Monday Night Football Predictions: Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills

by Mike Allen - 9/19/2024

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence has never looked worse, while the Bills Josh Allen has been the best at the position through the first two games of the season. Lawrence has been terrible, though. He isn’t the right QB for his coach. Doug Pederson loves to get the ball out of the quarterback’s hands within about 2.5 seconds. So far this season, Lawrence is last in the league in completion percentage on these quick passes.

It’s not just this year, though. Lawrence ranked at the bottom of the league in red zone efficiency in 2023. Heck, outside of putting a licking on the Panthers, this team hasn’t won a game since last Thanksgiving weekend.

You can also use the same trend on the other Monday night game for the 0-2 Bengals. Since 1990, only 2.5% of teams, who started the year 0-3 made it to postseason play. The Jags desperately need this win.

Buffalo has looked great this year, even with some injuries to their improved defensive unit. On offense, they are a different team. Allen still throws a nice deep ball with a lot of arc, but relying on that style of play in Buffalo and the AFC East isn't optimal. The team is committing to the run much more early in the season. Allen had just 19 pass attempts against Miami. The team needed him to be Superman in the comeback win against Arizona, and he still threw the ball only 23 times.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+5) at Buffalo Bills (-5)

Most cappers have this game at 3.5 points, so the value is there for Jacksonville if you want it. All hasn't been terrible for Jacksonville. The defense held Miami to just 20 points in Week 1, and, on Sunday, held the Browns to just 18. Had Lawrence been able to get anything done in the passing game, they would have won. The Jags rushed for 127 yards on just 21 carries.

Point Total: 45.5

Each of the first two Jaguar games have gone under the point total, and the Bills went under last week in the win over Miami. This one opened up at 47.5. I would have loved to jump on the under there, but the sharps beat us to it.

Moneyline

Jaguars: +195

Bills: -245

Jaguars at Bills Betting Analysis

This is a sandwich spot for the Bills coming off of a huge division win against Miami and looking ahead to a potential postseason matchup six days later on Sunday night in Baltimore. Jacksonville's defense will probably keep them in this game. However, with Evan Engram questionable at tight end, it will be up to former Buffalo Bill Gabe Davis to be the difference-maker, as WR1 Christian Kirk has just two receptions on only seven targets so far this year.

If you want Jacksonville with the points, I would wait until an hour or two before kickoff. With one team and QB looking great, and the Jags and Lawrence having a terrible start, you know the public money is coming in on the Bills.

Buffalo will struggle to move the ball consistently, as Jacksonville has been one of the best teams in the league against the run in 2024. With their deep threats, the aforementioned Davis, as well as the All-Pro Stefon Diggs, both gone, now all of a sudden Allen and Bills are one-dimensional on offense.

Jaguars at Bills Betting Pick

If I'm eying the under, I'm worried a bit about the Jags' offense finally clicking. You know Pederson is breaking out all of his best plays from the book. Jacksonville, if they're smart, will run the ball to set up the pass. Lawrence isn't talented enough to win the game on his own. They need to lean on Travis Etienne early and often.

Okay, this is one of those hold your nose and click the button type of bets. Because one team has performed under their expectations, while the other has exceeded their projections, we are getting 1.5 to 2 points of value on the line. There is also the sandwich spot for the Bills, and the Jags have desperation on their side.

Pick: Jacksonville (+5)

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Start:	December 22, 2024 @ 8:20 PM
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Monday Night Football Predictions: Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills

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