NFL Betting Predictions: Week 17 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 12/23/2024

NFL betting predictions Week 17 opening line report Jayden Daniels Washington Commanders

Using the opening lines can be one of the most effective ways of consistently coming out on top against the sportsbooks. Securing closing line value can give you an extra edge in the NFL, as the closing lines are often some of the sharpest prices in sports betting. Last week, we slipped into the negatives with a 1-2 showing. As we inch closer to securing another winning season, the Los Angeles Rams took care of business against the lowly Jets as three-point favorites. The two losses were with the Steelers (+5.5) and the Buccaneers (-4), who lost to the Ravens and Cowboys, respectively. Our season record has dropped to 24-17-1, but plenty of options are available for our Week 17 NFL picks.

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The playoff berths could be wrapped up this week, as just two games remain in the regular season. Before we jump into the penultimate opening lines report, here are the biggest storylines from a pivotal Week 16 of NFL action.

Mahomes can do it all: Patrick Mahomes was listed week to week with an ankle sprain but made a surprising start on Saturday. His ankle looked usable as he scurried for a 15-yard touchdown to open the scoring in the Chiefs 27-19 victory.
Take a bow Jayden Daniels: The dramatic turnaround for the Washington Commanders is something not even the most optimistic fans could have predicted. Jayden Daniels had his signature game of the season in Washington’s 36-33 victory over the playoff-bound Eagles. He became the first rookie quarterback to throw five touchdowns with 65 rushing yards in NFL history.
Bengals stay alive: Cincinnati has ripped off three straight wins to keep their playoff hopes alive. They have another must win game in Week 17, with a massive faceoff against the Denver Broncos. Joe Burrow and the offense have been rolling, and their defense has been able to step up down the stretch to reward their signal caller’s efforts.
Vikings are here to stay: Absolutely nobody wants to match up with the Minnesota Vikings in the playoffs. Their defense is truly elite, and the quarterback play from Sam Darnold has been jaw-dropping. They moved to 13-2 with their victory over the Seahawks, and have the Packers and Lions left on their schedule. Cinema.
They won, but at what cost? A meaningless win for the Las Vegas Raiders has moved them from the first overall pick down to sixth. There will never be any tanking on the field as NFL job security is as flimsy as ever, but the front office is certainly not happy.
Hats off to Mike McCarthy: The Dallas Cowboys head coach rightfully received plenty of criticism for his team’s play, but he has turned things around this season. Cooper Rush and the Cowboys have won four of their last five games to move to 7-8.

The final two weeks of NFL football are always filled with drama, and this year will be no exception. The importance of playoff seeding cannot be overemphasized, as teams look to solidify home field advantage down the stretch. All 32 teams are in action to close out the season, and here are the three opening lines that must be scooped up immediately. All three picks are favorites, but these point spreads could swell even higher in the coming days.

Game 1: New York Jets at Buffalo Bills

Opening Line: Buffalo Bills (-9.5)

It is no surprise to see the Buffalo Bills as home favorites against the New York Jets, but a single digit point spread is once again giving the Jets too much credit. Fading New York has been an excellent strategy this season, as they are just 4-12 against the spread this season. Aaron Rodgers is getting the kind of lines he got while in his prime, and it’s not hard to see the current Rodgers is a bottom half starting quarterback. Buffalo has the MVP frontrunner starting under center for them and will be hoping they can still chase down the Kansas City Chiefs for the top spot in the AFC. There is no denying this is a thick point spread, and it has to be stated that the Bills last three games have been decided by 6 or fewer points. However, a game against the Jets will give the Bills a chance to run up the score in their final home game of the regular season.

Pick: Buffalo Bills (-9.5)

Game 2: Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns

Opening Line: Miami Dolphins (-6)

The Bengals have given up 20+ points in 12 of their last 15 games this season. The only teams to not reach that mark were the New York Giants, the Cleveland Browns, and the Cleveland Browns again. Dorian Thompson-Robinson proved to not be an upgrade over Jameis Winston in Cleveland, and the Browns scored just 6 points against one of the worst defenses in the league last week. The Dolphins defense is not an elite unit, but they are still a middle of the pack defense taking on a rock-bottom offense. Miami still has life in the playoff race and will look to run up the score against the Browns this week. Tua Tagovailoa has been exceptional over the last month, and it’s hard to see this game staying within one score. Cleveland is outmatched on both sides of the ball and has little to no motivation to dig deep and play spoiler. Miami struggles in cold weather, but temperatures of 50+ degrees are expected in Cleveland this weekend. As long as the Dolphins don’t get caught by a cold front, this screams a double digit win for Miami.

Pick: Miami Dolphins (-6)

Game 3: Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders

Opening Line: Washington Commanders (-4.5)

The Washington Commanders fanbase is on cloud nine after a massive win against the Eagles in Week 16. This team is hard to recognize compared to their 4-13 record last season, and the credit doesn’t go to just Jayden Daniels. Head coach Dan Quinn is facing off against his former team on Sunday Night Football and will be eager to book a postseason position with a victory. Quinn has turned a Washington defense ranked dead last a year ago into a top-half unit this season. Once you couple that with the explosive play from rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, it is no surprise to see Washington in this position. The Falcons are rolling out a rookie quarterback of their own in Michael Penix Jr. Penix Jr. made his first start last week and instantly transformed a lifeless Falcons offense. His mobility opened up the field for the run game, and it allowed Atlanta to cruise to a big win. This game has huge playoff implications, and while the Falcons will not go down without a fight it will be Washington that emerges with the victory. The Commanders are an unstoppable offense, and Penix Jr. cannot be trusted to deliver when his team needs him most. These may be two rookie quarterbacks, but the experience of Jayden Daniels gathered this season will give him a playoff-clinching win and cover.

Pick: Washington Commanders (-4.5)

Season Record: 24-17-1

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Start:	December 23, 2024 @ 10:15 PM
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NFL Betting Predictions: Week 17 Opening Line Report and Picks

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