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NBA Series Predictions and Best Bets: Indiana Pacers vs New York Knicks

by Spencer Toth - 5/6/2024

NBA series predictions for Indiana Pacers vs New York Knicks Jalen Brunson

The New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers were able to both take down their respective round one opponents and have set up a fascinating round two clash. The New York Knicks will look to lean on their rock-solid defense to slow down Indiana, who has been one of the most consistent offenses all season long. Both teams will be looking to make the NBA Finals for the first time this century, and a pair of promising young cores promise to deliver an exhilarating seven-game series.

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New York Knicks:

The New York Knicks took down the Philadelphia 76ers in round one, relying on their strong defense to slow them down. Reigning MVP Joel Embiid scored 33 PPG but was held to just 44% from the floor with a shocking 13 free throws attempted per night. Tyrese Maxey chipped in with 29.8 PPG. But what the Knicks did to the rest of the 76ers lineup is what won them the series. The Knicks prevented any of the role players from getting going, thanks to solid defensive play. Josh Hart and OG Anunoby were both menaces on the glass and in the open court. Hart played 46.3 minutes per game, hauling in a team-high 12.3 rebounds. New York’s ability to hold the 76ers to 104 or fewer points in half the games was enough to tilt the scales in their favor. Not only that, but the Knicks finally have a true offensive superstar leading their offense.

Jalen Brunson has been incredible to watch this postseason, and his 35.5 PPG leads the league thus far in the playoffs. He scored 39+ PPG in 4 straight playoff games, becoming the first player since Michael Jordan to achieve that feat. Not only that, but he averaged 10.2 Assists during those four games, all while the Knicks scored just 108.7 PPG. He has been able to drive to the hoop with lethal precision and can stop on a dime and stick a jump shot with a moment's notice. Brunson’s ability to lead the team on offense has allowed mediocre offensive players like Hart, Anunoby, and Isiah Hartenstein to stay in the starting lineup. With Brunson on offense, the rest of the lineup is filled with defensive anchors, capable of shutting down the opposition. This has transformed the Knicks into a truly elite defensive team, while still having the superstar needed for a deep playoff run. However, a late series injury to Bojan Bogdanovic will shrink an already tight Knicks rotation. This could see Precious Achiuwa get meaningful minutes, if head coach Tom Thibodeau is forced to play more than 7 players per game. With Randle and Bogdanovic now on the sidelines, the Knicks cannot afford any kind of injury to anyone in their rotation if they expect to keep their playoff momentum rolling.

Indiana Pacers: 

The Pacers took down the Milwaukee Bucks in 6 games to start off the postseason, giving the franchise a playoff series win for the first time in 11 years. Indiana was able to use their potent offense to pull away from the Bucks, who had another disappointing season. Giannis Antetokounmpo missed the entire series, while Damian Lillard suited up for 4/6 games, going 1-3 in those four contests. The Bucks can point fingers at the injuries, but what Indiana did on both ends of the court cannot be ignored. The Pacers showed that when they are on their offensive game, they will not be slowed down. In their 4 wins, the Pacers scored 120+ PPG in all 4 contests, holding the Bucks to 109 PPG. However, in their two losses, the Pacers scored just 94 and 92 points, losing by double digits in both games. The Pacers have the 2nd best offensive rating from the regular season. And when they can push the ball in transition, there is only one victor.

Indiana made a key mid-season move to bring in Pascal Siakam, and that has already begun to pay dividends. Siakam has led the team with 22.3 PPG and 8.8 rebounds so far in the playoffs, and his impact on the offensive end has been noticeable. Not only is Siakam scoring the basketball, but he’s had only 3 turnovers through the 6 postseason games, compared to 25 assists. Tyrese Haliburton has faded down the stretch, and the impact of Siakam has been crucial. He’s still struggling from behind the arc, as he has throughout his career. However, Siakam’s ability to generate his own offense in the post, all while keeping his head up for the open man, has made a good Pacers offense even better.

On the defensive end, it’s hard not to worry about the Pacers. The Bucks were a shadow of their former selves without Antetokounmpo, and with a hobbled Lillard, yet they still won two games, scoring 108+ in 5/6 contests. The Pacers were unable to slow down Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez, so I can only imagine what Brunson will be able to do to this leaky defensive unit. The Pacers can run and gun all they want. However, if they intend to go on a deep playoff run, they will need to clamp down on defense and let their offense do the rest. In the regular season, Indiana may have been able to outscore their defensive woes, but in a 7-game series against quality opposition, that will not be an option.

Pacers vs Knicks Predictions:

The Knicks and Pacers will both be quietly confident they can take the next step in their quest for postseason glory. However, for one of these two teams, this will be the end of the line. The loss of Bogdanovic may not seem consequential, but the Knicks are suddenly one minor injury away from Precious Achiuwa playing 30 minutes per night. Their current lineup shouldn’t have any problems with slowing down Indiana. And as long as they stay healthy, this is their series to lose. The Pacers rely on catching opponents on their heels in transition to succeed, and that will simply not be happening with New York. Tom Thibodeau is extremely strict with defensive responsibilities. And when the Pacers can’t score 120+ on a nightly basis, they will struggle to put wins on the board. The Knicks are built like so many great playoff teams. Their strong defense, combined with incredible offensive play from Brunson, is a recipe for success, and the Pacers will not have an adequate response. Siakam and Haliburton haven’t really been able to generate enough chemistry to pick apart a strong Knicks defense. And when the transition points evaporate, even the great Pacers will struggle to consistently break down a set Knicks defense.

Neither team has a rest advantage, having both wrapped up their 6-game series on Thursday, but New York still has home court advantage. They were able to set the tone with a 2-0 series lead against the 76ers, and I’m expecting their strong defense to be the difference maker once again.

Prediction: New York Knicks in 6 Games

Best Bets

The Knicks are coming in as shopping -275 favorites to win, while the Pacers are offering a +210 payout on their advancement. It’s hard to argue that the Knicks do not deserve to be favorites, however these odds are a little too wide. The Pacers have proven that their offense is hard to slow down, and they will undoubtedly pick up a couple wins throughout the series. They will inevitably get hot from behind the arc, making the -275 price a little too steep to take a shot with either team.

Instead, we will be looking at the series total games for our best bet. The Over 5.5 Games line is sitting at -160 odds, and this is a price we can get behind. The Pacers' hot and cold nature of running their offense will allow them to steal a game or two from the Knicks, extending this series. The only way I can see this series ending in 5 or fewer games, is if the Knicks win the first two games, split Games 3 and 4 in Indiana, before closing it out in 5 games at home. However, the -160 price tag still leaves us with plenty of money to be made, and that exact order feels extremely unlikely.

Top Pick: Knicks vs Pacers Over 5.5 Games -160

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