NFL Betting Predictions: Week 11 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 11/12/2024

NFL betting predictions Week 11 opening line report Lamar Jackson Baltimore Ravens

One of the most reliable ways to consistently beat the sportsbooks is by taking advantage of the opening lines. The opening lines for the following weekend’s NFL games can shift several points before kickoff. The bookies are often extremely sharp with their closing lines, but they often leave value on the table with the openers. Last week, we went a perfect 3-0 against the spread to bring our season record to 16-10-1. The Carolina Panthers kicked off the festivities with their outright victory over the New York Giants as +5 point underdogs. The Chiefs kept their perfect season alive, but the Broncos covered the +8.5 point spread in the process (which shrank to just +6.5 at kickoff). Finally, we rounded things out with a sweat free sweep as the Arizona Cardinals smashed the New York Jets 31-6 as one point favorites.

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Before we get into the opening lines for Week 11, here are the biggest storylines from around the league as the NFL playoff picture begins to take shape.

Game of the Year: The Bengals and Ravens found themselves in another shootout on Thursday night and the Bengals came up short. Joe Burrow and the Bengals are dangerously close to missing the postseason, and a relatively healthy squad doesn’t have anything to blame but themselves.
CMC in back: The return of Christian McCaffrey might have been just what the 49ers needed to get back on track. McCaffrey didn’t find the endzone, but his return to the field is the first step in him returning to his dominant form.
Chiefs just find ways to win: It wasn’t pretty, but a blocked kick as time expired kept the Kansas City Chiefs perfect season alive. Sometimes it doesn’t matter how you win, just that you win.
Steelers are here to stay: Mike Tomlin deserves all the credit in the world for the 7-2 Steelers, and so does Russell Wilson. The Pittsburgh offense edged the Commanders 28-27 while scoring 25+ points for the fourth consecutive game.
Vikings show some grit: Sam Darnold threw three interceptions and the Vikings were held out of the endzone. However, the defense stepped up against the Jaguars to ensure Minnesota kept pace in a tight NFC North with a victory.
End of the line for Rodgers: The Jets fell to 3-7 after getting blown out by the Cardinals. Arizona has a clear path to the postseason on the horizon, while the Jets are sent back to the drawing board once again.
Lions thrive in the clutch: Jared Goff threw a career-high five interceptions, yet the Lions still beat the Texans 26-23. The Detroit defense held the Texans off the scoresheet in the second half, and the Lions knocked through the winning field goal as time expired.

A wild Week 10 is now behind us, and it’s time to look ahead at the opening lines for Week 11. It is starting to get into crunch time for the Super Bowl hopefuls, as the NFL season enters the final two months on the schedule. There are three games that have caught my eye for this week, and these lines must be locked in immediately as they could certainly shift before Sunday afternoon.

Game 1: Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions

Opening Line: Detroit Lions (-13)

The Lions needed late heroics to beat the Texans on Sunday Night, but that will not be necessary against the lowly Jaguars. Jacksonville’s defense played well against the Vikings last week, but this Lions offense is another beast to tame. Detroit is more than capable of blowing out bad teams, and a 2-8 Jaguars team with Mac Jones at quarterback certainly fits that description. The Lions already have a 13 point win over the Seahawks, and a pair of 38 point wins over the Cowboys and Titans. This is a massive spread to cover, but Detroit has everything they need to get the job done. Their offense will be eager to wash the taste of their stinker last week out of their mouths too. Detroit won the game against Houston, but they didn’t really boost their stock with the victory. The Jaguars have absolutely no incentive to win at the moment, and they will not try very hard for the backdoor cover as the clock winds down. This is a massive spread, but once the public realizes just how big the gap is between these two teams, it will climb to more than two touchdowns.

Pick: Detroit Lions (-13)

Game 2: Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

Opening Line: Baltimore Ravens (-3)
The Ravens are road favorites against the Steelers, but this line must be scooped up immediately before it shifts to -3.5. The Ravens are 7-1 in their last 8 games, including wins over the Bills, Commanders, Broncos, and two against the Bengals. They have proven they are the more complete team compared to the Steelers, and they will prove it in a massive matchup at the top of the AFC North. Pittsburgh has turned a new leaf with Russell Wilson on offense and will be able to put up quite the fight against the Ravens on Sunday. However, they are still missing that ‘it’ factor that the Ravens have. Baltimore has been destined to bring Lamar Jackson to a Super Bowl, and with Derrick Henry this might just be the year. They aren’t going to do that through the AFC Wild Card, making this an even bigger game. This is a critical number in the NFL, making this a pick that could benefit greatly from even a half a point shift.

Pick: Baltimore Ravens (-3)

Game 3: Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Chargers

Opening Line: Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5)

The Los Angeles Chargers have been able to ride their stellar defense to a 6-3 record that includes three consecutive victories heading into their matchup against the Bengals. Justin Herbert has been consistent on offense scoring 26 or 27 points in all three of those games. However, he will need to do more than that if the Chargers hope to beat a desperate Bengals team. Joe Burrow and the Bengals have been very reliable at digging themselves out of early season holes, and this is one they cannot afford to drop. The AFC North is probably out of reach for the Bengals just as the AFC West is out of reach for the Chargers. That turns this into a game with massive Wild Card implications. When the stakes are high, it has been the Bengals that have been able to get the job done. Los Angeles doesn’t have the offense to compete with the Bengals, and even a mighty Chargers defense will struggle against Cincinnati. No disrespect to Will Levis, Jameis Winston, or Spencer Rattler, but this Chargers defense hasn’t faced a legitimate quarterback in a month. The free point with the Bengals could come into play in what promises to be a back and forth showdown.

Pick: Cincinnati Bengals (+1.5)

Season Record: 13-10-1

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Start:	November 12, 2024 @ 10:07 PM
Expert:	Vernon Croy
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NFL Betting Predictions: Week 11 Opening Line Report and Picks

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