NFL Betting Predictions: Week 9 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 10/28/2024

NFL betting predictions Week 9 opening line report Bo Nix Denver Broncos

One of the most effective ways to generate a profit when betting on the NFL is by finding the closing line value (CLV). CLV is when the line you wager on before the game shifts in your favor by the time kickoff rolls around. The books are often very sharp with the closing lines, but there is almost always value available in the early stages of the week. While an extra point or two may not seem very impactful, it can be the difference-maker between making and losing money in the long run. Last week, we went 1-2 on our opening line picks. The Green Bay Packers won but didn’t cover the -4.5 point spread against the Jaguars. The Cowboys shot themselves in the foot on Sunday Night Football, with our lone win coming from the New England Patriots winning outright as seven-point underdogs.

Before we get into the opening line picks for Week 9, here are the biggest storylines from around the league after an eventful Week 8.

Trouble in Minnesota? The Vikings had their perfect season spoiled by the Lions in Week 7, but a loss to the freefalling Rams in Week 8 is far less forgivable. The Vikings defense has given up 61 points in their last two games after allowing just 76 in their first five victories.
Same old Jets: There was real optimism surrounding the Jets this season, but a loss to the Patriots has brought them to a new low. They’ve now lost five straight games. And with the Texans on the horizon, there is really no light at the end of the tunnel for the 2-6 Jets.
Winston > Watson: The Cleveland Browns got their second win of the season from an inspired Jameis Winston. Their offense came to life against the Ravens, with Winston throwing for 334 yards (Watson’s best in 19 games for Clevland was 289 yards). The playoffs may have already slipped away for the Browns, but there is suddenly hope once again for Cleveland.
Lions offensive explosion: It’s hard to envision a game where the quarterback has 85 passing yards but the team has 52 points. That is exactly what happened for the Lions, as they steamrolled the Titans to improve to 6-1 on the season.
Miracle in Maryland: Jayden Daniels threw a 60+ yard hail mary as time expired to lift the Commanders over the Bears on Sunday. The Commanders dominated the game for long stretches, as there is truly something special brewing in Washington.
More misery for the Cowboys: The San Francisco 49ers got their season back on track at the expense of the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas is now 3-4 on the season, with their victories coming against the Steelers, Giants, and Saints. Dak Prescott threw two more interceptions as a garbage time touchdown made the score look closer than it really was.

Week 8 is now in the rearview mirror, as teams look towards the second half of the NFL season. Make sure you lock in your Week 9 picks as soon as possible, as every extra point of CLV you can secure is crucial to generating a profit in the NFL.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

Game 1: Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens

Opening Line: Baltimore Ravens (-9)

The Ravens are coming in as sizable Week 9 favorites against the Denver Broncos. Both of these teams are 5-3 so far this season, but they have had very different paths to victory. The Ravens lead the league with 242 points scored this season, while the Broncos have the third best defensive record with just 15 PPG allowed. The combination of Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson has been unstoppable for the Ravens, but their defense has been unable to match their offensive efficiency. Baltimore has had one of the best defenses over the last decade but were just lit up by Jameis Winston and the Cleveland Browns. The Broncos offense is unlikely to pile on the points against Baltimore, but they will do enough to stay within single digits on the scoreboard. Bo Nix seemingly gets better with every additional NFL snap under his belt, and there is no denying the Broncos deserve to be in the AFC playoff picture. All things considered, this is a pretty generous spread for the Broncos. Denver will be able to exploit Baltimore’s defensive woes while slamming the door against Henry and Jackson down the stretch.

Pick: Denver Broncos (+9)

Game 2: Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals

Opening Line: Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)

The Bengals slipped to 3-5 after their loss against the Eagles in Week 8, meaning they probably need to go 7-2 across the final 9 games to qualify for the postseason. A home game against the Raiders is one they simply cannot afford to drop, and they will send a message to the league with a massive victory. Joe Burrow has been consistent on offense this season, and the Raiders don’t have the weapons needed to punish the Bengals defensively. Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase will undoubtedly score 25+ points against the Raiders, while we can’t trust Gardner Minshew to get the cover the other way. Las Vegas kept it within 7 points against the Chiefs last week, but that was at home against a divisional rival. Against a desperate Bengals team that cannot afford to let this thing stay close, the Raiders will have much less success. This spread is likely to balloon to double digits before kick off, making this a crucial one to lock in as soon as possible.

Pick: Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)

Game 3: Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles

Opening Line: Philadelphia Eagles (-7)

The Jaguars slipped to 2-6 with their Week 8 loss to the Packers, meaning they need to go nearly perfect down the stretch to have a chance at a postseason spot. A road game against the 5-2 Eagles is not an easy task, but the Jaguars have enough to keep it respectable in Philadelphia. Jacksonville may not be winning many games, but 4/6 losses this season have been by 5 or fewer points. They have routinely been able to play teams tight, and the Eagles lack the ruthlessness to pull away on the scoreboard. Jalen Hurts is a shadow of his former self, and it’s hard to see them replicating their beatdown against the Bengals last week. The +7 point spread is a crucial number in the NFL, and this line will not be growing any longer before Sunday afternoon.

Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars (+7)

Season Record: 11-9-1

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NFL Betting Predictions: Week 9 Opening Line Report and Picks

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