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NBA Series Predictions and Best Bets: Los Angeles Lakers vs Denver Nuggets

by Spencer Toth - 4/17/2024

NBA series predictions for Los Angeles Lakers vs Denver Nuggets Austin Reaves

The LA Lakers and Denver Nuggets square off in a rematch of last season’s Western Conference Finals. The Nuggets were able to sweep LA en route to their first NBA championship. All 4 games were decided by single digits, and the Lakers will be confident they can get revenge on last year’s defeat. LeBron James continues to defy Father Time and is still performing at an elite level in his 21st NBA season. Anthony Davis and the Lakers supporting cast will need to step up defensively, but there is no doubt the Lakers are capable of making a deep playoff run. For the Nuggets, they are looking to become the first back-to-back champions since the 2018 Warriors. MVP shoe-in Nikola Jokic has proven time and time again that he is truly one of one in the NBA. The Nuggets are stacked on both ends and they are the clear favorites to emerge from a crowded Western Conference.

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Denver Nuggets:

The Nuggets cruised to an NBA Championship last season, going 16-4 in the postseason to secure the franchise’s first ring. It was no surprise to see Nikola Jokic handed the Finals MVP award, and he will be looking to join elite company with back-to-back Finals MVPs. The Nuggets showed what they can do when they are healthy, and they once again have an empty infirmary heading into the playoffs.

Nikola Jokic is incredible. The Serbian soon to be 3-time MVP plays effortlessly and looks bored when he’s on the court. It’s incredible to see these star players put in maximum effort to get to the top, while Jokic looks as though he’s playing pickup with schoolchildren. His 26.4 PPG and 12.4 Rebounds, and 9.0 Assists are all team highs, and the entire Denver offense runs through him. He consistently makes unbelievable passes and has one of the most devastating hook shots in the league. His soft touch inside makes him tough to slow down, and his ability to knock down an open 3 forces defenses to guard him behind the arc. Countless times this season, we’ve seen opposing defenses lock down the Nuggets for 23 seconds, before Jokic throws up a circus shot as the shot clock expires. He is a massive favorite to take home his third MVP award this season and would love nothing more than to add another championship to his mantle in the process.

While there is no doubt Jokic is the face of the franchise, the impact of Jamal Murray cannot be forgotten. The 27-year-old Canadian has been plagued with injuries throughout his career, and he showed the league what the Nuggets can be when he was healthy last postseason. He was still only able to suit up for 59 games this season, but his shot has never looked better. His 42.5% clip from deep was by far the best of his career, and he’s facilitating more than ever, too. His ability to not only shoot, but find the open man, ensures Denver always has plenty of ball movement on offense.

A proven recipe for success in the NBA is to get 1-2 MVP caliber players, and surround them with hardnosed defenders who are lethal from deep. Denver has done just that, and they are already reaping the rewards. Jokic and Murray are true superstars, and timely shooting from their teammates makes a world of a difference. Michael Porter Jr, Aaron Gordon, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Reggie Jackson, and Christian Braun round out the Denver rotation. All 5 of them are accurate from deep and put in maximum effort on defense. There are truly no holes in this Denver team, and it would surprise absolutely no one if they were to make another deep playoff run.

LA Lakers:

The Lakers may not have the best regular season record, but they can turn it up when it matters most. The Lakers have finished no higher than 7th in the West in the last 4 seasons but have been able to make waves in the playoffs. They upset the Grizzlies and Warriors last season before getting swept by Denver. The Lakers once again showed their big game spirit in the Play-In Tournament against the Pelicans, taking them down 110-106 to book their spot in the playoffs. LeBron James may not be as explosive as he once was, but he is still extremely effective. He has turned into an incredible passer in the twilight of his career, posting 8.3 Assists in the regular season. Not only that, but James drained a whopping 41% of 3’s this season, the best mark of his career. Words cannot describe what James has done in the NBA, and his impact translates directly to his teammates. Multiple times per game, teams are sending double teams to lock down a 39-year-old James, and he doesn’t need a second invitation to set up his teammates. As long as James can stay healthy, the Lakers will always have a chance against anyone in the NBA.

LeBron James is consistent, but his co-star is far from it. Anthony Davis has the potential to be the best player in the world, but he just can’t find his consistency. His jump shot is still far below average. And while he’s a force in the paint, he needs to do even more. The 9-time All Star will be leaned on, especially when James is off the court. When he’s on his game, Davis is crashing the glass and finishing under the rim. However, once he starts going for fadeaway jump shots, the Lakers offense unravels. The better option is to find the reliable playmakers surrounding him, who don’t get the credit they deserve.

Players like D-Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves will need to make big shots for LA in the postseason, and they can do just that. Russell has been quietly having a fantastic season, draining 3 3’s per game on 42% shooting from deep. Every good team needs reliable shooters around their stars, and there are few better options than Russell from the corner.

If the Lakers can stay healthy, and clamp down on the defensive end, their future hall of farmers will take care of the rest on offense. Everything has to fall perfectly into place for the Lakers to have tangible success. However, with this roster, it just might be possible.

Lakers vs Nuggets Predictions

This series will be one of the most watched first round matchups, as it features the defending champions against LeBron James. James and the Lakers will have their work cut out for them if they expect to send the champs home early. I just don’t think they can get it done. The Nuggets are an unstoppable force in the West, and Davis lacks the footwork to slow down Jokic. While LeBron James can still have spurts of production, he occasionally falls asleep on defense. His minutes will not be at the same level as previous seasons, and the Lakers struggle when he’s off the court.

The Nuggets have the offense, defense, coaching, depth, and a superstar needed to repeat as champions. They have one of, if not the, most complete roster in the league. While this series will be much tighter than last year’s sweep, the Nuggets will eventually prevail. The Lakers played them close last year, keeping all four losses within single digits, and will get a couple wins to show for their efforts this time around.

The size for the Nuggets on the perimeter will be another deciding factor. Aaron Gordon is an extremely strong power forward. And while expecting James to get run over is a tough pill to swallow, he will get postered by Gordon on at least one occasion. Caldwell-Pope and Porter Jr. are better shooters than Reaves and Spencer Dinwiddie, giving the Nuggets another edge in offense. The Lakers will draw all the attention. And even with a few questionable calls going their way, they will bow out after taking the series down to the wire.

Prediction: Denver Nuggets in 7 Games

Best Bets:

The Nuggets are massive -400 favorites to advance, but that’s not a line I can get behind. If anyone can upset the Nuggets, it’s LeBron James and the Lakers. I won’t be taking a shot with the Lakers' nice price, as I do expect Denver to win.

Instead, we will look to the series spread. We can still get +125 odds on the Lakers +1.5 games, which is exactly where we will be going. The Lakers were unfortunate to not pick up at least a couple wins last season against Denver, and that is what is keeping this price so high. The Lakers represent fantastic value to keep this one close right down to the wire. And even if they find themselves down 3-2 heading into Game 6, I expect them to win at home to force a Game 7.

Top Pick: LA Lakers (+1.5) Games +125

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