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NBA Series Predictions and Best Bets: Indiana Pacers vs Boston Celtics

by Spencer Toth - 5/21/2024

NBA series predictions and best bets for Indiana Pacers vs Boston Celtics Tyrese Haliburton

The Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers square off with a place in the NBA Finals on the line. Boston has cruised into the third round, winning both their previous series in five games. They are the clear title favorites and will be confident their deep lineup can continue the search for their first championship since 2008. The Pacers have a high-flying offense capable of making this one interesting. Indiana struggles on the defensive end, but a barrage of three’s can make up for their defensive deficiencies. Can the Celtics continue to rise to the occasion, or will it be another heartbreaking playoff run for the Boston faithful?

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Boston Celtics

The Celtics have one of the most well-rounded lineups in the league. Boston can dominate on the offensive end and clamp down on defense to get stops when they need it most. They have a strong starting five and capable role players coming off the bench to deliver clutch shots while the starters are resting. Through the first 10 games of the playoffs, it feels like we haven’t really seen what the Celtics are capable of. They cruised to easy wins over the Miami Heat and Cleveland Cavaliers, with 7 of their 8 wins coming by double digits. It must be noted, Jimmy Butler missed the entire series for Miami, and Cleveland didn’t have Jarrett Allen for the whole series, and Donovan Mitchell missed a pair of games too. It’s not on Boston that their opponents weren’t ready to suit up, but it has prevented them from truly becoming battle tested over the last month of postseason play.

Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have led Boston in scoring with 24.3 and 23.1 PPG, respectively. However, they haven’t been as efficient as they have been over the regular season. Tatum has shot just 43% from the field and 28% from behind the arc through the first two rounds, and that will need to improve if the Celtics expect to make a Finals appearance. Tatum is now 26 years old, entering the prime of his career. He will never have a better opportunity to win a ring than this year with the Celtics and will need to step up to the plate when his team needs him.

The injury to Kristaps Porzingis hasn’t hurt the Celtics yet, but the lack of a reliable big man against a lengthy Pacers side will be an area the Celtics need to concentrate on. Al Horford is a reliable defender, and the lack of lengthy first and second round series has ensured there is still plenty of energy left in his 37-year-old legs. Porzingis could return near the end of this series. However, until then, Horford will need to continue his superb defensive play in the paint.

Indiana Pacers: 

The Pacers also took advantage of injuries in the opening rounds of the playoffs, beating shorthanded Knicks and Bucks teams to reach the Conference Finals for the first time since 2014. Indiana swatted aside the Bucks, who were missing Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard for a majority of the series, before beating the Knicks in seven games to set up this contest. New York was decimated, and it was honestly surprising to see the Pacers need all seven games to advance. They failed to lock down defensively, but their superior offense eventually got the job done.

It is no secret as to how the Pacers can beat the Celtics, and that is by outsourcing their defensive woes. The number one rated offense from the regular season is led by Tyrese Haliburton. However, it has been their scoring depth that has really tilted the scales in their favor. Indiana has a whopping 7 players averaging 10+ PPG in the playoffs, getting 19+ minutes from the top 9 players on their roster. Players like TJ McConnell, Aaron Nesmith, and Obi Toppin have been able to make the most of their minutes, and the Pacers have been able to stay fresh all playoffs long, The extra pep in their step has allowed them to push the pace offensively, but they will need their stars to deliver against a star-studded Celtics lineup.

Haliburton has been quiet so far, but he has the tendency to step up when it matters most. He hasn’t been taking as many shots as usual, but he is still shooting a respectable 50% from the field and 37.5% from deep. The Pacers frankly haven’t needed Haliburton to put the offense on his shoulders, as they have found themselves in blowouts several times this season. In addition to Haliburton, Pascal Siakam will need to regain his form, as he is critical to their success against set defenses. Siakam can generate his own offense, by either effortlessly finding a lane or pulling up for a fadeaway two point shot. Siakam has been effective, but his issues at the free throw line have been concerning. In the NBA playoffs, hitting foul shots can be a real difference maker over a seven-game series. Siakam has struggled from the line in the playoffs throughout his career and is once again sinking less than 60% of his 4.2 free throw attempts per game. Siakam can drive to the hoop, but if defenders are comfortable sending him to the charity stripe, Siakam will need to hit his free throws if the Pacers are to keep this one close.

Celtics vs Pacers Predictions:

The Celtics are the overwhelming -175 favorites to win the NBA Championship and are big favorites against the Pacers in the Eastern Conference Finals. The Pacers will be able to match the Celtics depth like few others in the league can, and this one will be much closer than expected. Indiana is a perfect 6-0 at home in the playoffs. And while they won’t have home-court advantage, if they can steal one road game, they may be able to hold home court for the outright series victory. Tatum and Brown haven’t been putting up monster numbers, and the Celtics lack of a reliable 7-footer has them vulnerable to Myles Turner. Turner is one of the elite big men in the league, as he can punish teams down low and hit shots if he is open on the perimeter. Against Horford, he will be able to muscle his way into the paint and nail easy shots. If the double team comes, the Pacers are fully equipped with shooters to punish the Celtics from behind the arc. I won’t go as far as to say the Pacers will pull off the upset, but this one will be going the distance. Boston eventually pulls out a win, but it will be in front of a nervous TD Garden in a winner-take-all Game 7 showdown.

Prediction: Boston Celtics in 7 Games

Pacers vs Celtics Best Bets:

The Celtics are whopping -900 favorites to advance, with the Pacers coming back with +600 odds to make the NBA Finals. Based on the reasons listed above, this series will be much closer than the odds suggest, but I won’t go as far as to take the Pacers' juicy odds. The Celtics are looking like a team determined to make the NBA Finals. And even though the payout on the Pacers is sizable, Boston will find a way to win, However, there is still lots of money to be made on the Pacers.

In the series spread market, the Pacers have solid odds to keep it close. They are -400 with a +3.5 line, +110 with a +2.5 line, and +250 with a +1.5 line. The +3.5 game line at -400 odds is chalky, but it’s really hard to imagine the Celtics sweeping Indiana. Even if Boston grabs a 2-0 series lead, the Pacers have been perfect at home, and their offense will win them at least one game. The absolute worst-case scenario is the Pacers go down 2-0, split the games at home, before bowing out in Game 5. However, if the Pacers can hold home court, or even steal one of the first 3 games at TD Garden, the +2.5 games at +110 is suddenly a no-brainer. Indiana has the size and scoring efficiency to keep this close, and all three of these markets are worth a bet. Boston hasn’t shown the ability to pull out close games, while the Pacers have already been battle tested through the first two rounds. The Pacers will certainly win one, if not multiple games, this series, making all three bets profitable investments.

In the player prop market, we will be looking at Tyrese Haliburton to sink the most three’s in the series at +125 odds. The biggest threat to Haliburton is Derrick White, coming in with +175 odds to lead the series. Haliburton made 45 three’s in the first two rounds, while White made 37. Haliburton had three extra games, and their 3’s per game were virtually identical. However, White was taking and making more threes than in the regular season thanks to cold shooting from Tatum. When Tatum regains his rhythm, White will see his share of the ball diminish. This will allow Haliburton, who is undoubtedly the number one option in Indiana, to get plenty of chances to pull away in this market. The +125 price tag still leaves plenty of money to be made, and Haliburton will sink the most three’s regardless of the fact his team will probably lose the series.

Pick: Indiana Pacers (+3.5) Games -400

Top Pick: Indiana Pacers (+2.5) Games +110

Pick: Indiana Pacers (+1.5) Games +250

Pick: Tyrese Haliburton Most Threes in series +125

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