their only loss coming in a horrific short-week spot on the road to the Browns.

The books made them underdogs last week against Cincy. Look what happened.

No respect, I tell ya!

Houston Texans: +1400

Los Angeles Chargers: +1800

Denver Broncos: +1800

Miami Dolphins: +6600

Best Bets to Win the AFC

Baltimore Ravens (+450)

This is the #1 offense in the league, and they're the best at stopping the run. However, a lack of focus during the game has led to the team being the most penalized in the league. That can disappear, though, as can the troubles of longtime kicker Justin Tucker.

I should stop there because he is struggling mightily. Here's a hypothesis. Because they have less confidence in him, they will go for it more on 4th and short. This team is built for that.

They need Tucker to keep it between the navigational beacons, but we still have over a month before the playoffs for him to correct it.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+950)

I understand it was against the Cincy defense, but this offense absolutely exploded last week. The team is well-coached, especially as underdogs. They play well outside and on the road, and their quarterback has already won a Super Bowl.

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