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NFL Betting Predictions: Week 3 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 9/16/2024

NFL betting predictions Week 3 opening line report Jordan Love Green bay Packers

The second week of NFL action is now behind us, and there is no time to waste in locking in your NFL Week 3 picks. A one-point difference between the opening and closing lines may not appear to make a difference, but that critical extra value can be the difference between winning and losing in the long run. By locking in your Week 3 picks now, you can avoid worrying about line movement as the games inch closer. Last week, we went 2-1 with our opening lines picks. The Commanders and Bears both got the cover by a single point, while the Rams got smashed by Arizona, costing us the sweep. 

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Before we get into our Week 3 picks, let’s take a look at the biggest storylines from an exhilarating slate of Week 2 games. 

  • Down goes Tua: The Dolphins not only lost to the Bills on Thursday night, but they also lost their starting quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa. Tagovailoa suffered another concussion, and there is no timeline for his return. 
  • Panthers keep sinking: The Carolina Panthers generated only 159 yards of total offense against the Chargers, losing 26-3 at home. Bryce Young hasn’t looked good, but he’s also getting no help from his team. There are really no positives for Carolina right now. 
  • The Saints mean business: It was easy to dismiss the 47-point outburst against the Panthers, but the Saints kept their foot on the gas, scoring 44 points in Dallas against the Cowboys. Derek Carr had the ball five times in the first half, and the Saints scored 5 touchdowns. Dominance. 
  • Still hope for Green Bay: The Packers got a massive win against the Colts. Jordan Love remained out, but his return is now imminent. The Packers ran the football 53 times against the Colts, avoiding the dreaded 0-2 hole. If Love can get back on the field soon, Green Bay has a real chance at stealing the NFC North. 
  • Ravens get shocked: The Las Vegas Raiders pulled off a massive upset against the Ravens, winning 26-23. Baltimore is suddenly 0-2 with games against the Cowboys, Bills, and Bengals taking them into Week 5. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens have a big hill to climb. 
  • No Achilles? No Problem: After shocking Week 1 outings from Aaron Rodgers, Joe Burrow, and Kirk Cousins, the trio of injured quarterbacks looked much better in Week 2. The Jets pulled out a big win against the Titans, while the Bengals lost by a single point to the Chiefs. 
  • Time to panic Chicago: Caleb Williams has yet to find the endzone for Chicago, falling short of the lofty preseason expectations. The Bears defense bailed them out in Week 1. However, without a competent offense, they will continue to slip down the NFC standings. 

Let’s jump into the Week 3 opening line picks. It is crucial to secure these lines as soon as possible, as there is no guarantee they will still be available when the games kick off on Sunday. 

Game 1: Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans 

Opening Line: Tennessee Titans (-2.5)
The Titans are coming in as home favorites against the Packers, but the wrong team is favored in this matchup. Green Bay was able to run the ball effectively against the Colts, and they will shred apart the Titans run defense in Week 3. RB Josh Jacobs led the way with 132 rushing yards, helping the Packers run the ball a whopping 53 times. Tennessee has no real playoff ambitions and lacks the offense to respond to Green Bay’s run game. Will Levis makes too many mistakes to be trusted, and the Titans don’t have a workhorse running back like Derrick Henry anymore. Jordan Love is still injured for the Packers, but there is even a small chance he plays in Week 3. It is crucial you lock in this pick immediately, as this line will either hold firm, or drift closer to the Packers as injury news gets released. 

Pick: Green Bay Packers (+2.5)

Game 2: Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

Opening Line: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5)

The Buccaneers pulled off the upset against the Lions as 7.5-point underdogs and will be looking to improve to 3-0 against the Broncos. Baker Mayfield has looked fantastic in a Buccaneers uniform, throwing for 5 touchdowns and one interception this season. He finds his reliable receivers like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and delivers the ball with extreme accuracy. The Tampa Bay offense will run straight by the Denver defense, and the Broncos have no way to reply. Denver scored just 6 points in Week 2, and it’s hard to see them finding success now that they hit the road. Bo Nix is far too inconsistent to be trusted, and the Broncos have an abysmal run game to complement their lackluster passing attack. The fact this line is still under a touchdown cannot be  ignored, as there is plenty of value on a -6.5 point spread over a -7 or -7.5. The Buccaneers will run up the scoreboard in the first half, and the Broncos will helplessly wait for the final whistle. 

Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5)

Game 3: Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings

Opening Line: Houston Texans (-2)

One of these 2-0 teams will get their first loss in this matchup, and it will be the Minnesota Vikings. The Houston Texans have a very balanced offense, with second year quarterback CJ Stroud leading the way. Stroud has looked good to kick off his sophomore season, and he has a multitude of weapons at his disposal. Stefon Diggs joins a talented set of receivers, giving the Texans yet another offensive weapon. Their defense bounced back nicely from the 27 points allowed in Week 1, and they are now tasked with Sam Darnold in Week 3. Darnold is off to the best start of his career in Minnesota, but it’s too early to start giving him too much credit. His 111.8 passer rating is by far the highest of his career, with his previous best being only 92.6. When Darnold inevitably regresses, the Vikings will too. This measly -2 point spread is nothing to get concerned about, as almost any Texans win will get the cover too. 

Pick: Houston Texans (-2)

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