NFL Betting Predictions: Week 7 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 10/14/2024

NFL betting predictions Week 7 opening line report Joe Burrow Cincinnati Bengals

One of the most effective ways to churn a profit when betting on the NFL is by finding Closing Line Value (CLV). The closing spreads for NFL games are usually pretty accurate, but if you can secure CLV from a line only available earlier in the week, you can maximize your chances at a profit. The opening lines report will provide you with three picks you must lock in as soon as possible. There is no guarantee these lines will be available when kickoff rolls around on Sunday.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

Before we dissect the opening lines for Week 7, here are the biggest storylines for an action-packed Week 6 of NFL football.

The 49ers aren’t dead yet: San Francisco picked up a massive 36-24 victory over their NFC West rivals on Thursday. The preseason NFC favorites got off to a rocky start, but they appear to have steadied the ship in Week 6.
Caleb Williams is not a flop: Caleb Williams didn’t have the immediate success Jayden Daniels did, but he has found his groove for the Bears. He threw four touchdowns in the Bears 35-16 victory in London, leading Chicago to their first three game win streak in four years.
50 burger for Baker: The Buccaneers routed their division rivals, piling on 51 points against the Saints. They’ve scored 30+ in three straight weeks and are worthy NFC South favorites.
Ravens are revived: An 0-2 start left the Ravens in a precarious situation, but they have since won four straight games. They snapped the Commanders 4-game win streak on Sunday, as their defense was able to extinguish Jayden Daniels. On offense, Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson are the most terrifying duo in the entire league. This could be Baltimore’s year.
Lions send a message: The gruesome season-ending injury to Aidan Hutchinson spoiled Detroit’s party after their beatdown against Dallas. The 47-9 defeat for the Cowboys was their largest since 1988. The NFC is a wide open race, but the Lions are beginning to emerge as the favorites.
Bengals find a way: Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense was not to blame for their losing streak, and the Bengals found a way to get it done defensively on Sunday night. Cincinnati is still 2-4 but has a trio of winnable games on the horizon.

Now that Week 6 is in the rearview mirror, it is now time to look at the opening lines for Week 7. Even a single point of CLV can be a real difference maker in the NFL, and these three games offer the most upside heading into Week 7.

Game 1: Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns

Opening Line: Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5)

The Bengals are road favorites against their division rivals. And while that usually rings alarm bells, they will get the cover in Cleveland. The Browns offense can’t get any worse. Browns QB Deshaun Watson has yet to eclipse 200 passing yards this season. Remarkably, his 0 touchdown, 0 interception, and 168-yard game against the Eagles last week was his highest QBR of the season, which should tell you all you need to know about Watson and the Browns offense. Cleveland is getting Nick Chubb back from injury this week, but it comes at the cost of Jerome Ford, who hurt his hamstring in Week 6. Across the field, the Bengals offense stumbled against the Giants but was still good enough to pick up the victory. Cincinnati has scored the second most points in the AFC, and there is no way the Browns will keep pace. The Bengals defense showed up against the Giants and will have another easy task against the Browns. Not only will the Bengals pick up a valuable road victory, but they will do so by 7+ points, easily covering this spread. It would surprise no one if this balloons closer to a touchdown spread by kickoff, making this a perfect line to lock in right now.

Pick: Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5)

Game 2: Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers

Opening Line: Green Bay Packers (-3)

The Packers and Texans are both coming off big wins in Week 6, but only one can keep the momentum alive in Week 7. Houston deserves to be a road underdog against Green Bay, but a 3-point spread is a little bit too generous. A whopping 15% of NFL games finish with a winning margin of exactly three points, and a total of 24% finish with a margin of three or fewer points. The Packers will probably win this game, but there is simply too much upside to a Texans win or a tight Packers victory. Houston’s offense didn’t miss a beat after putting Nico Collins on IR, as they put up 41 points against a stingy Patriots defense last week. CJ Stroud continues to spread the ball nicely, and the return of Joe Mixon balances their offense nicely. The Packers have also found their man with Jordan Love, but their defense occasionally falls asleep at the wheel. They’ve allowed 300+ yards of offense in all three of their home games this year, and the Texans will translate that into points. This spread will probably not be available on Sunday, and if it drops to even +2.5 we lose lots of built-in value on the Texans.

Pick: Houston Texans (+3)

Game 3: Carolina Panthers at Washington Commanders

Opening Line: Washington Commanders (-7.5)

It’s hard to remember the last time the Commanders were touchdown favorites in the NFL. Jayden Daniels has breathed new life into this franchise, and he will undress a vulnerable Panthers defense in Week 7. Washington has shown they can beat up on bad teams, beating the Cardinals by 28 and the Browns by 21 in their two victories before their Week 6 loss. Daniels has turned the Washington offense into the best unit in the league, and they will be piling on the points against the Panthers. Carolina gave up 38 points last week and has allowed 25 or more points than every other NFL franchise. Their offense is just as bad, as Andy Dalton cannot be expected to pick apart a Commanders defense gaining their confidence. Washington may have lost to the Ravens in Week 6, but they showed they can hang around with the best teams in the league. Carolina is a much easier task, and the Commanders will win by double digits in front of a very loud home crowd.

Pick: Washington Commanders (-7.5)

Season Record: 7-7-1

Get NFL picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bet premium picks by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.

Start:	November 22, 2024 @ 8:00 PM
Expert:	Raphael Esparza (VSI)
Free $60 Account Sign Up

NFL Betting Predictions: Week 7 Opening Line Report and Picks

Most Recent NFL Handicapping