NFL Betting Predictions: Week 18 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 12/31/2024

NFL betting predictions Week 18 opening line report Carson Wentz Kansas City Chiefs

Staying ahead of the sportsbooks on the main lines can be quite a difficult task in the NFL. However, one of the most effective ways to do so is by exploiting the opening lines when they are released. There can often be several points of line movement up until kick-off, and there is no doubt the sharpest prices are the closing odds. Last week, we went a perfect 3-0 on our opening lines picks. The Buffalo Bills jumped out to a 40-point lead and easily covered the -9.5 point spread. Miami had a late scratch the quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, which shifted the spread to -3, but they still easily covered the opening -6 point spread. On Sunday night, the Washington Commanders punched their ticket to the postseason with their overtime victory against the Atlanta Falcons, covering the -4.5-point spread in the process. Our season record has improved to 27-17-1, and there are still a handful of meaningful NFL Week 18 games to choose from.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

Before we jump into the Week 18 picks, here are the biggest storylines from a season-defining Week 17.

Chiefs lock up top spot: Kansas City secured the top seed in the AFC with one week to spare after they beat the Pittsburgh Steelers on Christmas Day. Patrick Mahomes’ three touchdowns improved his record to 11 touchdowns and 0 interceptions over the last 6 weeks.
Bengals stay alive… again: Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals won their fourth straight game to keep their faint playoff hopes alive. They still need to have multiple games go their way to make the playoffs, but they continue to do what they have to to stay alive.
No Hurts? No problem: The Philadelphia Eagles locked up the NFC East with their 41-7 drubbing of the Dallas Cowboys. Kenny Pickett played well until he got hurt, and even Tanner McKee was serviceable with a towering offensive line.
Where did Drew Lock come from? The New York Giants snapped their 10-game losing streak with their 45-33 victory over the Colts. Drew Lock had a fantastic game, with four touchdowns through the air and one on the ground, but the Giants draft position took a serious hit with the win.
The Vikings are legitimate contenders: Minnesota made it look easy against the Packers to set up a winner-take-all showdown against the Detroit Lions next week. Sam Darnold continues to play excellent football, and a strong Vikings defense ensures there is no ceiling for this team.
Jayden Daniels; Rookie of the Decade: Forget about rookie of the year, Jayden Daniels is the rookie of the decade. He delivered his fifth game-winning drive in the final two minutes of the game against the Falcons to punch Washington’s ticket to the postseason. This franchise has been completely transformed from the 4-13 dumpster fire from last season.

The final week of the NFL regular season is here. Teams are getting ready for the draft next year, and there is still plenty to play for on both ends of the standings. There will be plenty of jockeying before the final playoff seeding is set, and three opening lines stick out as clear picks to make.

Game 1: Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys

Opening Line: Washington Commanders (-4)

Usually there can be a justification for why the NFL lines are where they are, but I truly cannot figure this one out. The Washington Commanders can secure the 6th seed in the NFC with a victory, and that is something they will be desperate to achieve. A road game against the Eagles is a significantly tougher task than a game against the Rams or Buccaneers, and Washington will not be resting anyone in the final week of the season. Dallas has already been eliminated from the playoffs, they are missing both Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb, and have absolutely nothing to play for. Washington will be out for revenge after Dallas beat them already this season and will go all out for a meaningful victory in Week 18. It wouldn’t be shocking to see Jayden Daniels lead another late Washington comeback, but he probably won’t have to in this one. Look for the Commanders to dominate Dallas on both sides of the ball en route to a double-digit victory to wrap up the regular season.

Pick: Washington Commanders (-4)

Game 2: Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos

Opening Line: Denver Broncos (-10)

Patrick Mahomes will not be playing the whole game against the Broncos, but that doesn’t mean the Chiefs will get steamrolled in Denver. The Broncos haven’t been looking as dominant as they did earlier this season, and a double-digit spread is far too wide. The Chiefs may still want to get a few reps in considering they have a first round bye, and their defense is strong enough to keep this one close. This is still a divisional game for Kansas City, and their winning mentality is apparent in both the starters and the backups. We may not see the Chiefs take too many risks, but superior coaching will keep this one within single digits. Regardless of the current scenario, it is hard to ignore the fact Kansas City is 17-1 in their last 18 meetings against the Broncos. It feels ugly to fade a team with their playoff hopes on the line against a team with nothing to play for, but a spread like this makes it the play that has to be made.

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs (+10)

Game 3: San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals

Opening Line: Arizona Cardinals (-3)

The 49ers and Cardinals have nothing to play for at this stage of the season, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t money to be made on this matchup. San Francisco has been abysmal on the defensive end, allowing 29 or more points in four of their last seven games, including a 40 point drubbing last week. It’s equally hard to trust them on offense, especially after Brock Purdy got hurt in Week 17. Arizona has had issues of their own, but they won’t be too worried about draft position in the middle of the pack and will want to wrap up the season with a home victory. The Cardinals beat the 49ers in San Francisco earlier this season and will be confident they can pull the double over their division rivals. This isn’t a very wide spread, so a large majority of the Cardinals victories will also result in a cover. Lay these points with the well-rounded home team, and cash off fading the 49ers one final time this season.

Pick: Arizona Cardinals (-3)

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Start:	January 31, 2025 @ 10:07 PM
Expert:	Vernon Croy
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NFL Betting Predictions: Week 18 Opening Line Report and Picks

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