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NBA Props Picks: Expert Handicapping for Thursday 3/7/2024

by Matt Zitt - 3/7/2024

NBA props picks Jimmy Butler Miami Heat

NBA Player Props for Thursday, March 7th

Brace yourselves for another big night of NBA action with our carefully chosen prop bets. With a lot of basketball to digest and research to be had, we have your back. Our picks went 4-2 last week (20-15 overall), and we will try and improve on that mark this week. There are 14 teams in action tonight and a potential NBA Finals matchup. Doc’s Sports will break down some of tonight’s best plays on the hardwood floor.

Doc’s Sports offers NBA picks for every game on our NBA predictions page.

Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat, OVER 34.5 points + rebounds + assists (-120)

I love this spot for Jimmy Butler against a struggling Dallas Mavericks defense. Butler heads into tonight’s matchup leading the Heat in scoring with 21.9 points a contest. He is also totaling 5.5 rebounds and 4.8 assists a game. Butler has covered this line in eight of his last nine games and four of his last five road games overall. Dallas has been awful against the small forward position in its last seven games, allowing the seventh most points in the NBA. In that span, they have allowed the fifth most rebounds and third most assists to the small forward position. Look for Jimmy Butler to have a monster game as he historically dominates in the second half of the season, gearing up to become Playoff Jimmy.

Michael Porter Jr., Denver Nuggets, OVER 16.5 points (-115)

Tonight could be an NBA Final’s preview as the Boston Celtics head to Denver to take on the Nuggets. I am looking for Michael Porter Jr. to eclipse his point total in this home matchup. He has covered this line in seven out of his 10 games while averaging 20.4 PPG in that span. He has also covered this line in two out of his last four against the Celtics and four out of his last five home games while averaging 17 shot attempts per contest. For the Denver Nuggets to take down the top seed in the East, Porter Jr. will have to be the third leading scorer after Jokic and Murray.

Dennis Schroder, Brooklyn Nets, OVER 6.5 assists (-110)

This is a solid spot for Schroder against the lowly Detroit Pistons, who play at the 10th-fastest pace in the NBA this season, and they rank 29th in defensive efficiency. Since Schroder has taken over the starting point guard role, he is averaging 6.8 assists. Cam Thomas, Ben Simmons, and Cameron Johnson have all been ruled out for tonight’s matchup, meaning the entire offense will run through Schroder. In his last four games, he dished out eight, nine, eight, and seven assists respectively. Look for him to command the offense tonight in Detroit.

DeMar DeRozan, Chicago Bulls, OVER 29.5 points + assists (-110)

I will be targeting DeRozan’s points + assists total on the road against the Golden State Warriors on Thursday night. In 31 road games, he is averaging 22.5 points and 5.4 assists for a combined total of 27.9 per contest. Those numbers have increased over his last 10 games, averaging 25.8 points and 5.6 assists. He has surpassed this total in 10 of his last 15 games for the Bulls. Chicago and Golden State have played once already this season, back in January, where DeRozan dropped 39 points and dished out five assists in a high-scoring 140-131 loss. He took 21 shots in that game and I expect more of the same in tonight’s matchup.

Bradley Beal, Phoenix Suns, OVER 19.5 points (-110)

I will gladly take a chance on the Beal over with an increased role tonight against the Toronto Raptors defense that just got lit up for 139 points by the Pelicans on Tuesday. Devin Booker has been ruled out of this contest with an ankle injury, which should mean Beal will be more of a focal point on offense. In 33 games played this season he is averaging 18.2 points per contest. There have been six games already this year where Beal has played without Booker. In those matchups, he has posted a 31.1% usage rate and is averaging 24.4 ppg. Going against this Raptors defense should equate to a ton of points tonight as Toronto plays at the 11th-fastest pace in the NBA since January and rank dead last in defensive rating. Look for Beal to score often tonight.

Season total picks: 20-15

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