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Monday Night Football Picks: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs

by Mike Allen - 10/31/2024

Monday Night Football picks for Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Kansas City Chiefs Kareem Hunt

It's too bad star wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin aren't playing for the Bucs this week. It would have been an incredible offensive matchup. Baker Mayfield has been reborn as a Buccaneer. Patrick Mahomes is still the best quarterback in the NFL. Even the aging Travis "Don't call me Deandre" Swift showed out with a season-high 10 receptions last week.

I mentioned Tampa's skill position losses, but imagine those guys are playing. Isiah Pacheco and Rasheed Rice would be on the field as well. They couldn't make a point total high enough.

Unfortunately, we don't get that A+ fully healthy matchup, and you can imagine the betting line reflects that. Welcome to the NFL. 

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Tampa Bay Bucs (+8.5) at Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5)

If you're into basic strategy or Wong teasers, Kansas City is a nice option. That's due to the line dropping to (-8.5). Tease them down 6 points through the key numbers of 7, 6, and 3 to favorites of just (-2.5).

This point spread is underdog or pass for me, though, as is. Andy Reid doesn't care about looking good or covering the spread. That's one of many reasons he's an all-time great. This line actually opened at 10, though.

Moneyline Odds

Tampa: +350

Kansas City: -450

Point Total: 46.5

I’m much more interested in the point total for this game than a side. I’ve heard arguments for both the over and the under. The consensus from the public after Tampa’s first game without their WR1 and WR2 seems to be that they won’t be severely missed.

I disagree. Mayfield did throw for 300+ against Atlanta last week. But keep in mind, it came on 50 attempts, and he threw two interceptions. You have to give credit to the Tampa O-line, because he wasn't sacked at all. For Atlanta, that's atrocious, considering the Bucs were playing from behind most of the game. If you're familiar with the Falcons, though, you're aware their pass rush is nearly non-existent.

Bucs at Chiefs Betting Analysis

A big part of the Bucs' success on offense last week had to do with the Falcons, who have let teams go up and down the field on them all year. Once Chris Jones and company begin to get some pressure on Mayfield, those easy checkdowns to the backs won't be there.

Chiefs’ Defensive Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has had a chance to see the new-look Tampa offense. You know he has some pressure packages cooked up. The Bucs may have the most explosive backfield in football, though, with Bucky Irving and Rachaad White.

The keys for Spagnuolo will be the effectiveness of his linebackers, as it'll be up to them to corral the backs on the 3rd down screens and draws, as well as Mayfield when he rolls out of the pocket.

The good news for the Chiefs is that they’re mostly healthy on the defensive side of the ball, as are the Bucs.

I think this one plays out low-scoring. There's definitely a world or two where these two teams, even hampered by injuries to offensive playmakers, get into a shootout. That isn't the type of game Mr. Reid wants to play, though.

Bucs at Chiefs Betting Pick

The Chiefs' #1 goal, not only on defense but on the offensive side of the football as well, is to keep Mayfield from cooking. Apparently, in 2024, the only way to do that is to have him stand on the sidelines without the ball.

In all likelihood, Tampa cannot slow down the Chiefs offense. If this were Mike McDaniel's team, maybe we see the young, inexperienced, and potentially egotistical coach get into a shootout with Mayfield because he knows he has the better defense.

That strategy may work 2 out of 3 times or a little better, but playing your style of game and controlling 40+ minutes of the clock gets you the W at more than an 80% clip.

The money has poured in on the over, and it appears the books want you to bet this one to go over the total, as they still haven't let it touch the key number of 47. I think this one is 24-10 going into the 4th quarter, and we wrap things up at 27-17. The Chiefs don't run up the score, but they also don't mind letting trading some clock for a score. At least we are getting that tick-tock.

Pick: Under 46.5

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