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NFL Betting Predictions: Week 14 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 12/3/2024

NFL betting predictions Week 14 opening line report Josh Allen Buffalo Bills

Staying ahead of the NFL oddsmakers is one of the hardest tasks in the world of sports betting. The closing lines are often very sharp, but there are plenty of opportunities with the opening lines to churn a profit. Even an extra half-point could be the difference between winning and losing in the long run. Last week, we posted the fifth consecutive winning week, going 2-1 against the spread. The Las Vegas Raiders easily covered the +13 point spread on Friday, before Washington’s early 28-0 lead ensured the -5.5 point spread was never in question. Our lone defeat was in the Ravens vs Eagles matchup, where kicking problems cost Baltimore the win and cover. There have been no signs of slowing down in the NFL, and last Week 13’s results bring our season record to 22-13-1 against the spread. 

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The playoff picture is beginning to take shape. Before we get into Week 14’s opening lines, here are the biggest storylines from an impactful Week 13. 

  • That’s curtains for Chicago: The Bears had a chance to pull off a big comeback against the Lions on Thanksgiving, but poor clock management cost them the game. Matt Eberflus has been relieved of his duties, as the front office desperately looks ahead to next season. 
  • Chiefs find a way: Kansas City was on the brink of falling to the lowly Raiders, but a late fumble allowed them to eke out a win. The Chiefs keep finding ways to win games, but this side is far less dominant than their last two Super Bowl-winning sides. 
  • What’s wrong in Atlanta? The Falcons looked poised to cruise to an NFC South title, but three straight losses have allowed the Buccaneers to claw back to a level 6-6 record on top of the division. Kirk Cousins looks lost in the pocket for the Falcons, as Atlanta is on the brink of throwing away a very promising start to the year. 
  • Bengals are hopeless: NFL teams that are not named the Bengals are 52-1 when scoring 33 or more points this season. Meanwhile, the Bengals are just 2-4. Their defense collapsed against the Steelers last week, effectively eliminating the Bengals from playoff contention. Joe Burrow is doing his part, but a 44-38 defeat has to sting. 
  • The Eagles are back: Philadelphia’s soft schedule was used as an excuse for their 8-game win streak. However, in Week 13 Philadelphia had their way against a fellow Super Bowl contender in the Ravens. Saquon Barkley continues to climb the MVP rankings thanks to his dominant play. 
  • Josh Allen is a hero: It would be hard to find a man more adored than Josh Allen in Buffalo. A classic Bills snow game delivered countless highlights, as Buffalo cruised to a 35-10 victory. Allen became the fourth player to throw, catch, and run for a touchdown after a jaw-dropping lateral play with Amari Cooper to seal the win. 


There was no shortage of action in Week 13, but it is time to look ahead at the Week 14 lines. A total of 6 teams are on bye this week, but there are still plenty of options as we look to stretch our win streak to six consecutive weeks. 

Game 1: Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers 

Opening Line: Pittsburgh Steelers (-6)

The Steelers and Browns faced off just a few weeks ago in a snow-filled Browns victory on Thursday night. While Jameis Winston played solid football, the conditions combined with some mishaps from the Steelers became real difference makers. This time around, the Steelers will have no shortage of motivation and will get the win and cover at home. Pittsburgh has a strong defense, and suddenly has an offense to go with it. Russell Wilson has shown consistency for the Steelers, and the same cannot be said about Winston. Wilson’s ability to stay calm and avoid any disastrous plays has led to countless wins this season. Cleveland doesn’t have the talent, nor do they have the extra motivation having already beaten Pittsburgh this season. Once you factor in a rest advantage for the home team, it’s hard to imagine the Steelers not winning by at least a touchdown. 

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers (-6)

Game 2: New York Jets at Miami Dolphins

Opening Line: Miami Dolphins (-6.5)
The oddsmakers are finally starting to list the Jets as underdogs after they were favorites in 9 of their first 12 games. While this is a step in the right direction, this spread is not wide enough. Miami has kept their season alive with three wins in their last four games, and cannot afford to let this one stay close. Tua Tagovailoa has been consistent since returning from a concussion, and he will pick apart the Jets defense. The Dolphins are still thawing after their frigid game against the Packers last week, but the extra rest combined with home field advantage will go a long way. The Jets don’t have anything to look forward to, and will lose by double digits this weekend. If this shifts to a -7 point spread, lots of the value evaporates so this one must be locked in immediately. 

Pick: Miami Dolphins (-6.5)

Game 3: Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers

Opening Line: San Francisco 49ers (-4)

Both of these teams have been extremely disappointing this season. The Bears just fired Matt Eberflus after his disaster on Thanksgiving, while the 49ers have lost three in a row and both their running backs are out for the rest of the season. There isn’t much hope for either of these disastrous franchises, but there is a clear pick on the spread in this matchup. Chicago will get a boost from the firing of their head coach, and the players will look to impress in their first game of a new era. The Bears are filled with hungry youngsters looking to make a name for themselves, and it’s hard to justify this spread. The Bears have won or covered a +4 point spread in seven of their last nine games, the 49ers will not be the team to change that trend. Caleb Williams is playing better football with each NFL snap under his belt, and the Bears still have a strong defensive unit. It wouldn’t shock me to see this number dip to the crucial spread of +3, and we will take them at +4 before it is too late. 

Pick: Chicago Bears (+4)

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