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NFL Betting Predictions: Week 12 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 11/19/2024

NFL betting predictions Week 12 opening line report Jalen Hurts Philadelphia Eagles

It is extremely difficult to consistently beat the sportsbooks over the course of an NFL season. However, one of the most consistent and reliable strategies to do so is by finding closing line value. By making your NFL Week 12 picks on the opening lines, you can avoid the inevitable shift towards a sharper price at kickoff. The difference of a point or two may not seem like a big deal, but these crucial points will be the difference between winning and losing in the long run. Last week, we had our third consecutive positive week, going 2-1 against the spread. The Detroit Lions -13 point spread was not a problem, as they won by 46 points, while the Steelers won outright as +3 point underdogs. Our lone loss was on Sunday Night Football as the Bengals were unable to pick up a valuable victory. This brings our season record to 18-11-1 against the spread. 

Before we get into a tantalizing Week 12 slate, here are the biggest storylines from around the league from an eventful Week 11. 

  • The Eagles keep rolling: Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles won their 6th straight game to take a commanding lead in the NFC East. They ran for 228 yards against the Washington Commanders, as their 20-point fourth-quarter explosion allowed them to pick up the win. 
  • The Jets are finished: A Cinderella playoff push for the New York Jets is no more, as they blew another late lead against the Colts this week. Aaron Rodgers is no longer an NFL MVP, and it’s time to hang up the cleats for the future Hall of Famer.
  • Steelers find a way: The Pittsburgh Steelers continue to be doubted, but they keep finding ways to pick up wins this season. A gritty 18-16 victory over the Ravens has given them a lead on top of the AFC North. Russell Wilson has turned this strong defense into a well-rounded AFC contender. 
  • More misery in Chicago: Three weeks after Jayden Daniels heartbreaking Hail Mary, the Bears dropped another game at the buzzer against the Packers. Their game-winning field goal was blocked, and the path to a Bears playoff spot is suddenly an uphill climb. 
  • Perfect no more: Josh Allen and the Bills took the Chiefs perfect season in Week 11, but their eyes are firmly set on the postseason. The Bills are now 4-1 against the Chiefs in the regular season but are still looking for that elusive playoff victory. 
  • Don’t sleep on the Chargers: Los Angeles may not be the top dog in the AFC West, but they have the roster needed to make a deep playoff run. Justin Herbert led his offense to 34 points against the Bengals, and a strong Chargers defense ensures there are few holes in this roster.

Now that Week 11 is in the rearview mirror, it is time to look ahead at the Week 12 opening lines. There is no guarantee these lines will be available at kickoff, so make sure you lock in these picks sooner rather than later. 

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

Game 1: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants 

Opening Line: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5)
The New York Giants have named Tommy DeVito as their starting quarterback for this matchup. While a quarterback change can often give a flat offense a boost, it will not be enough to keep it close against a motivated Buccaneers team. Tampa Bay watched the Falcons lose in Week 11 while they sat on their couches resting on their bye week. They are rested, getting Mike Evans back from injury, and suddenly have a real shot at the divisional crown once again. The Giants have been losing by wide margins in the last several weeks, and there is no reason to expect a close game against the Buccaneers. It’s time to start looking ahead at the draft for New York. 

Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5)

Game 2: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks 

Opening Lines: Seattle Seahawks (-1)

The wrong team is favored in this NFC West showdown. Seattle’s offense was able to outscore their woeful defense against the 49ers, but that will not be the case against the Cardinals. They needed a late Geno Smith touchdown to pick up the win, while the Cardinals have been cruising to four straight wins heading into this one. Kyler Murray and James Conner have been a lethal duo in the backfield, and it’s hard to imagine the Seahawks getting many stops on Sunday afternoon. Arizona is 6-4 on top of the NFC West, but all three other teams are currently 5-5. I can understand why the oddsmakers are willing to give the Seahawks an edge at home, but the Cardinals are simply a team we cannot step in front of. They have been playing great on both sides of the ball, while the Seahawks have been inconsistent. Once you factor in that the Cardinals are coming off their bye week, this spread becomes an easy pick to make in Week 12. 

Pick: Arizona Cardinals (+1)

Game 3: Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams

Opening Line: Philadelphia Eagles (-3)

We’re going to be taking another bird team on the road here. Philadelphia has rattled off six straight victories, and their physicality will allow them to extend that streak against the Rams. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles offensive line is impossible to slow down. Now that they have Saquon Barkley in the backfield, the task just got that much harder. The Eagles have shown they can run the football like no one else in the league, while the Rams have been sputtering in recent weeks. They squeaked over the line against the Patriots after losing outright to the Dolphins. This -3 point spread is at a crucial number too and is the perfect opening line candidate. Nearly 20% of NFL games finish with exactly a 3-point margin. This spread has a very high chance of swelling to -3.5 or -4 by kickoff, making this one that has to be locked in immediately. 

Pick: Philadelphia Eagles (-3)

Season Record: 18-11-1

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