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Monday Night Football Picks: Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys

by Mike Allen - 11/13/2024

Monday Night Football picks for Houston Texans vs Dallas Cowboys Cooper Rush

If you’re ever looking for a buy-low spot on the Dallas Cowboys, now is the time. Growing up in Virginia, I happily became a Cowboy hater and have been for life. Things have gotten so bad down in Big D that I’m starting to feel bad for these guys.

The man that built “America’s Team” now seems more than happy to let it burn. Owner Jerry Jones berated his team through the media after the game. I’ll spare you the expletives. However, essentially he said everybody knows where the sun is and that each team has to deal with the brightness at AT&T Stadium. He’s not wrong and I get it. Everyone is frustrated, but JJ’s filter is long gone at this point.

Star edge rusher Micah Parsons had some interesting things to say about his head coach, Mike McCarthy, after the game. When asked will McCarthy be coaching the Cowboys next season, he said it was “Above his pay grade”. That’s fine, but then he continued on to say he feels bad for guys like right guard Zack Martin, who’re on their last year, and that they worked harder than McCarthy ever did.

Shots have been fired and apologies made. However, I don’t see things getting better in Dallas before they get much worse.

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Houston Texans (-7.5) at Dallas Cowboys (+7.5)

Hey, things are ugly in Dallas, and we have to be real about it. They could fire their head coach before the end of the season. I have a name in mind to replace him next season, though. I’ll give you a hint. It rhymes with Leon Flanders.

This betting line opened up at just 5.5 and was immediately steamed past a touchdown to where we are now. There might be some sharp money on Dallas here. however, because the number is so big, but I’m not scared.

Moneyline Odds

Houston Texans: -380

Dallas Cowboys: +300

I would 100% put the Texans into your Week 11 basic strategy teaser, but the moneyline odds are unplayable.

Point Total: 42

I didn’t give enough credit to this Texans defense at the start of the year. Through the injuries at wide receiver, though, this unit has proven to be the strength of the team. While no one is currently calling for the head of new Dallas QB Cooper Rush, trends tell us his performance in his second start will be worse than the first. If the Texans can establish the run with Joe Mixon, I could certainly see this game going under the total with a final of 31-10, but if Dallas goes with Trey Lance, maybe they catch some fire.

Whether it’s Lance or Rush or a little bit of both, I see turnovers in their future. The Texans are getting Will Anderson back on a defense that picked off statistically the most accurate quarterback in the league, Jared Goff, 5 times. Pick six’s nor scoop-n-scores are good for unders.

Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys Betting Analysis

The big news for the Houston Texans is the return of their WR1, Nico Collins. The 6’4” 222-pound former Michigan Wolverine can do it all. He’s a deep threat and a possession receiver as well. Collins is as important to this offense as A.J. Brown is to the Eagles.

One could argue that maybe the Texans are coming into this game a little banged up after their loss to the Lions and even more so bring into questions their motivation to blow out the Cowboys. That’s when I would fire back with, yes, they’re two games up in the division with the tiebreaker, however, there are five AFC teams currently with a better record. That’s not good news for the Texans, who are 4-1 at home and 2-3 on the road.

Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys Betting Pick

There has to be some pride on the line for some of these Cowboys. I know the defensive line is playing their hearts out, but I’m not sure about everyone else. Pressuring the quarterback is the key for Dallas this week, as the Cowboys rate out as one of the best units in the NFL in that category.

For the pass rush to be most effective, you need to have the lead, and I just don’t see it in this game.

The rush defense of Dallas will be the x-factor here, because if Joe Mixon gets rolling, the Dallas edge rushers will have to be honest and from there, it’s a blowout.

Houston has allowed more points than they’ve scored this year, though. So, how do you back them at more than a touchdown? Take the Texans to cover the 1st half spread at just (-3.5).

Houston on the year is outscoring their opponents in the 1st half, 14.2 to 8.5. These numbers are better over their previous three games. Dallas, conversely, has been outscored 14.7 to 10.4 on the year and 8.7 to 11.3 over their past three. We are talking top-3 1st half team vs a bottom-3 1st half team. Add in that Dallas has been atrocious at home going back to last season, and even though Houston isn’t a road team, they will be in a dome without the sun.

Pick: Houston 1st half (-3.5)

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