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NFL Championship Weekend Prop Bet Predictions with Expert Analysis

by Matt Zitt - 1/24/2024

NFL Championship weekend prop bet predictions Justin Tucker Baltimore Ravens

Sunday should be a spectacular day of football in the AFC and NFC Conference Championships. There is no shortage of star power, as the Baltimore Ravens will host Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs to kick the day off. The tail end of Sunday’s doubleheader will feature the Detroit Lions visiting Christian McCaffrey and the San Francisco 49ers. Last week’s picks went 4-2, bringing our playoff total to 7-5 overall. Doc’s Sports will break down the best player props from Sunday’s slate of championship games.

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Justin Tucker, Ravens, OVER 1.5 field goals (-125)

This just feels like a guaranteed winner. Tucker is by far the best field goal kicker in the history of the NFL, and the Ravens offense, especially at home, moves the ball up and down the field at will. The Chief’s defense is good enough to make a few stops inside the 35-yard line and force the Ravens offense to settle for field goals. Kansas City’s opponent’s red-zone touchdown percentage is 50% exactly on the road. Tucker has hit multiple field goals in six of the Ravens’ past eight contests, and he has not missed a field goal since Thanksgiving. The over is a solid choice on Sunday.

Lamar Jackson, Ravens, anytime TD (+110) and OVER 60.5 rushing yards (-125)

Lamar has his eyes on a Super Bowl trophy as he scored twice last weekend against the Texans and rushed for over 100 yards. I cannot imagine the Chiefs holding Jackson out of the endzone as he has three career rushing touchdowns in four games against Andy Reid’s team. Josh Allen had two rushing touchdowns last week against this same defense, so feel confident in the plus money for a Lamar TD. Going back to the watering hole seems like the smart play for his rushing total as well. If you want to beat Mahomes, especially in the playoffs, the Ravens are going to have to lean on Jackson’s legs. The last time these teams squared off, in 2021, Lamar ran for 107 yards in a victory. Kansas City’s defense surrendered 72 rushing yards last week to Allen, and I expect this to be a close game. Look for Jackson to call his own number a lot on the ground.

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs, OVER 36.5 pass attempts (-110)

Kansas City ranked sixth in the NFL in pass attempts this season with 36.8 per game. I see a lot more passes in Mahomes’ future coming off a win in which he only threw 23 attempts. Another important note, only two teams saw visiting quarterbacks attempt more passes per game than Baltimore at 37.5 per game. In what should be a close game, Mahomes has attempted 43-plus passes in three of the Chiefs’ last four losses. Going up against a solid Ravens run defense, look for the two-time SB winner to air it out a lot.

Sam LaPorta, Lions, anytime TD (+150)

LaPorta’s success as a rookie has been stellar up to this point. The rookie led all tight ends in touchdowns during the regular season and was fifth in receiving yards. He has 12 catches and one touchdown in Detroit’s two playoff wins. In those games, he has seen five targets in the red zone. The 49ers defense is a strong unit but has looked weaker in recent weeks. San Francisco gave up two passing TDs to the Packers, including one to tight end Tucker Kraft. Lock in LaPorta to find the endzone on Sunday.

George Kittle, 49ers, OVER 60.5 receiving yards (-115)

We took this prop last week as well, and it cashed easily, with Kittle tallying 81 receiving yards. The stud tight end has proven time and time again that he is a big-game receiver. He has exceeded 60 yards in 10 of his past 15 games, and he has averaged 80.7 receiving yards per game since the first week of November. With Deebo Samuels banged up as well, Kittle seems like a solid bet to snag 60+ receiving yards.

Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions, alternate receiving yards 40+ (+245)

Gibbs has been nothing but phenomenal in his rookie season with the Lions and adds that extra burst that the offense needs. He has cleared this number in both playoff games, registering 40 yards on four receptions against the Bucs last week and 43 receiving yards on four catches against the Rams in the Wild Card Round. He’s cleared this total in the past two wins. And if the Lions fall behind early, or are trailing in the fourth quarter, it could lead to more dump offs to the running backs. At +245 odds, it's worth a wager on Gibbs over 40 receiving yards. 

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