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NBA Handicapping: Does Hot 3-Point Shooting Correlate With ATS Success?

by Kevin Rogers - 12/30/2024

Hot 3-point shooting and NBA ATS success Jaylen Brown Boston Celtics

There has been much criticism from viewers of the NBA this season due to the obscene amount of three-pointers attempted per game. Even if the league has turned into a long-distance shooting game, there are still opportunities to cash in or fade teams on their three-point prowess.

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The defending champion Boston Celtics are not afraid to fire away, as evidenced by averaging more than 50 three-point tries per game. How crazy is that number, considering the Celtics attempted 42.5 shots from downtown last season on their way to the title?

Following Sunday’s action, the Celtics have covered less than 40% of their games in spite of all these attempts, which is the fourth-worst ATS rate in the league. Boston owns 13 ATS losses as a favorite of 9.5 points or more, including five outright defeats, including recent home setbacks to Indiana, Philadelphia, and Chicago.

The Chicago Bulls rank second in the NBA in three-point tries per game at 43.7, which is up over 11 attempts per contest from last season. Billy Donovan’s club is in the bottom half of the league from an ATS perspective at 15-16-1 (48.4%).

The Charlotte Hornets have won only seven games this season but have covered a shade over 51% of the time. The Hornets are attempting the third-most treys per game in the league at 42.1, but are converting 34.7% of the time, which ranks 21st in the NBA.

What about the teams that attempt the fewest three-pointers in the league and how that correlates to ATS success?

The Denver Nuggets are hoisting just under 31 three-pointers a game but are covering at a 41.4% clip on the season (12-17-1 ATS). Last season, the Nuggets ranked last in the NBA in three-point attempts per contest and owned a 47.5% cover rate, so that formula didn’t translate into ATS wins.

In the last two seasons, LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers rank in the bottom three of the league in three-point attempts. It’s not shocking that they are a losing proposition from a betting standpoint at 47% against the spread in this span, while making only 11.8 three-pointers a game, which is near the bottom of the league.

Last season’s best ATS team in the regular season was the Orlando Magic, who attempted the second-fewest three-pointers per game. However, the Magic found a way to cover league-high 51 times at 62.2%. 

This season, Orlando is up to 36.7 attempts per game from 31.3, as the Magic’s cover percentage is still a solid 54.5% in spite of top scorer Paolo Banchero playing only five games.

So who are the best ATS teams in the league and how does that relate to three-point shooting?

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Cleveland Cavaliers are each cashing at over a 70% clip this season, while both squads own the two best overall records in the league.

OKC sits 9th in the league in three-point attempts, while Cleveland is 6th at nearly 40 tries from long distance a game. 

To this point, we have covered the ATS success rate as far as attempts go from three-point land. What about three-point percentage and how that metric correlates to cashing tickets?

The Cavaliers are the top three-point shooting team in the league at 40.9%, so that obviously equates to success and their 23-4 record this season. The Magic are the worst club from beyond the arc at 30.7%, but Orlando has still figured out how to be profitable.

Overall shooting attempts are actually the biggest measure of ATS success as the top three teams in the league in field goal tries a game all are hitting at over a 60% cover rate.

The Houston Rockets lead the league at 93.8 field goal attempts per game and are 19-12 ATS on the season. Right behind the Rockets are the Memphis Grizzlies at 93.3 attempts as they are cashing at a nearly 69% clip. Sitting third is Oklahoma City, who owns a ridiculous 65-43-2 ATS regular season mark since the beginning of the 2023-24 campaign.

The team that attempts the fewest shots in the league has actually been solid from an ATS standpoint. The Brooklyn Nets are 18-13-1 ATS (58%) even though they average 84.5 field goal attempts per game. 

Last season, the team with the best ATS record (Orlando) finished last in the league in field goal attempts per contest, so maybe being more selective does pay off.

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