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Monday Night Football Picks: Los Angeles Chargers at Arizona Cardinals

by Mike Allen - 10/16/2024

Monday Night Football picks for Los Angeles Chargers vs Arizona Cardinals Justin Herbert

Wow, the public had their best week of betting all season in Week 6. A record 9 road favorites all won this week, and they all covered the spread! Be careful with your money this week, as the public usually loses bigger on the slate following a profitable Sunday.

I bring up the road favorites because we have another this week with the LA Chargers traveling to Arizona to play Kyler Murray and the Cardinals. Murray has been his usual self this season, showing flashes of greatness only to bring us all back down to earth with his lack of preparation. He gets away with it until he doesn’t.

The Cardinals' offense will need Murray to have done his homework, get Marvin Harrison Jr. back from his first NFL concussion, and continue to quietly be one of the most efficient running teams in the NFL.

I say “need,” because if the inconsistent Cards don’t show up at home with at least their B+ game, the LA Chargers could run them off the field a lot like they did just days ago in Denver. Don’t let the final score fool you. Jim Harbaugh had his boys up 23-0 in the 4th quarter.

LA has the best scoring defense in the league with a microscopic 13.2 points allowed per game. Their star quarterback Justin Herbert thrown for more than 200 yards for the first time under his new head coach. That’s a great sign. Herbert has been hampered by injuries the past couple of seasons, but we can’t forget how talented this guy truly is.

The Chargers look like they have found their footing as a complete football team.

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LA Chargers (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals (+2.5)

The betting line opened as a pick’em. However, a whopping 94% of the money came in on the Chargers, and here they are as almost field goal favorites on the road. There is simply too much steam powering this line for it to turn the other way. The only way there will be any buyback is if we get up to 3 or 3.5.

Moneyline Odds

Chargers: -145

Cardinals: +125

If we like a betting favorite with odds under a field goal, it’s a much safer play to take them on the moneyline. You do lose about 25% of your projected payout by taking the (-145) instead of the (-110) to cover, but I would rather lose part of a payout than my entire wager on a 1 to 2-point win. Around 8% of all NFL games end by a margin of 1 or 2 points.

Point Total: 44

The point total opened at 43.5, so there hasn’t been much movement. This isn’t because the money is split. We know that. Another 94% of the cash is on the over. Honestly, I would lean toward the under but I prefer a side.

Chargers at Cardinals Betting Analysis

We got lucky the sportsbooks opened this betting line as close as they did as a pick’em, or it may be north of 3 by now. That said, it’s still going up. Whether or not Harrison Jr. returns for Arizona may keep it under 3.5.

How have the Cardinals been able to win this year? What’s their Modus Operandi?

It hasn’t all been Murray making plays with his feet and improvisation skills. They’ve run the ball rather effectively at more than 5 yards per carry, but a big part of that has been Murray doing his thing.

Looking closer at Cardinals RB1 James Conner’s game log, he has been incredibly inconsistent this season. He had his best games against the Rams and Commanders, who are bottom-5 rush defenses. Conner mustered only 17 against Detroit and 24 last week to the Pack.

I guess you could say he is consistently inconsistent. He bullies bad defenses, has decent games against decent defenses, and struggles against elite run-stopping teams.

The Chargers, of course, fit the mold of the latter. This team is only improving by the week. Harbaugh is getting his feel back for the league, while Herbert returns to form.

Chargers at Cardinals Betting Pick

Last week in Denver, LA showed why nobody will want to play them in December and January. Of the top ten defenses in the league, only the Kansas City Chiefs have a better quarterback. J.K. Dobbins rushed for nearly 100 yards against the Broncos on Sunday. It wasn’t 130+ like he’s done twice this season, but doing it in Denver was impressive. He looked great, and I expect Harbaugh to feed the beast as much as needed.

Arizona’s chances to make the playoffs could go from 22% where they are now to probably below 10% with a loss. So, I understand they will likely be prepared and I understand that’s half the battle for a team who doesn’t always do that. However, the Chargers are a notch or two better as a Week 7 team. Of all the big wins by favorites in Week 6, the Chargers victory in Denver may have been the most impressive.

I feel confident this team covers the spread, but let’s stay safe and take them on the moneyline at (-145) to get the W in Arizona.

Pick: Chargers Moneyline (-145)

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