NCAA Football Predictions: Week 1 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Joey House - 8/26/2024

College football predictions opening line report Week 1 Ollie Gordon Oklahoma State

The long, cold (and sometimes hot) offseason is finally over. By the time you read this, Week 0 (what a concept!) will be behind us. The most "totally tubular" (shoutout to all the '80s surfers) time of the year has arrived: COLLEGE FOOTBALL. Welcome to Doc's college football "Opening Line Report (OLR)," where we dive in and analyze a few lines as soon as they hit the market. Being the first with the 12-team expanded playoffs, this season promises to be like nothing the college football world has seen before.

Here's a quick rundown for those less familiar with how sportsbooks set lines and odds. Expert oddsmakers use statistical analysis and historical data to create an initial line, which they adjust based on incoming bets, public perception, and market movements. Most people think that the sportsbooks want 50/50 action on both sides of the game to collect easy money on the vig, sharp sportsbooks will in reality set their lines in order to give themselves the best chance at profits.

Doc’s Sports offers college football expert picks for every game on our college football predictions page.

Why the OLR is Valuable

Since sports betting operates in a market-based economy, there's value in betting early. While there's risk in acting early due to incomplete information, this uncertainty can make early betting lucrative. Lines are often softer or less accurate due to the unknowns. Savvy college football handicappers exploit these inefficiencies in the betting market.

We'll examine these opening lines each week and try to extract any extra value from them. If Week 0 indicates what the 2024-25 college football season will be like, we better fasten our seatbelts because it will be a wild and bumpy ride.

Make sure to keep this in mind: Week 1 of college football is unlike any other week. Teams have had ample time to prepare and practice for their opening opponent, and most betting lines have already been posted, with some experiencing significant movement.

N. Dakota State vs. Colorado (-9.5/59) Aug. 29, 8:00 p.m. EST

The "Prime Time Hype Train" kicks off interestingly as Colorado hosts the perennial FCS powerhouse North Dakota State Bison on Thursday evening. This line opened during the summer at 7.5 points and continues to climb. If you listen to Coach Sanders, Colorado will have their hands full with the Bison. I agree with him. First, the Buffalo program has a great deal of internal strife. Colorado had the most players enter the transfer portal for the second consecutive season, with 48 players departing Boulder for other locales. While 43 transfer players joined the team during the offseason (11 on the defensive line alone), this massive turnover of players is not conducive to creating an environment of stability. Just look at what happened to Florida State in their opening-game loss to Georgia Tech. North Dakota has beaten six of the last seven FBS teams they've faced, so the ESPN spotlight they'll be playing in shouldn't faze them. Colorado's offensive line replaces four starters from a team that couldn't rush the ball last season (63 yards per game and a 2.3 yards per carry average) and couldn't protect their highly mobile QB (56 sacks allowed, dead last in the nation). Deion is fantastic for the college football business, but as a coach, the verdict is still out. I love the points here and will even sprinkle a little moneyline wager for the underdog Bison to win. PICK: North Dakota State +9.5

South Dakota State @ Oklahoma State (-10/54) Aug. 31 2:00 p.m. EST

The Cowboys of Oklahoma State are hoping to snare the Jackrabbits of South Dakota State in this FCS-FBS cross-over game. Vegas initially set the two-time defending FCS National Champion Jackrabbits as an 8.5-point dog, which has subsequently moved to 10. With 19 starters returning, this Oklahoma State squad could rival the 2011 Cowboys team that went 12-1 and finished 3rd in the country. The Pokes have one of the best running backs in the country, JR Ollie Gordon, who ran for over 1,700 yards and 21 TDs and tacked on over 300 receiving. He'll have plenty of holes to run through with the second-most experienced offensive line in the country (214 career starts returning). Cowboys' head coach Mike Gundy is 15-0 SU against FCS schools in his tenure, going 8-4 ATS in the games that Vegas posted lines. South Dakota State returns five players on each side of the ball and will undoubtedly make another deep run in the FCS playoffs in December. I believe the Cowboys will also be playing in their own playoffs, as I am calling for Oklahoma State to be one of my longshot FBS playoff teams. They start the march to December with a convincing win against a quality but less-talented South Dakota State team. PICK: Oklahoma State -10

James Madison University @ Charlotte (+6.5/51) Aug. 31, 8:00 p.m. EST

After a fairy tale beginning to their FBS history, where they went 19-5 in its first two seasons, James Madison's dreams have turned into nightmares for the 2024 campaign. It was only a matter of time before a Power Four program lured former head coach Curt Cignetti and his 52-9 record in four seasons away from the Dukes. The Indiana Hoosiers hired Cignetti before last year's Armed Forces Bowl,, contributing to the Dukes losing 31-21 against Air Force. While it's common for a departing head coach to take much of his staff and a couple of players to his new school, Cignetti took this concept to a whole new level, bringing nine coaches and over a dozen players to his new home in Indiana. The one star that didn't head to the Big Ten, first-team Sun Belt QB Jordan McCloud, transferred to conference rival Texas State. Charlotte didn't set the world on fire last season, going just 3-9 SU in head coach Biff Poggi's first season at the helm. However, they were a respectable 6-6 ATS. They return 12 players from last year's squad and are gaining a little stability in their team. This line opened at JMU -9.5 and has moved down three points towards the 49ers. While I wouldn't be surprised to see Charlotte win, I'm not calling for the outright upset, but this is one of my key plays of the week. PICK: Charlotte +6.5

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NCAA Football Predictions: Week 1 Opening Line Report and Picks

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