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Monday Night Football Picks: Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos

by Mike Allen - 11/28/2024

Monday Night Football picks Cleveland Browns Denver Broncos Myles Garrett

How do the Cleveland Browns rebound after winning their AFC North Super Bowl in a classic Cleveland snowstorm last week? The good news for the Browns is that was a Thursday game, so they have the mini-bye ahead of this matchup. The bad news is they have to play the Steelers again next week! How do you not look ahead just a little bit?

Cleveland is out of the playoffs with nothing to play for other than getting up for their divisional rematches with the Steelers and the Ravens, teams they’ve already upset this year.

That brings me to their emotional leader on and off the field, quarterback Jameis Winston. Even though he threw a late pick against Pittsburgh, Winston didn’t allow his offense to quit on themselves. They had another opportunity and made the best of it.

Winston has had a hard time in his career, particularly over the past few years, putting together two consecutive strong outings. He's just 1-6 against the spread coming off of a win in the past four seasons. You can already tell I'm leaning towards the Broncos here, but it's mighty hard not to. They are second in the NFL with a record of 9-3, and they've covered in all three games they were home favorites.

Sean Payton is a dark horse to win his second NFL Coach of the Year Award, and Bo Nix is red hot on the tail of Jayden Daniels with odds of just (+120) now to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year. Who saw this coming?

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Cleveland Browns (+5.5) at Denver Broncos (-5.5)

The lookahead line for this game was actually up at a touchdown (-7) before the Browns' big win on Thursday Night Football. I can see some people thinking the number was too big, but it's possible the sharps bet this down early just to get it where they want for a hammering. I see it happen in MMA betting all the time. If the books overreact to their small but significant enough push, that's when they get hit hard with the truly smart money.

Maybe that happened here, but you also have sharp guys who just play the number. They thought 7 and 6 were too big, and here we are.

Moneyline Odds

Browns: +200

Broncos: -250

Point Total: 41.5

These are two defensive teams. The Browns’ defense wore down physically, mentally, and competitively this year dealing with such a mess at the quarterback position.

That is behind them now, and they looked great against the Steelers, Myles Garrett in particular.

Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos Betting Analysis

Cleveland is just getting up for the big divisional games. After they shocked the Ravens but were still beaten up, they were smacked on the road in New Orleans. This was also a look-ahead game. Now, they're in a letdown spot, albeit on a mini-bye, which is also a look-ahead spot that's also a sandwich spot, a Steeler sandwich.

The Broncos are in a much better spot, and their defense is one of the best in the NFL. They rank in the top 3 in most advanced and basic metrics on defense, including 1st in yards/play allowed and 1st in the league in sacks with 44.

It's tough to compare the Broncos' stats with those of the Browns, because Cleveland is a much better team with Winston under center. However, some of the defensive stats for the Browns are rough -- 22nd in yards/pass and 29th in yards/run.

Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos Betting Pick

Let’s not overthink this one. The Browns have to get over the Steelers win to focus on Denver while they’re preparing to play their rival for the second time in less than three weeks. The Broncos are currently 67% to make the playoffs. There is a world where the Cleveland defense takes advantage of a rookie quarterback, but Nix improves by the week and is almost a 25-year-old man.

Pick: Broncos (-5.5)

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