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NFL Betting Predictions: Week 16 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 12/17/2024

NFL betting predictions Week 16 opening line report Baker Mayfield Tampa Bay Buccaneers

It can be incredibly difficult to stay ahead of the sportsbooks over the course of an NFL season. The closing lines are often very sharp, but the oddsmakers can leave valuable free points on the opening lines. By securing the best price early in the week, you can not only avoid any Sunday morning stress but can maximize your chances of churning a profit. Last week, we got back in the win column with a 2-1 showing. The Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos took care of business against non-playoff teams. A pair of multi-touchdown victories allowed them to cover their respective -4 spreads, but the Pittsburgh Steelers cost us a perfect week with their loss to Philadelphia. This brings our season record to 25-16-1. 

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

The playoff picture is becoming clearer, and Week 15 dashed the hopes of some, while reigniting the dreams of others. Here are the biggest storylines from Week 15 before we jump into a crucial Week 16 slate of games. 

  • Onto next year San Fran: The 49ers came into the season as one of the Super Bowl favorites but will finish it outside the playoffs. The 49ers got battered with injuries this season, but issues both on and off the field cost them a deep playoff run. 
  • The Chiefs win, but at what cost? The Kansas City Chiefs took a stranglehold on top of the AFC with their convincing win over the Browns. However, a high ankle sprain for Patrick Mahomes could see them slide down the standings as the season wraps up. 
  • Washington widens the gap: The Commanders nearly shot themselves in the foot against the Saints but managed to sneak away with the win. They hold the final playoff spot with a 9-5 record, and the NFC Wild Card race could be settled by the end of next week. 
  • Buccaneers belong in the conversation: Tampa Bay upset the Eagles in the postseason last year and could be an underdog to watch this year, too. Baker Mayfield led his offense to a dominant win over the Chargers and is now in pole position to take home the NFC South. 
  • Another thriller for Buffalo: The Bills became the first team since 1966 to score and allow 40+ points in back-to-back games. They pulled out a thrilling win against the Lions, but their defense will need to step up if they are to make a deep playoff run. 
  • Same old Bears: Chicago went into their bye week with a 4-2 record. One Hail Mary to the Commanders followed by 8 consecutive losses has sent Chicago back to the draft room for next year. Minnesota reminded the league they are still a threat in the NFC North in their 30-12 beatdown on Monday night. 

The clock is ticking for teams to make a late playoff push with just three weeks left in the regular season. This trio of Week 16 matchups feature picks that must be made immediately, as these lines are unlikely to still be available later in the week. 

Game 1: Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens

Opening Line: Baltimore Ravens (-6)

We got burned by the Steelers (+5.5) against the Eagles last week, but we are sticking to the read and will be taking them again here. Pittsburgh does not deserve this kind of line against anyone in the NFL. A lack of flashy offensive players has heavily swayed the public’s opinion on the Steelers, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t a truly elite football team. They have the defense needed to slow down Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry; something few teams in the league can claim. On the other side of the ball, Russell Wilson has rejuvenated the Steelers offense and has turned them into legitimate Super Bowl threats. Baltimore has weapons of their own, but a 6-point spread in a heated, high stakes AFC North rivalry game makes this an easy pick. 

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers (+6)

Game 2: Los Angeles Rams at New York Jets

Opening Line: Los Angeles Rams (-3)

The Jets are finally out of the favorite role, but a close spread on the road is still way too generous. New York needed some late heroics and a +2 turnover advantage to beat the lowly Jaguars last week. That is not indicative of a team capable of going toe-to-toe with the Rams, who are desperate for a win at this stage of the season. The Jets lost 9 of their last 10 games before that meaningless win over the Jaguars, as their defense has completely fallen apart. Matthew Stafford and a diverse Rams offense will pick them apart, and it’s really hard to imagine this one staying even remotely close. The Rams have strung together three wins in a row, including a pair against the Bills and 49ers. Once you factor in the rest advantage for LA after having played on Thursday the week before, this one truly becomes a no-brainer. If you want to blindly follow Aaron Rodgers to the grave, you can. However, we will keep cashing on his absurd public image as long as he keeps getting favorable lines for unfavorable play. 

Pick: Los Angeles Rams (-3)

Game 3: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys 

Opening Line: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4)

The Dallas Cowboys have been playing better football with Cooper Rush settling in as the starter, but this spread is still way too short. Dallas has home field “advantage”. However, considering they have gone 1-6 at home and 5-2 on the road, I wouldn’t put too much into the venue. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have won four games in a row, yet they are still being undervalued every week. Were some of those wins against bad teams? Certainly. But there is no denying how good they looked in their 30-13 drubbing of the previously 8-5 Chargers. Baker Mayfield has been given all the time he wants in the pocket, and it has allowed his talented receivers to get open down the field. Mike Evans is 251 yards away from 1,000 on the season despite missing three games with a hamstring injury. The Buccaneers have shown time and time again that they can beat anyone in the league, while the Cowboys are already looking at next season. This is a very manageable spread that could grow as high as a touchdown by the time these two teams meet on Sunday night. 

Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4)

Season Record: 23-15-1

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