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NFL Betting Predictions: Week 5 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 9/30/2024

NFL betting predictions Week 5 opening line report Jayden Daniels Washington Commanders

The bye weeks are beginning in the NFL, as Week 5 brings another tantalizing slate of NFL football to the table. The opening lines can often be significantly different from the closing lines, and it is crucial to lock in the extra value when possible. Last week, we went 1-1 with a push on our opening lines report, bringing our season record to 4-4-1. The Buccaneers made quick work of the Eagles, but the Saints failed to cover the spread by a single point against the Falcons. Finally, we had a good example of why the opening lines can make a big difference. The Kansas City Chiefs pushed the -7 opening line but failed to cover the -8 the spread closed at. 

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

Before we get into our Week 5 picks, here are the biggest stories stealing headlines from Week 4. 

  • The Bengals have life: Joe Burrow and the Bengals kept their season alive with a 34-24 victory over the Carolina Panthers. Cincinnati still has major problems on defense, but an 0-4 start would’ve effectively ended their season. 
  • Jaguars keep sliding: Jacksonville is now 0-4 on the season after blowing a late lead against the Texans in Week 4. There are serious talks about moving on from Trevor Lawrence, as there haven’t been any positives so far this year. 
  • Vikings are here to stay: Minnesota moved to 4-0 with their victory over the Packers. They almost coughed up a 28-0 lead but managed to hold on thanks to Sam Darnold’s strong early play. 
  • Time to worry in Philadelphia: The Eagles offense has been struggling this season, and the alarm bells are starting to go off for the Eagles. Tampa Bay cruised to a 33-16 victory in week 4, while Jalen Hurts threw for just 158 yards despite trailing the whole game. 
  • Jayden Daniels is the best rookie quarterback: The Washington Commanders finally have a quarterback to build around. Jayden Daniels led Washington to 42 points against the Cardinals, improving to 3-1 on the season. During the Commanders current 3 game win streak, Washington has scored on 21 of their 23 possessions. Dominance. 
  • Chiefs Stay Perfect: The Chiefs improved to 4-0 on the season but lost WR Rashee Rice in the process. Kansas City is very thin at receiver, but they found a way to win just as they have so many times in the past. 
  • Ravens send a message: Baltimore crushed the Buffalo Bills on Sunday Night Football, reminding the AFC they are still one of the top dogs. After starting the year 0-2, the Ravens have rebounded nicely to get back to .500. 

The Week 5 opening lines are now live, and it is crucial to lock in your picks for the weekend as soon as possible. An extra point or two can go a long way in keeping more money in your pocket over the course of a season. 

Game 1: Cleveland Browns at Washington Commanders 

Opening Line: Washington Commanders (-3.5)

These two teams are heading in complete opposite directions, and this spread isn’t wide enough to reflect that fact. The Cleveland Browns only win of the season came against the 0-4 Jaguars, and they have since lost back-to-back games against the 1-3 Giants and 2-2 Raiders. Deshaun Watson is in danger of getting benched, as the former Texan has been unable to settle in for Cleveland. Across the field, the story couldn’t be more different. After a decade of inconsistency at quarterback, it looks as though the Commanders finally have their guy. Jayden Daniels has led Washington to their first three game win streak since 2022, scoring on 21 of their 23 drives. His ability to run out of the pocket has been exceptional, but that isn’t why they are finding success. It has actually been the accuracy from the arm of Daniels that has been the difference-maker. Daniels has stayed in the pocket for longer, kept his head up, and has been finding his targets down the field. The Washington defense still needs work, but they were able to slow down Kyler Murray and the Cardinals on the road. Northwest Stadium will be bouncing on Sunday afternoon, and another double-digit victory for Washington appears to be on the cards. 

Pick: Washington Commanders (-3.5)

Game 2: Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars

Opening Line: Indianapolis Colts (+2.5)

This line is based on the assumption the Jacksonville Jaguars will play substantially better than we have seen them all season long. While that could certainly happen, it’s a little too far from reality to be justified. Jacksonville is 0-4 with very little chance to play meaningful football in January. Trevor Lawrence has completed 53% of his passes this season with a 78.9 QBR. The Colts may not be a Super Bowl contender, but they can keep it close, if not win outright against the lowly Jaguars. Anthony Richardson went down with an injury in Week 4, but Joe Flacco stepped up and scored 27 points against a tough Steelers defense. Flacco doesn’t have the same upside as Richardson, but his floor is also a lot higher. Flacco will do a solid job at managing the game and will take advantage of any over-aggressive Jaguars looking to cut off routes. Jacksonville will be playing with desperation, but that doesn’t always translate to positive results. 

Pick: Indianapolis Colts (+2.5)

Game 3: Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers 

Opening Line: Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)

The Steelers defense was unlocked by Joe Flacco and the Colts in Week 4, and it’s hard to see them shutting down the Dallas Cowboys in Week 5. The Steelers have used a dominant defense to hide their lackluster offense for years, but this is a nightmare matchup for them. Dak Prescott has been effective with the ball, and the Cowboys will have extra rest after playing on Thursday night in Week 4. A fully rested Dallas offense will be able to find some success against the Steelers, but the same can’t be said for Pittsburgh. Justin Fields has started to see some of his old habits flare up with the Steelers, and I just don’t trust him to manage a primetime game against the Cowboys. Pittsburgh’s defense will make some game changing plays, but they still don’t deserve to be favorites against a team like Dallas. 

Pick: Dallas Cowboys (+2.5)

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