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NFL Betting Predictions: Week 10 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 11/5/2024

NFL betting predictions Week 10 opening line report Patrick Mahomes Kansas City

It is very difficult to consistently beat the sportsbooks in the NFL, but one of the most effective strategies for doing so is by securing Closing Line Value (CLV). There is a massive advantage created by an extra point or two in your favor, and taking advantage of the opening lines is a great way to lock in that edge. Last week, we went 2-1 on our opening line picks, bringing our season record to 13-10-1. The Broncos were mauled by a motivated Ravens team, before the Bengals got us back to even with their massive win over the Raiders. Jacksonville’s backdoor (+7) cover gave us another positive week. 

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

Before we dive into the opening lines report for Week 10, here are the biggest storylines from a crucial Week 9 in the NFL. 

  • The Jets stay alive: The New York Jets needed a win against the Texans to keep their faint playoff hopes alive, and they did just that. It was still a sloppy game from the Jets, but Aaron Rodgers threw for 3 touchdowns and no interceptions in the victory. 
  • Tua is not enough for Miami: Tua Tagovailoa’s return from injury was expected to jumpstart Miami’s midseason revival. However, the Dolphins lost their third straight game of the season and dropped to 2-6 with the defeat against the Bills. 
  • Cowboys keep spiraling: Not only did Dallas fall to 3-5 on the season with their loss to the Falcons, but Dak Prescott also got hurt in the defeat. Dallas still has 5 of their 6 division games on the horizon, but time is running out for a miraculous turnaround. 
  • Bengals not dead yet: The Bengals dug themselves into their usual early season hole, but they have once again started to turn things around. Joe Burrow has led the Bengals to their third victory in the last four games with their 3 score beatdown against the helpless Raiders. 
  • Same old Bears: Caleb Williams was held out of the endzone for the second straight week in the Bears 29-9 defeat to the Cardinals. Chicago had some early season life, but another fourth place finish in the NFC North is now their most likely fate. 
  • Is it finally Detroit’s year? The Lions made it look easy in their road win against the Packers. They’ve now won six straight games and are the NFC favorites heading into the second half of the year. 
  • Chiefs stay perfect: It hasn’t always been pretty, but the Chiefs moved to 8-0 on the season with their Monday Night win over the Buccaneers. Patrick Mahomes snapped out of his slump with his first three touchdown game of the season. 

Now that Week 9 is behind us, it’s time to jump into the second half of the NFL season. The trade deadline is right around the corner for what will be a pivotal slate of Week 10 matchups. Make sure you lock in these picks as soon as possible, as these lines are unlikely to still be available when Sunday rolls around. 

Game 1: New York Giants vs Carolina Panthers

Opening Line: New York Giants (-5)

The Panthers may be the consensus worst team in the league, but the New York Giants aren’t too far behind. There isn’t a world where the Giants deserve to be 5-point favorites against any NFL team on neutral ground. The Panthers are coming off a nail-biting victory over the New Orleans Saints last weekend and could string together back-to-back wins for the first time in years. Bryce Young still has lots of work to do, but a generous Giants defense will allow him time to find his targets down the field. Daniel Jones has proven time and time again he will not make the right decisions in the pocket, and his legs can only bail him out so many times. Carolina will be hungry to avoid the bottom of the standings, while the Giants may have some tanking motivation starting to creep in. Either way, once people clue in to the fact the Giants should not be 5-point favorites, this line will drop much closer to a field goal. 

Pick: Carolina Panthers (+5)

Game 2: Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs

Opening Line: Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5)

The Chiefs are still a perfect 8-0 on the season and are big home favorites against the Broncos. While it is hard to argue the Chiefs shouldn’t be favorites, a spread of more than a touchdown is too much for this team. Kansas City doesn’t blow teams out like they used to, winning by more than 10 points just once this season, and that was still only 13 points against the lowly Saints. Against the Broncos, Kansas City has won only one of the last five meetings by 7+ points. Denver got blown out by the Ravens last week, but they will be able to keep things close against the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes is dealing with a minor ankle sprain, and there isn’t really an incentive for the Chiefs to run up this score. Quarterback Bo Nix is getting better with each passing week, and he will do just enough to keep the Broncos within a score against their division rivals. 

Pick: Denver Broncos (+8.5)

Game 3: New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals 

Opening Line: Arizona Cardinals (-1)

It is time to start taking the Cardinals seriously. Kyler Murray finally has the defensive support he needs to play complementary football. This has allowed him to play simple football on offense and not feel like he needs to do it all himself. The Cardinals have won three straight games, and their only losses this season have been against the 6-3 Packers, 7-2 Commanders, 7-2 Bills, and 7-1 Lions. Meanwhile, the Jets are still plummeting down the standings, and a victory over the Texans doesn’t suddenly make them a good football team. Aaron Rodgers is a shadow of his former self and doesn’t have the tools needed to unlock a stingy Cardinals defense. Arizona holds onto a narrow half-game lead at the top of the NFC West, and will win their fourth straight game this season, covering this thin spread in the process. It wouldn’t be surprising to see this line swell closer to a field goal, as the Jets cannot be trusted against competent NFL teams. 

Pick: Arizona Cardinals (-1)

Season Record: 13-10-1

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