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NBA Totals Trending to Unders: How Low Can We Go?

by Joey House - 3/11/2024

NBA unders cashing Paolo Banchero Orlando Magic

After getting whacked the previous two Sundays by unders, Vegas did their best to ensure that didn't happen again. While they weren't a perfect 100% this past Sunday, unders still cashed at a 75% clip, with six out of nine totals going below the mark. This begs the question that is being asked among handicappers and bettors: Is the ultimate under run over?

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Background

Following the record-setting All-Star game (355 total points scored), totals have been trending massively downward. In the first four games following the break, with games that saw an average total set at 230.1, unders cashed in 16 of 24 contests for a 66.7% clip. This included the first of two perfect Sundays on February 25, where the overs failed to cash in 11 games (0-10-1).

The following week (Feb 26- Mar 3) saw an increase in the under activity, as scores went below the total 36 times in 51 games (70.6%). This amazing run included a day where one game went over and another pushed out of a twelve-game slate and the second Sunday where every game on the board went below the total.

This run of unders had been noticed by a few astute gamblers. One such gambler made two $50 parlays on Draftkings online sportsbook, one for each Sunday, in which he took the unders of each game. The first parlay paid out over $50,000, and the second one returned over 8 grand.

Finally, last week saw the beginning of a market correction, as unders only cashed in 46.3% of the games. Sunday, however, still had six out of nine games falling short of the mark.

Causes for the Unders

Besides the All-Star game that featured no defense, NBA scoring is at an all-time high. This year's average team total of 115.0 is the highest since the league started playing over 1,000 regular season games in 1988-89, partly because teams are making the most 3-pointers per game (12.9) in league history.

The first reason for the rash of unders would be a significant decrease in scoring. Since the resumption of play after the All-Star game, league scoring has decreased by 2.8% to 111.8 per team. Twenty-two teams have seen their average scoring decrease per game, highlighted by two Eastern Conference teams, the New York Knicks and Philadelphia 76ers, who have seen their scoring decrease by 15.6 and 15.5 points per game, respectively.

The second cause for totals falling below the number would be the high totals themselves. Since the gambling market is dynamic, oddsmakers will alter lines to correct for constantly changing results. Three of the first four slates of games after the All-Star break had average totals over 230 points. Since the first perfect Sunday, which saw an over/under average of 233.3 points a game, the average for each day's totals has not been over 229.3 and has gone above the 227-point mark only four times. The average over/unders moved from Sunday, February 25 was 233.3 to Sunday, March 3 at 221.7, a 5.0% decrease in odds.

How to profit from the market correction

All of this information is fantastic, but even more important is how to profit from this knowledge. The expert analysts at Doc’s have been monitoring all of the trends and have offered some insight into what to look for to capitalize on the totals market.

-Monitor the injury report: With three-quarters of the regular season complete, teams will often struggle to overcome the loss of one of their big stars. A perfect example was this past Sunday, March 11, when the visiting Sixers defeated the Knicks 79-73, going well below the total of 211.5. Both teams were without their big men, Joel Embiid for the Sixers and Julius Randle for the Knicks. In addition, Philly's other leading scorer, Tyrese Maxey, was still out due to the concussion protocol. These division rivals usually play low-scoring affairs anyway, but the lack of offense is just amplified when you remove three players who combine for 85.3 points per game.

-Keep track of schedule: Again with the idea of a long and grueling NBA season winding down, the tail end of a back-to-back game can be a very attractive target for bettors. While the offense may not score as many points in the second game, the defense will most likely surrender more points. For instance, the Minnesota Timberwolves have the best defense in terms of points allowed per game this season, giving up an average of 106.8 ppg. On March 3 they played the L.A. Clippers and lost a defensive struggle, 89-88. The next night they hosted the Portland Trailblazers. And while they won the game 119-114, they surrendered 114 points to the second-lowest offense in the league.

Here are some games that are the backend of back-to-backs. NBA injury lists are the most difficult to keep track of, so make sure you check them as close as possible to the time you place your wager.

Sacramento Kings: 3/12 vs. Milwaukee 3/13 vs. LA Lakers

The Kings have a tough week ahead of them. On Tuesday, they host the offensive juggernaut Milwaukee Bucks, who come into the game with the second-best record in the Eastern Conference, as well as the second-highest scoring offense with 120.9 ppg. They follow that up the next night by welcoming the Los Angeles Lakers, who are in ninth place in the Western Conference and battling for a guaranteed spot in the playoffs. Not only have the Lakers won three out of the last four games, including a 1-point victory without Lebron as a home dog against the Bucks, they'll have two full days to rest up before taking on the Kings. The over can be bet all the way to 232 points with comfort.

Chicago Bulls: 3/13 vs. Indiana 3/14 vs. LA Clippers

Chicago is also battling in an attempt to secure a guaranteed playoff berth and will have their work cut out for them this week on the defensive side of the ball. Monday night, March 11, the Bulls host the Dallas Mavericks and the indomitable Luca Doncic, who just notched his 6th-consecutive triple-double of scoring 30+ points, an NBA record. Two nights after that, the Bulls make a quick trip to Indiana, where they'll square off against the best-scoring and second-fastest tempo offense in the league. The next night they return home and welcome the current fourth-place Los Angeles Clippers. After the exhausting task of playing the quick-paced Pacers, having to defend against the trio of James Harden, Kawhi Leonard, and Paul George may prove too much to ask. If the total is anything less than 227, an over deserves strong consideration.

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