NFL Betting Predictions: Week 6 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 10/7/2024

NFL betting predictions and Week 6 opening line report Jared Goff Detroit Lions

There are few better feelings than securing closing line value on a shifting NFL spread. The opening line can bring up unique betting opportunities that will not necessarily be available when kickoff rolls around. Guaranteeing yourself an extra point or two of value may not seem that important, but every half point matters when attempting to beat the sportsbooks. Last week, we went 2-1 on our opening line picks to move our season record to 6-5-1. The Commanders brushed aside the Browns before the Cowboys made us sweat on Sunday Night getting the win and cover with just 20 seconds left. Our lone loss was on the Colts, who failed to cover by half a point.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

Before we get into a promising Week 6 slate in the NFL, here are the biggest storylines from a season-defining Week 5.

Vikings keep streaking: The Minnesota Vikings improved to 5-0 with their victory over the Jets in London. Aaron Rodgers threw three turnovers as the Vikings defense continued to impress in the early season.
Take a bow Caleb: Lighting up the Panthers defense isn’t the hardest task to do, but Caleb Williams needed a big game to settle himself for the rest of the season. He threw for 304 yards and two touchdowns on Sunday, propelling the Bears to a 36-10 victory.
Jayden Daniels is the future: After a decade of mediocrity, the Washington Commanders appear to have finally found their guy. Jayden Daniels led the team to their 4th straight victory, shaking off a tough start to take a 24-3 lead into the half. This was the first time Washington has won back-to-back games by 20+ points since 1997.
Sean McDermott and Josh Allen lose one for Buffalo: It can be harsh to put the blame solely on the head coach and quarterback, but it is absolutely justified after the Bills meltdown against Houston. Buffalo had the ball in a tie game at their own three yard line with 32 seconds left. Three straight incompletions forced a punt, and the Texans walked it off on a 59 yard field goal.
A thriller in the AFC North: Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow went toe-to-toe with the Ravens emerging with a 41-38 victory in overtime. The pair combined for 740 passing yards and 9 passing touchdowns, and finished off the second half with 7 straight touchdown drives. The Bengals offense is far better than their 1-4 record, but they now face an uphill battle for a postseason spot.
Trouble in San Fran: The 49ers have slipped to 2-3 on the season after their loss to the Cardinals in Week 5. Their two wins on the season were against the Patriots and Jets, and their next eight games are against teams with a winning record.

It is now time to look at the opening line picks for Week 6. It is crucial to lock in these picks as soon as possible, as there is no guarantee these odds and lines will still be available on Sunday.

Game 1: Houston Texans at New England Patriots

Opening Line: Houston Texans (-6.5)

The Texans improved to 4-1 with their win over the Bills last week, and this is a far easier task against the Patriots. New England's most recent loss was to the lowly Dolphins, and we could see Drake Maye get the start sooner rather than later. They lost to the Jets and 49ers by an average of 19 points, and will struggle to keep pace against the mighty Texans. Houston’s offense is led by CJ Stroud, and they haven’t missed a beat with RB Joe Mixon on the sidelines. Stroud mixes it up nicely in the passing game and can lead the Texans to a win and cover on the road. Nico Collins may be out for Houston, but it won’t matter who is catching the passes against the Patriots 25th ranked passing defense. Houston is the better team all over the field, and this line must be locked in before it swells to 7 points. A little under 10% of NFL games finish with a winning margin of exactly 7 points, making the -6.5 line for Houston a very favorable price.

Pick: Houston Texans (-6.5)

Game 2: Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos

Opening Line: Los Angeles Chargers (-3)

There is no universe where the Chargers deserve to be 3 point road favorites against their division rival, and this is one that must get locked in immediately. The 3 point spread will not be available on Sunday, as the sharp bettors will clue in that the Broncos are the clear play to make. Denver has won three straight games leaning on their strong defense and resurgent Bo Nix at quarterback. Nix got off to a slow start in the Broncos uniform, throwing for four interceptions and no touchdowns in his first two starts. The Broncos didn’t overreact which allowed him to bounce back with five touchdowns (three passing and two rushing) and no interceptions since. The Chargers are coming off their bye week, but even with a rest advantage this spread is unrealistic. Their offense scored 20 points combined in their two defeats prior to the bye week, and the Broncos defense will keep them in that range again. Justin Herbert should be good to go for LA, but he doesn’t suddenly transform them into contenders. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Broncos extend their win streak to 4 games, but at the very least they will be able to keep it within a field goal.

Pick: Denver Broncos (+3)

Game 3: Dallas Cowboys Over Detroit Lions

Opening Line: Detroit Lions (-3)

The Lions are field goal favorites on the road against the Cowboys this week. Detroit has the rest advantage off of their bye week, and will be mostly healthy heading into this matchup. The Lions have been competent on both sides of the football, and QB Jared Goff has been consistent in the pocket. Goff went a perfect 18/18 in the air in the Lions last game, allowing the offense to score 42 points. While the Cowboys defense isn’t what it once was, they are still capable of taming the Lions at home. Dallas pulled out a gutsy win against the Steelers on Sunday night last week, using a pair of fourth quarter touchdowns to propel them to victory. Pittsburgh is one of the best teams defensively, and the Cowboys will be fully ready to pick apart the Lions this week. It’s a little surprising to see the spread all the way at 3 points considering the Cowboys are at home. We will take full advantage and lock this in before the bookies realize their mistake.

Pick: Dallas Cowboys (+3)

Season Record: 6-5-1

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Start:	November 23, 2024 @ 8:00 PM
Expert:	Scott Spreitzer
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NFL Betting Predictions: Week 6 Opening Line Report and Picks

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