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NFL Betting Predictions: Week 18 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 1/2/2024

NFL betting predictions Week 18 opening line report Tyreek Hill Miami Dolphins

The final week of the NFL regular season is upon us, and there is still plenty of meaningful football to be played. Nine of the 14 playoff spots have been clinched, with 11 teams vying for the 5 remaining postseason berths. Last week, we went 2-0-1 on our picks, bringing our season record to 25-23-3. Barring an 0-3 Week 18, we will finish in the green for the second consecutive regular season. The Ravens easily covered the 4-point spread in their rout of the Dolphins, and the Giants stayed within the +6.5-point spread, after losing to the Rams by a single point. The Raiders scored a meaningless last-minute touchdown to secure the backdoor push, falling to the Colts 23-20. Before we get into a tantalizing Week 18 slate, where 13 of the 16 games have playoff implications attached to their result, here are the biggest storylines of Week 17.

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  • Cowboys get lucky: The refs certainly helped the Cowboys out in their Week 17 victory over the Lions. And coupled with a stunning Eagles loss to the lowly Cardinals, Dallas simply has to beat the Washington Commanders (who’ve lost 8 in a row) to clinch the NFC East crown. 
  • Ravens make a statement: After beating the Super Bowl favorite 49ers in Week 16, the Ravens picked up where they left off, dominating the Dolphins 56-19. Lamar Jackson cemented his MVP case with 5 touchdowns and a perfect passer rating, while Baltimore secured the number 1 seed in the AFC. 
  • AFC South goes down to the wire: The Texans, Colts, and Jaguars are all sitting at 9-7 and are faced with ‘win and in’ Week 18 matchups thanks to a trio of Week 17 victories. The Colts and Texans get the festivities started in a crucial Saturday night matchup, before Jacksonville will have the chance to win the division regardless of the result Sunday afternoon. 
  • Tomlin extends his streak: The Steelers picked up their second straight victory in Week 17 to not only keep their playoff hopes alive, but to ensure Mike Tomlin streak of winning seasons was extended to 17 years. While the Steelers won’t be challenging for a Super Bowl this season, the fact they are still alive in Week 18 with the 27th ranked offensive unit is remarkable.
  • Chiefs find a way to win: Harrison Butker kicked 6 field goals to ensure the Chiefs walked away with a victory and their 8th straight AFC West crown. Their juggernaut offense is no more, but a strong defensive unit will ensure their reigning champs stay competitive with the top dogs in the AFC. 

With Week 17 in the rearview mirror, it’s time to look at the final regular season week of the year. There are plenty of ‘must win’ games across the league, with playoff seeding and qualification on the line for several franchises. There is just one spread of 6+ points (sorry Commanders fans), as there are plenty of tight divisional matchups on tap.

Game 1: Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
Opening Line: New Orleans Saints (-3.5)

The loser of this one will be eliminated from playoff contention, while the winner has no guarantees they will have done enough to earn a playoff berth themselves. Regardless of the scores around the league, these two teams will be playing at maximum effort throughout, and I trust the home team to pull out a win and cover. These two teams match up very evenly, as they have the 19th and 20th ranked offenses, the 12th and 13th ranked defenses, and a combined 15-17 record. The path to the NFC South title has not been a difficult one, as the eventual champion will have, at best, a 9-8 record. There are a few reasons I’ll be backing the Saints here. First, the home and road splits for the Falcons are jarring, and this one is taking place in New Orleans. They are just 2-6 on the road this season, having dropped 5 straight games outside Atlanta. Taylor Heinicke has labeled himself as a road warrior throughout his career. However, in this must-win game for both teams, I expect the young gunslinger to either edge out a win, or get over aggressive, turn the ball over, and lose by double digits. I’ll be banking on the latter happening. Since Week 2, all of the Saints wins have been by 7+ points, and I’ll happily lay the 3.5 points with the home team in a critical Week 18 tilt.

Pick: New Orleans Saints (-3.5)

Game 2: LA Rams at San Francisco 49ers 

Opening Line: San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)

If this game were in the thick of the regular season, the spread would be much wider than this. However, with the 49ers having clinched the number 1 seed in the NFC, while the Rams are still jostling for both seeding, and are desperate to keep their late season momentum alive, this one should be close. The 49ers were decimated with injuries in the NFC Championship Game last season and will not be eager to throw their stars out there in a meaningless game. Christian McCaffrey’s absence has already been announced, and it wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest to see their superstars sit in the second half. Meanwhile, while the Rams have something to play for; the difference between playing the NFC East winners with a loss, and the inexperienced Detroit Lions with a win, is monumental. Matthew Stafford has all the tools he needs to run an efficient offense. And when the 49ers inevitably start pulling guys, this cover will remain within reach. The Rams breakout stars in Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams will keep rolling until the clock hits 0’s, and the Rams will keep this one close, if not win outright.

Pick: LA Rams (+3.5)

Game 3: Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins 

Opening Line: Buffalo Bills (-3)

The winner of this one takes home the AFC East crown, and the Bills are slight road favorites to do so. Despite a big Week 16 win over the Cowboys, the Dolphins are back to being called frauds after getting demolished by the Ravens. Their ability to flex their offensive muscles on weak opposition has seen them put 11 wins on the board this season, 10 of which were against sub .500 teams. Unfortunately, while their offense will be their usual selves, their weak defense got even weaker, after losing Bradley Chubb for the rest of the season, and Xavien Howard for Week 18. Tua Tagovailoa will need to put up a boatload of points to get the job done, and I believe he can do just that. The Bills are the real frauds in this game. The mass media is happy to overlook the inconsistent play from Josh Allen, the massive injuries on defense including MLB and defensive captain Matt Milano, and mediocre 4th quarter play from the team as a whole. The Bills may have won 4 straight games to set up this season defining tilt, but one score wins over the Chargers and Patriots will not fill Bills Mafia with confidence. Buffalo may have gotten the better of Miami in the first matchup, but there is absolutely no way I’m leaving these points on the table with the home underdog. The Dolphins are 7-1 at home this season, while the Bills are just 3-4 on the road. I’m honestly shocked that the Dolphins are underdogs and will snap up this full field goal while we still can. As the market settles throughout the week, the critical number of 3 is unlikely to remain available by the time kick off rolls around.

Pick: Miami Dolphins (+3)

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