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Monday Night Football Picks: Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers

by Mike Allen - 12/23/2024

Monday Night Football picks for Detroit Lions vs San Francisco 49ers Brock Purdy

On the fifth day of the 17th Week, the NFL gave the people the Detroit Lions and the San Francisco 49ers. The league had more of an NFC Championship level of a matchup in mind with this one. However, with one defense getting healthy and the other reeling from injuries, we may have a closer contest than you think.

Despite the season from Hades for the Niners, they haven't quit, and at least they have a chance to show their heart. That's what I would tell them if I were the coach. It's no secret this team is loaded with talent. At their best, they're arguably the best team of the past two seasons. They haven't been at their best enough, but they've proven that to themselves. Now, it's time to prove your heart.

It was a hard-fought game in Miami on Sunday, but a late 50-yard dash by De’Von Achane sealed the Niners’ ninth loss of the season.

The Detroit Lions are hampered by injuries themselves, more so than any other time this season. However, that didn't stop them from doubling up the Bears in Chicago, 34-17, on Sunday. The defense recovered a couple of early fumbles, giving the offense enough time to build a lead. From there, Detroit was already going downhill, and their success snowballed.

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Detroit Lions (-3.5) at San Francisco 49ers (+3.5)

The betting odds opened at (-2.5) for Detroit, which didn't last long, as you might imagine. A total of 88% of the sharp and public money played Detroit at less than a field goal. The sportsbooks had to know that would happen.

It seems too good to be true. The Niner defense is healthier than they've been playing with ferocity all year. They've been better against the run lately and a top-five pass defense all year.

Moneyline Odds

Lions: -190

49ers: +160

The moneyline is a decent option if we don’t want to pay the price of more than a field goal on the road, and the opening point spread screams of a fishy trap, a net if you will.

Point Total: 51.5

Believe it or not, the Detroit Lions are just 8-7 to the over this season. We have a high total this week, as you can see. The odds haven’t moved since they opened. I’m leaning towards the under, as 51 is a very key number in NFL point totals. There’s about a 4% chance of any game landing on 51.

Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers Betting Analysis

That’s not the only reason, though. Take away the win over the Chicago Bears a couple of weeks ago, and the Niners are averaging just 12 points/game over their previous five.

The Lions' defense is porous, with the Niner defense hot right now. You can see a path to victory for San Francisco, but they'll have to do better running the ball than last week. Brock Purdy was their leading rusher against the Miami Dolphins, a middling run defense in 2024.

This is a lookahead spot for Detroit as they're tied with the Vikings for first place in the NFC North and the best record in the conference. Detroit also holds the tiebreaker even if Minnesota beats them next week.

The Lions will have a chance to clinch the #1 seed on Monday night if the Vikings lose to the Packers on Sunday afternoon. That may change the complexion of this one slightly, but Detroit proved in Chicago that their foot is in the same place it's been all season, squarely on the gas pedal.

Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers Betting Pick

Detroit shut down the run against the Bears. They know their best bet to defeat the Niners is to do exactly what the Dolphins did. While I would love to bet the under in this game, I can’t bring myself to do that with a Lions game, especially when their defense is more injured than the offense.

This game reminds me a lot of the Lions vs Texans game. That was a Sunday night. We took Detroit on the lookahead at (-2.5) and gambled a bit on the Texans’ moneyline as it got juicier. The point spread opened at (-3) and eventually closed at (-4), as this game will likely do.

The matchup is similar as well, and Houston didn’t make it so competitive with a strong running game, either, with Mixon only going for 46 yards on the ground.

That one wrapped up 26-23 for Detroit. Take them on the moneyline to avoid the hook.

Pick: Detroit Moneyline (-190)

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