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Monday Night Football Picks: Cincinnati Bengals at Dallas Cowboys

by Mike Allen - 12/5/2024

Monday Night Football picks for Cincinnati Bengals vs Dallas Cowboys Rico Dowdle

We wrap up Week 14 of the NFL season this Monday night in Big D when Cooper Rush and the Cowboys host the people's MVP, Joe Burrow, and the Cincinnati Bengals. It's been a disappointing, frustrating year for both teams, and their respective chances at postseason play are minuscule and diminishing rapidly.

Even with their faults, these two are proud franchises, and neither has begun to pack it in for the year. The problem in Dallas is they paid a couple of guys too much money and didn't plug up an aging offensive line. Then they lose their quarterback, WR1 drops a touchdown in the sun, and the owner shifts any blame about anything to his players.

I've been surprised, though, at how hard they've played, because, normally, in life, if you aren't prepared for a traumatic event, your reaction and how you deal with it aren't ideal. Micah Parsons has 3.5 sacks over their previous two games, and there's a chance we see the man in the middle, Dexter Lawrence, back on the field.

I don't know what to say if you haven't figured out the Bengals yet this year. They're more or less the same team every time they take the field. Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase are playing the best football of their careers. The running game has struggled, but it hasn't mattered. The defense is awful. Just imagine if the Bengals were just okay on that side of the ball. They would be a Super Bowl contender. It's a shame for Bengals fans. Thankfully, there just aren't many of them to suffer. I've met only one.

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Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) at Dallas Cowboys (+5.5)

This betting line opened at (-6.5), and we've seen some Cowboy money come in. Most of that was before we crossed the key number of 6, though.

Moneyline Odds

Bengals: -245

Cowboys: +195

A bet on the Cowboys straight up would net you more than double what a play on them with the 5.5 points would. That's good value. However, think about it. At the end of the game, Burrow has been able to scorch everyone, minus the Eagles, this year. Dallas does have a potent pass rush, and the Bengals should protect Burrow more.

Point Spread: 49.5

With Rush moving the ball well off Dowdle's early-down chunks, you have to imagine the Cowboys will be able to score some touchdowns on Cincinnati in this spot. Believe it or not, the point total for this game opened at 44.5. We tipped the over 45 as a lookahead line best bet over a week ago. The Bengals have exceeded the total in five straight games and are 9-3 for the season. Dallas is 8-4 to the over, with three consecutive games finishing above the point total.

There are a million reasons to bet the over in this game, but we may have missed the boat last week.

Bengals at Cowboys Betting Analysis

If Dallas is smart on offense and double-teams Bengals' edge rusher Trey Hendrickson, Rush won't be forced to live up to his name until late in the game. He'll likely have more time, because the Bengals have had nearly zero production from anyone else on the defensive line.

I would say that Dallas needs to force turnovers to give themselves a chance to win, but the Bengals had three last week against one of the best defenses in the league and still put up 38.

We've seen Rush be successful the past couple of weeks, but we haven't seen him have to play from behind or win a shootout with Burrow.

Bengals at Cowboys Betting Pick

I'm leaning towards a play on Cincinnati here, but I don't love it. Let's target a player prop instead on the aforementioned Rush. The Cowboys quarterback has nearly even betting odds of (-115) to surpass 228 passing yards.

Points will likely be easier to come by for the Bengals, and they'll keep at least a slight lead throughout. They may break it open late, and maybe not, but they aren't a slow-moving offense. Rush will probably have a season-high on pass attempts this week because he'll be playing catch-up the whole game.

His game log this season for passing yardage is admittedly all over the place, but he did throw for over 350 yards against the Texans in a game where his team scored only 10 points. Even though he had a lot of attempts in his last game, his team was winning, and they didn't need to throw the ball down the field. He had 247 against the Commanders in a hotly contested game.

Dowdle provides enough value early to let Rush get to at least 100 before halftime. From there, Burrow does his thing, and the Cincy defense graciously accepts the call to switch to prevent.

Pick: Cooper Rush Over 228 Passing Yards

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