NFL Betting Predictions: Wild Card Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 1/9/2024

NFL betting predictions Wild Card opening line report Joe Flacco Cleveland Browns

The playoffs get underway this weekend, with 6 Wild Card games on tap for what should be an exhilarating weekend of NFL football. The playoff field has been set, and we finished off the regular season on a positive note. Last week, we went 2-1 on our picks, bringing our final regular season record to a respectable 27-24-3 ATS. The Saints made easy work of the Falcons, winning 48-17 and easily covering the -3.5 point spread. The Rams edged out a 1-point win over the 49ers, who already had the top seed secured. Our lone loss was with the Dolphins, who slipped all the way down to the 6th seed after losing to the Bills on Sunday Night Football. Before we get into a mouthwatering slate of Wild Card games, here are the biggest storylines from an eventful Week 18.

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Win and in: The Buccaneers, Packers, and Texans all faced ‘win and in’ games in Week 18, and they secured their respective playoff positions. While they are all underdogs in their Wild Card matchups, at least one should pull off an upset.
Alarm bells in Philly: The Eagles started the season 10-1, and have limped over the finish line, losing 5 of their last 6 games. Back-to-back losses to the Cardinals and Giants is not the way Philadelphia wanted to enter the playoffs, and they will need to sort out their issues on both sides of the ball in the next 6 days of their season will have a premature ending.
Jaguars fall to the Titans: A Tennessee team with nothing to play for dominated the Jacksonville Jaguars, who were fighting for their playoff lives. Trevor Lawrence had several misplaced passes down the stretch, and it’s back to the drawing board for the Jags.
Bills take the AFC East: Buffalo secured a playoff spot on Sunday afternoon, before ripping the AFC East crown out of the grasp of the Dolphins on Sunday night. Buffalo was able to limit a potent Miami offense to just 14 points, setting up a winnable matchup against the Steelers to kick off the postseason.
The Bears are on the clock: The clock is ticking for the Bears, who are gearing up for a franchise altering offseason. Justin Fields had a solid end to the season, and the Bears will need to decide if they will roll with their franchise QB or take a shot on the promising Caleb Williams out of USC. Either way, there will be fireworks on draft day.

The regular season is in the rearview mirror, and it’s time to look ahead at the Wild Card round of the postseason. There are plenty of close matchups for what promises to be an action packed, and profitable weekend.

Game 1: Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans

Opening Line: Cleveland Browns (-2.5)

The Browns and Texans both exceeded expectations in the regular season, and one of the two underdogs will punch their ticket to the divisional round on Saturday. Houston won just 11 games over the last 3 seasons. So, needless to say, a 10-7 final record is rather impressive. CJ Stroud has been phenomenal for Houston. However, with Tank Dell on the sidelines, his favorite option is no longer available. Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz are solid targets, but the Texans offense has flatlined heading into the playoffs. A tough matchup against the league’s best defensive unit will not make it easy to get back on track, and I expect the Cleveland secondary and pass rush to eliminate the Houston aerial attack. A lackluster run game for the Texans will play directly into Cleveland’s hands, and I struggle to imagine Houston putting up 21+ points. For Cleveland, Joe Flacco has been a savior, guiding the Browns to their second playoff appearance since 2002, with a 4-1 record since taking over. Flacco has been responsible with the football. And without any real expectations to succeed, he has been able to stay loose in the pocket and find his targets with supreme accuracy. In this matchup, I’ll be taking the veteran Flacco to outduel the rookie Stroud and for the Browns to cover the spread in the process. Cleveland being a road favorite in the postseason is not something I thought we’d see at the start of the year, but their superiority on both sides of the ball will be too much for Houston to overcome. The spread is sitting at -2.5 points, and it’s absolutely critical you grab this pick before the line jumps to a flat 3.

Pick: Cleveland Browns (-2.5)

Game 2: Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys

Opening Line: Dallas Cowboys (-7.5)

The Cowboys are touchdown favorites at home against Green Bay, and this line should be even steeper. Dallas has been dominant at home, going a perfect 8-0, while scoring 37.4 PPG. Dak Prescott and the Dallas offense has been firing on all cylinders and will be overjoyed they have the luxury of a pair of home games thanks to their NFC East title. For Green Bay, they will be happy they snuck into the playoffs by the finest of margins and will look to play upset against America’s team. In all honesty, this game goes one of two ways. Dallas either storms out to a double-digit first half lead, before cruising in the second half, or Green Bay makes this a dirty game, and they win outright. I don’t see a world where Dallas ekes out a victory, as they are simply head and shoulders better than Green Bay in almost every position on the field. They were the only team to eclipse 500 points scored in the regular season. And at home, they are absolutely the play. Dallas has made quick work of these middle of the pack teams. And with the whole country watching, they will call into question the legitimacy of the 7th seed. Dallas rolls to a double-digit win, easily covering this spread.

Pick: Dallas Cowboys (-7.5)

Game 3: Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Opening Line: Philadelphia Eagles (-3)
It’s understandable that the Eagles are favorites against what is possibly the worst team to make the postseason, but I just can’t tail them on the road. Philadelphia has lost 5 of their last 6 games, including a pair of losses to the Giants and Cardinals in Weeks 17 and 18. Their once dominant run game has evaporated, and Jalen Hurts has been unable to turn negative yardage into positive plays, something that bailed out the Eagles all season long. On the defensive side of the ball, injuries and departed free agents have left gaping holes to be exploited. And with a lack of pass rush to trouble Baker Mayfield, the Buccaneers will roll. Tampa Bay built an incredible offensive line to protect Tom Brady, and Mayfield is reaping the fruits of that labor. Like many NFL quarterbacks, when he has time to go through his options, Mayfield will usually make the correct choice. On defense, they’ve given up just 11.6 PPG over the last 3 contests and will be hoping they can keep that streak going against a freefalling Eagles team. In short, the Bucs are at home, and are in much better form heading into the postseason. The fact that we’re getting a full field goal with Tampa Bay is surprising, but I will not complain about the added insurance. Mayfield and the Bucs will shock the world when they dispatch the Eagles on Monday night, winning outright to send the reigning NFC champions home early.

Pick: Tampa Bay (+3)

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NFL Betting Predictions: Wild Card Opening Line Report and Picks

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