Monday Night Football Picks: Miami Dolphins at LA Rams

by Mike Allen - 11/7/2024

We wrap up Week 10 in Los Angeles this Monday night for a fun one. Fireworks are expected, as both highly powered offenses have their skill position players back. It’s hard not to just blindly bet the over in this spot.

Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was making a pretty solid case for himself to win the MVP and watched the offense struggle mightily in his absence. That is until he returned, and the team lost another two games. They were both against division leaders, however, and decided by 1 and 3 points, respectively.

This will also be the third game since the LA Rams got their star power back on offense. Both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp are healthy and performing at a high level. The Rams won those two games, but they weren’t easy, especially their overtime win in Seattle.

What an interesting spot for both teams this is. The Dolphins are all but eliminated from playoff contention, sitting at 2-6 with less than a 5% chance to make the postseason. They have yet to pack it in from an effort perspective, though, and the quotes coming out of the locker room are positive.

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Miami Dolphins (+1) at LA Rams (-1)

We've surprisingly seen a lot of early movement with the line. The LA Rams opened as 3-point favorites, and we're already down to just (-1).

Moneyline Odds

Miami Dolphins: -105

LA Rams: -115

The choice here is clear. Either take the Rams on the moneyline or the Dolphins with the point.

Point Total: 50

The point total opened at 50, and I am very surprised we haven't seen it climb at least a point, especially with the movement towards the Dolphins. Defenses from both teams had to step up in the absence of their stars on offense. Will that continue to be the story on Monday Night Football, though? You know both offensive coaches want to show out.

We are still south of the key number of 51, which is the 4th most likely point total of an NFL. What worries me is the rush defenses for both teams have been outstanding over the past three games, especially the Rams, who are 2nd in the NFL behind the Eagles over that span.

Miami Dolphins at LA Rams Betting Analysis

You can make the case that Tagovailoa looked great last week in his all-important second game back from concussion protocol. That first game is what it is. If you aren’t sharp by the second game, then maybe something is wrong.

He looks like he's getting his chemistry back with Tyreek Hill, and don't let Jaylen Waddle's -4 receiving yards fool you. He still caught a touchdown.

It’s hard to say that the Miami offense doesn’t roll this week. Geno Smith, without All-Pro wide receiver D.K. Metcalf, threw for over 360 yards and three touchdowns against that Rams secondary.

On the offensive side, LA struggled mightily to run the ball. They gave Kyren Williams the ball 22 times, but he still fell short of 70 yards on the ground. Miami has allowed just 4.0 yards a carry over their last three games. I don't think Sean McVay will make the same mistake on Monday night with a gameplan of overcommitting to the run, and the same goes for Mike McDaniel. You know he wants to throw the ball.

Something to consider for the potential success of the Dolphins' passing game is the seven sacks given up by the Seahawks last week to LA. Pair that with two consecutive sack-less games for Rams' QB Matt Stafford, and we have completions down the field.

Miami Dolphins at LA Rams Betting Pick

Even if the defenses step up for a big part of this game, both teams will be throwing the ball a lot. Not because it’s their strength, but also because it’s the weakness of each defense.

Over 50 Points: -110

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Monday Night Football Picks: Miami Dolphins at LA Rams

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