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NFL Betting Predictions: Week 15 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 12/10/2024

NFL betting predictions Week 15 opening line report Bo Nix Denver Broncos

One of the most effective ways to consistently churn a profit on the NFL mainlines is by finding value in the opening lines. The closing lines are often very sharp each week, but the oddsmakers can leave a couple of extra points dangling early in the week. Last week, we had our 5-week win streak snapped with a 1-2 showing. The Steelers took care of business against the Browns, easily covering the -6 spread. However, the Dolphins won by 6 points when the spread was -6.5, and the Bears got blown out by the 49ers as 4-point underdogs. This brings our season record to 23-15-1 against the spread. 

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Week 14 was incredibly eventful as the NFL season inches toward the playoffs. Before we jump into a tantalizing Week 15 slate, here are the biggest storylines from Week 14 around the league. 

  • Lions take control of NFC North: The Lions sit on top of the most competitive division in football after beating the Packers 34-31 on Thursday night. Dan Campbell’s aggressive play calling brought his team to 12-1, as Detroit looks poised for a deep playoff run. 
  • 14 straight years: The New York Jets were eliminated from playoff contention for the 14th consecutive season after they lost to the Dolphins in overtime. Aaron Rodgers is a shadow of his former self. And even if the veteran still wants to suit up, he could be out of a job by next season. 
  • The Falcons are falling: Kirk Cousins has thrown no touchdowns and 8 interceptions during the Falcons four-game losing streak. A return to Minnesota brought the former Viking no joy, as the Falcons were smashed 42-21. Atlanta no longer controls their own fate in the race for the NFC South crown and is in danger of missing the postseason after their 6-3 start. 
  • Bills and Rams put on a show: Josh Allen became the first player to pass and run for three touchdowns in the same game, but it wasn’t enough to push his team to victory. The Rams eked out Buffalo 44-42 in a game of the season candidate. 
  • Chiefs find a way again: The Kansas City Chiefs edged the Chargers 19-17 to claim their 9th consecutive AFC West title. They needed a bank shot field goal as time expired after their defense got the stops they needed late. 
  • 49ers stay alive: The 49ers came into the season as the NFC favorites, but injuries have derailed their season. A crucial Week 14 victory over the Bears kept their season alive with a 6-7 record. The 49ers are starting to get healthy, but they will need to be nearly perfect down the stretch to book a spot in the postseason. 

There are just four weeks left in the NFL season, and every game is crucial for the Super Bowl hopefuls. All 32 teams are back in action, giving us plenty of options for our opening line picks this week. Make sure you lock these in immediately, as there is no guarantee these prices will still be available when Sunday rolls around. 

Game 1: Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns

Opening Line: Kansas City Chiefs (-4)

The Kansas City Chiefs needed a doink field goal to pick up the win against the Chargers last week, but there will be no sweating their victory over the Browns this week. Patrick Mahomes will always steal the spotlight for the Chiefs, but it has been their incredible defensive play that has brought them to 12-1 this season. The Chiefs have held their opponents to 17 or fewer points in three of their last four victories. Cleveland doesn’t have the dominant defense they once did anymore. And with Jameis Winston at quarterback, they will struggle to move the ball down the field. The Browns have absolutely nothing to play for, while the Chiefs are fighting for the top seed in the AFC. While the last two Kansas City 2-point victories at home will not be filling the public with confidence, the Chiefs are still a dominant NFL team. This short line feels like a real overreaction to some shaky Chiefs wins, as it implies this will be a close game right down to the wire. Kansas City is better on both sides of the ball, and they will make sure they are up at least a touchdown as the clock winds down. 

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs (-4)

Game 2: Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos 

Opening Line: Denver Broncos (-4)

The second game of the week has an identical spread, and we will be taking the favorite once again. Denver and Indianapolis are simply not in the same tier this season, as the Broncos look poised to make a deep playoff run. Indianapolis has been forced to battle through injuries at quarterback this season, and Anthony Richardson is still very underdeveloped. Across the field, the Broncos appear to have found their quarterback of the future in Bo Nix. Nix is the second favorite behind Jayden Daniels to win Rookie of the Year, as he has gotten better and better with each passing week. He’s thrown 9 touchdowns and 2 interceptions in his last four games. The Colts do a great job at stuffing the run, and the Broncos have shown no hesitation in giving Nix 40+ dropbacks per game. The Broncos will do their job on the defensive side of the ball, as this is a high stakes matchup for them in the race for a Wild Card spot. These two teams are trending in opposite directions, the Broncos have home field advantage, and this spread is more than manageable for Denver to get the cover. All and all, lay the points with the hosts. 

Pick: Denver Broncos (-4)

Game 3: Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles

Opening Line: Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5)

Two of the most physical teams in the league go toe to toe this weekend for what promises to be a fantastic football game. Philadelphia has won 9 straight games, while the Steelers have won 7 of their last 8. Both of these teams have balanced offenses with punishing defenses, and we are in for a real treat on Sunday afternoon. The Steelers continue to be underestimated, and there is no reason this spread should be so wide against anyone in the league. Pittsburgh has had a strong defense for the last decade, and a competent quarterback has transformed them into legitimate contenders. Russell Wilson has been excellent since joining the Steelers and will keep this game close right down to the final whistle. Philadelphia has gotten into the habit of starting games slowly. They may still be able to win outright if they dig themselves an early hole, but covering this -4.5 point spread will be a whole other story. 

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers (+4.5)

Season Record: 23-15-1

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