NFL Betting Predictions: Championship Week Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 1/23/2024

NFL betting predictions Championship Week opening line report George Kittle San Francisco 49ers

The final edition of the opening lines report is here, for what promises to be an action-packed Sunday of NFL Football. There are just 4 teams remaining, all vying for a ticket to Vegas to compete for the Lombardi Trophy on February 11. So far this season, we’ve gone a respectable 28-26-3 ATS. And as long as we avoid an 0-2 conference round, we’ll finish in the green for the second consecutive season. Before we jump into the picks, here’s the biggest storylines from an eventful divisional round:

Baltimore makes it look easy: The Ravens and Texans went into halftime knotted up at 10, but a 24-0 second half beatdown from the AFC’s top seed further emphasized their superiority. Baltimore outran the Texans 229-38 on the ground and sent rookie QB CJ Stroud packing.
49ers survive a scare: The 49ers were expected to beat down on the Green Bay Packers at home and entered the contest as double-digit favorites. However, they needed a go-ahead touchdown from Christian McCaffrey with less than 2 minutes to go to take a late lead. Brock Purdy played a solid game, and the 49ers 10/16 success rate on third down was a big difference maker.
Detroit wins another playoff game: The Lions won their first playoff game in 31 years last weekend, and they made fans wait just 7 days for their next one. Jared Goff has a very efficient game, throwing for 287 yards, with 2 touchdowns and no interceptions, allowing the Lions to cruise past the Buccaneers. Detroit has a chance to reach the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history, and the Detroit faithful will be on the edge of their seats this Sunday.
Wide right: Two words the Bills Mafia never wants to hear came up again, as the Bills missed a game tying field goal to seal their loss to the Chiefs. Buffalo looked as though they’d be able to run through the weakened Chiefs defense, but some questionable late game play calls were masked by the missed kick. The Bills were going to lose even if Tyler Bass had made the chip shot FG, as 21 yards from Stefon Diggs was absolutely unacceptable in the biggest game of his career.
The Chiefs move on: It wasn’t a classic Kansas City Chiefs playoff victory, but the Swiftie nation can take an exhale after edging out the Bills. Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce matched, and snapped, the NFL record for playoff touchdowns, combining for their 15th and 16th touchdown together. The defending champions remain a threat to win the AFC once again.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

The conference championship lines have been dropped, and now is the best time to lock in your bets for Sunday evening. The stakes have never been higher, and securing an extra point or two of value can be the difference maker between winning and losing in the NFL.

Game 1: Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens

Opening Line: Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)

Baltimore will host the AFC Championship Game for the first time in franchise history, after heading on the road in their 4 previous appearances. Lamar Jackson has virtually secured the MVP award, as the dual-threat quarterback put together another fantastic season. Not only do the Ravens march out the league’s best signal caller, but they have the league’s best defense going the other way. Linebackers Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen commanded the middle of the field, and both were given Pro Bowl nods in recognition of their outstanding defensive play. Their 84 regular season tackles a piece led the team and allowed free safety Geno Stone to step up and haul in 7 interceptions. The Ravens ability to limit any easy yards up the gut has led to countless 3rd and longs for their opposition. And while there is no better man than Patrick Mahomes to pull a rabbit out of the hat, the Ravens will be confident they can shut down the talented QB. On offense, first round rookie Zay Flowers has been Jackson’s favorite target, and the wideout was the only Raven to eclipse 600 receiving yards. While the Ravens get a bulk of their offense on the ground, a potent passing attack keeps defenses honest and prevents them from loading up the tackle box.

The Chiefs will be quietly confident they can go on the road and get another upset, as between an exuberant Taylor Swift and a shirtless Jason Kelce, they have an army of casual fans rooting for their success. While they will need to perform on the field, the Chiefs have been counted out numerous times before, and they consistently find ways to win. Mahomes has put together one of his worst seasons of his career. However, with the bar set so high, he was bound to eventually fall short. He still finished in the top 10 in touchdowns and passing yards and proved last week an aging Travis Kelce can still make big time plays when they need it most. It has been the Chiefs defense that has gotten them this far, but a nagging neck injury to Willie Gay Jr. has left a massive hole in the middle of the field. Intelligent linebackers are critical to shutting down scrambling quarterbacks. And without Gay patrolling the middle of the field, Jackson could easily pull out big third-down plays.

The Ravens are 3.5-point home favorites, and I have no choice but to side with them in this matchup. Baltimore’s defensive play, combined with MVP caliber offense from Jackson, has made them the team to beat in the AFC all season long, and Jackson has never been more desperate to secure his first Super Bowl. A shorthanded Chiefs defensive unit may have been able to scrape out a win against the perennial chokers the Bills, but the Ravens will be a completely different story. Baltimore’s ability to pound out yards on the ground will leave them with favorable 2nd and 3rd down yardages, and they will eventually pull out to a double-digit lead, allowing the backdoor cover to remain out of reach. This line could certainly climb in the coming days, so lock this in while the home team is still favored by so few points.

Pick: Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)

Game 2: Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers

Opening Line: San Francisco 49ers (-7)

Where do I even begin with the 49ers? San Francisco has the most well-rounded offense the league has ever seen, and the plethora of weapons at Brock Purdy’s disposal has seen the 49ers finish inside the top 5 in yards, passing yards, rushing yards, points, and third down conversions. Christian McCaffrey comes into most games with a price tag in the -250 range for a touchdown, which is unheard of in the modern-day NFL. The former Panther has acclimated nicely to Kyle Shanahan’s offensive scheme and has the ability to get yards inside and make solid catches down the sideline. At receiver, Bradon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel are two of the most electric wideouts in the league, and their ability to not only make fantastic catches, but rank up yards after contact, is like few others in the league. Samuel is dealing with a significant shoulder injury and is truly 50/50 to suit up, which could leave the 49ers thin at true receivers. Just when you thought it couldn’t get any better, George Kittle is one of the best tight ends in the league at both run blocking and pass catching. And with perennial Pro Bowler Trent Williams protecting Purdy’s blindside, there are truly no weaknesses in the 49ers offense. On defense, they are just as dominant. Their 17.5 PPG allowed is good for third in the league and has allowed Purdy to consistently play with a lead. While they were forced to play from behind against the Packers, if the 49ers can build an early lead against Detroit, and force Jared Goff to become more aggressive on offense, this one could get out of hand quickly.

The Lions have gotten to the NFC Championship Game thanks to solid talent and next level grit. Dan Campbell has led a very aggressive football team to countless wins this season (14-5 to be exact), and he has truly brought out the best from his roster. Goff is once again looking like a first overall draft pick, and his connection with Amon-Ra St. Brown has spearheaded a quality offensive unit. Rookie tight end Sam LaPorta has put together a very solid season, despite playing through injury in the latter stages. David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs are a devastating tandem in the backfield, as Montgomery’s downhill running combined with Gibbs’ flashy runs on the outside have kept defenses on their toes. Wild Card signing Zach Ertz may have a role to play if Laporta is unable to suit up. And despite his last second arrival with the team, he may be counted on down the stretch.

The 49ers have been Super Bowl favorites for basically the entire season. And with 2 games to go, they are a very short +145 to lift the Lombardi Trophy. While I do expect the 49ers to prevail, this spread is too long against a dangerous Lions team. Detroit has been counted out countless times before, and the fact that the spread is still at a full touchdown ensures it must be scooped up as soon as possible. The 49ers have looked beatable in recent weeks, giving up 19 or more points in each of their last 5 games against playoff-caliber teams. Expecting the Lions to either not reach that total, or for the 49ers to score 30+ points, both feel like longshots, so I will happily take the free touchdown on offer with the visitors. The fact that Samuel is truly questionable and will likely be less than 100% even if he doesn't suit up makes this play a slam dunk. Since he joined the team, the 49ers are just 8-9 when he doesn’t play, and his impact on offense cannot be overstated. The 49ers still have the tools needed to win, but they will fall short of getting the cover in the process.

Pick: Detroit Lions (+7)

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Start:	November 22, 2024 @ 8:00 PM
Expert:	Raphael Esparza (VSI)
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