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Monday Night Football Picks: Washington Commanders at Cincinnati Bengals

by Mike Allen - 9/19/2024

Monday Night Football picks Washington Commanders Cincinnati Bengals Jayden Daniels

Week 3 in the NFL may be the most perplexing. There's a reason you never see a two-game postseason series. I like Week 1 wagers because we have so much time to prepare. Then comes the classic overreaction in Week 2 betting. The sportsbooks cleaned up this past weekend. That will work in their favor this week as well, with more bettors scratching their heads and surely several already on tilt.

We have two Monday Night Football matchups for you this week. You probably heard the games will kick off about half an hour apart. We'll be hitting that back button on the remote frequently as we switch from game to game. Watching one and recording the other is out of the question, as we'll constantly see updates.

Then again, you may end up watching a lot of the Jaguars vs Bills game as most people will have Cincinnati, who's sitting at 0-2 in their survivor pools as they host the Redskins with the later kickoff at 8:20 Eastern. The Bengals can't drop to 0-3, but do we want to pay for the juiciest Week 3 moneyline?

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Washington Commanders (+7.5) at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)

This betting line got as high as (-9) for Joe Burrow's Bengals until the sharps quickly bet this one down to where we are at 7.5. I wish we could get these odds under a touchdown, but it won't happen. If you want the Bengals, I would play the number now. Primetime games get a ton of attention, and the public money mostly comes in on gameday.

Point Total: 47

We opened at 47.5. And with only about 55% of the money coming in on the under, we have only seen a half of a point drop to 47. This is a key number. I would have liked to be under it, but 48 has been a better watermark over the past five years.

Moneyline

Commanders: +290

Bengals: -350

Commanders at Bengals Betting Analysis

The Washington Commanders are, of course, led by rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels. He's been the best rookie at his position in the league by far through the first two games of the year, with 7.8 yards per pass and a 76% completion percentage for 400 yards. He's been effective with his feet, as you might imagine. However, one stat that has the potential to get weirder by the week. He has yet to throw an interception, which is great, but he hasn't thrown a TD, either. In fact, no rookie quarterback has thrown a touchdown yet this season. Caleb Williams, Bo Nix, and Daniels recently set a new record with a combined 196 pass attempts without a TD.

My money is on Williams. That kid has the highest ceiling by far out of these three. Nix sucks right now, can be good, and has an outside chance of being great. I said it in the preseason. Daniels is too small and frail. He's RG3 reincarnated and on his way to the IR. Griffin was thicker coming out of college at 6-foot-2, 220 lbs. The lanky 6-foot-4 210-pound frame of Daniels isn't going to cut it. I'm sure they're stronger than mine, but it's only a matter of time before his linguini legs get wrapped up under him as someone twice his size comes crashing down on top.

Are the Bengals the team to put his Offensive Rookie of the Year aspirations on hold?

Maybe not, but they will find a way to win this game. Burrow looked great against the Chiefs, and it took some sketchy calls and a clutch kick from Harrison Butker to beat them.

For a pick here on the Bengals, I actually like that they lost the game. They would be in a classic fade spot had they won in the final seconds. Instead, they are a team with their backs to the wall. Going back 35 years, 0-3 teams have roughly a 2.5% chance of making the playoffs in the NFL.

Commanders at Bengals Betting Pick

Let's not complicate this one more than we need to. We've already seen this game in Week 1. The Tampa Bay Bucs are a pass-heavy offense with a currently effective quarterback. They struggle on defense to stop the run more than the pass. That's the Bengals. In Week 1, Tampa focused on stopping Brian Robinson and the Washington ground game early. This led to Daniels being the leading rusher. Austin Ekeler is a halfback and led the team in receiving yards.

The Bucs laid the blueprint to beat Washington in Week 1 with a dominant 37-20 win. We can’t overreact at this point because the New York Giants couldn’t replicate that. They’re a bottom 3 team in the league.

The worry would normally be the weak running game of the Bengals. Even if they get the lead, can they keep it? Well, Burrow is so good he can pass short with enough accuracy and timing to move his team down the field methodically. Oh, and did Tampa need a strong rushing attack to put up 37 and keep a 3-score lead? No. They barely cracked 100 rushing yards, even with Baker Mayfield's scrambles. They didn't even need a big early lead. It was just 16-7 at the half. It's a chalky mess, but we have several strong angles here, not just one.

Pick: Bengals (-7.5)

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