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Monday Night Football Picks: Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions

by Mike Allen - 9/26/2024

Monday Night Football picks Seattle Seahawks vs Detroit Lions Jared Goff

We’ve seen this game already, right? In Week 1, another 3.5-point underdog NFC West team visited the Detroit Lions for a primetime game. That Los Angeles Rams team was a good one, too. They had Puka Nacua powering through and punishing the defensive backfield. Cooper Kupp caught 14 balls, while Matthew Stafford threw for 300 yards. I count that win for Detroit as a big one, especially driving the length of the field in overtime for the touchdown win.

The Lions were a bit flat out of the gate the following week but more than doubled the Bucs in yards gained, only to lose 20-16. I love what the Detroit defense was able to do to Kyler Murray and the Cardinals last week. That offense was picking up momentum rapidly until they played the Lions, who held them to 77 yards on the ground and just 13 points.

The Seattle Seahawks are soaring, somewhat, into this matchup. Somehow sitting at 3-0 in their first year without head coach Pete Carroll, Seattle may be in one of the best sell-high spots of the season. He may not have been the difference-maker when they won the Super Bowl, but he kept them competitive for nearly a decade after the core was dismantled.

I mentioned Carroll because the team hasn’t had the chance to miss him through the first three regular season games. Seattle opened the season against a bad team with a rookie quarterback. In Week 2, they let the Pats take them to overtime. Last Sunday, they took advantage of not one but two backup quarterbacks, neither of which are NFL-ready.

It could be fraud check time for the Seahawks on Monday night.

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Seattle Seahawks (+3.5) at Detroit Lions (-3.5)

The lookahead line was 4.5. That's one point of value right there. Why did it move? Were the Seahawks tested against Miami? I don't think so. All I know is that it's moved all it will toward the Lions at this point. They're the better-coached team. They have superior offensive and defensive lines, a far more potent running game, and a better defense than Seattle.

This sounds a lot like the Bills vs the Jaguars game from last Monday night. Buffalo had looked good but still hadn’t had the coming-out party. Don’t sleep on Geno Smith, though. To me, he is every bit as good as Jared Goff.

Point Spread: 46.5

Moneyline

Seahawks: +165

Lions: -195

Seahawks at Lions Betting Analysis

The Steelers' TJ Watt is the name you keep hearing. However, it's the Lions' Aiden Hutchinson who's leading the league in both sacks (6.5) and QB hits (11). The Seahawks' Smith was under pressure last week against Miami more than 43% of the time. That's more than 50% higher than the league average. Seattle actually ranks #1 in the league with a 44% pressure rate on the year, but we must remember that their defensive numbers are skewed.

The Lions can match a lot of the Seahawks’ defensive stats and have done so against much better competition, primarily without using the blitz.

Seahawks at Lions Betting Predictions

If the Seattle Seahawks have an advantage in this game, it’s at the wide receiver position. D.K. Metcalf has more help than his counterpart, Amon-Ra St. Brown. That’s about it, though. We have said a lot, but I want to finish with simplicity.

Winning in the NFL is about being able to run the ball and stop the run. The Lions may have the best run-blocking offensive line, the best RB1 and RB2 in football, and a coach who isn't afraid to bowl teams over. The Seattle defense, after stuffing their faces with three cupcakes, ranks in the middle of the league against the run. That's not good.

On the other sideline, the Seattle run game is at the bottom of the league, with the team averaging less than four yards per carry. Moving the ball on the ground against Detroit will likely prove difficult, as they are a top-five run-stopping defense.

Detroit takes an early lead and, with the help of Hutchinson, holds off Smith in the second half, just like the team did against Murray last week.

Pick: Detroit Lions (-3.5)

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