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Monday Night Football Predictions: New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs

by Mike Allen - 10/3/2024

Monday Night Football predictions New Orleans Saints vs Kansas City Chiefs Patrick Mahomes

Some of us couch dwellers may have needed reminding that it’s Week 5 already in the NFL. That isn’t the case, however, for the Kansas City Chiefs or the New Orleans Saints. Both teams limp into Monday Night Football this week.

Just two weeks after the Chiefs lost their star running back Isiah Pacheco to a fractured fibula, THE franchise player of the NFL, Patrick Mahomes, threw his entire body into the knees of second-year star Rashee Rice.

Just as the Kansas City Chiefs began opening up the field they lost when they let The Cheetah Tyreek Hill escape to Miami, Rice goes down hard, and they're looking like the under team they were last year.

The gumbo has been extra salty the past couple of weeks for New Orleans, as they are just two field goals away from being 4-0. Instead, they’ll need to get a win at Arrowhead with a multitude of injuries, primarily on the offensive side of the ball.

Are the Saints an elite team? I don’t think so, but this could be an opportunity to buy low on them after they’ve disappointed bettors for the second consecutive week.

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New Orleans Saints (+5.5) at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5)

This line opened up at 6.5. I wouldn't have bet the Chiefs at that price, and there is no way I am laying 5.5 on a team that's needed to fight in the 4th quarter to win each of their first four games.

At the same time, it’s hard to back New Orleans here. Their RB2 is banged up. The offensive line may be the most depleted in the league.

Point Total: 43.5

This is a primetime game, mounting offensive injuries on both sides of the ball, two strong defenses…Are you thinking what I’m thinking?

Moneyline

Saints: +205

Chiefs: -255

Saints at Chiefs Betting Analysis

The New Orleans Saints did everything they needed to do to beat the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday, except they left a minute on the clock. Even with their early success this season, I'm still not sold on Dennis Allen as a legit NFL head coach. Conversely, Andy Reid is a living legend. The gap in coaching ability and experience is as wide as it gets.

The Saints will have the ageless Alvin Kamara this week, healthy and hungry, to take some of the pressure off of Derek Carr. It won't be easy, though, gaining yards on the ground against a top 5 run defense. From there, the defense softens up slightly in the secondary, but KC still ranks in the middle of the league at defending the pass.

A Top 10 pass rush for KC is a problem for that obsolete offensive line of the Saints. Chris Jones busted the A-gap with two sacks of Justin Herbert last week. I like his chances at a hat trick with the Saints' interior line decimated.

It doesn't matter how much logic we can whip up for a bet on KC to cover a spread like this against a strong passing team, because I'm not betting on them at this number. As we alluded to earlier, the Chiefs look like they will continue to play close games, likely get the calls from the ref in the 4th, and win but probably not cover the point spread.

Saints at Chiefs Monday Night Football Predictions

However, I want to play the point total here. The Saints had a 15-12 loss to Philly when the Eagles were banged up at the wide receiver position. Philly’s defense ranks at the bottom of the league, while KC is at the top.

What about last week? The Saints put up more than 20 against the Falcons. That's true, but who had two of those touchdowns? Taysom Hill comes into this week's matchup with a bruised rib. I think both defenses choose to keep everything in front of them, as Mahomes and Carr throw two of the best deep balls in the league. From there, the time gets eaten up with a heavy dose of runs and short to intermediate efficient passes to Alvin Kamara, who has 17 receptions on 20 targets so far this year. Mahomes desperately needs to get Travis Kelce back in the mix, because the aging vet has been a ghost so far in 2024. We're good with the under as long as these two QBs don't drop a couple in the bucket for scores.

Under 43.5 Points

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