Docs Website

53 Years Strong! A Trusted Leader In Sports Picks, Best Bets and Predictions Since 1971.

Main Menu

Monday Night Football Picks: Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings

by Mike Allen - 12/12/2024

Monday Night Football picks Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings Caleb Williams

NFC North Division rivals the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings meet for the second time this season on Monday night. It will be the "early" game at 8:00 PM Eastern, with the Atlanta Falcons Raiders game kicking off at 8:30.

I chose this game for a couple of reasons. One side I like quite a bit, and the late game pits a 4-game losing streak with an 8-game. No thanks.

The Bears have been the whipping boy of good teams, that is, outside their division. Chicago has played the best division in football as well, if not better than most of the league. The Bears' four wins this season came against the Titans, Panthers, Jaguars, and last but not least, the Rams, sin Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp.

Against the Pack, Vikings, and Lions, though, the combined point differential was just 7. After those three games, they laid an ostrich egg against the 49ers last week, perhaps their worst performance of the season.

This is a lesson, and it applies to the Steelers vs. Philly game this week. After three consecutive division games, Chicago looked terrible, and Pittsburgh is coming off of 4 straight.

Back to the Bears. Are those three close losses this year enough to be a trend? Is this team only getting up for division games?

As for the Minnesota Vikings, well, they're undefeated outside of a 5-day span. After their loss to the Lions, Minnesota traveled to LA to play the Rams the following Thursday. On Sunday, this team put up a season-high 42 points. Sam Darnold threw for 347 with five touchdowns and zero picks.

This obviously isn't a buy-low spot for Minnesota, but you can argue they're the most consistent team in the league this year alongside rival Detroit.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

Chicago Bears (+6.5) at Minnesota Vikings (-6.5)

The betting odds opened up at (-5.5) for Minnesota, and they've since gotten a ton of money from both the public and the sharps, each upwards of 90%. There are some 7s out there as well. The market is split at the moment, majorly because the Bears took Minnesota to overtime less than three weeks ago, albeit aided by an onside kick. Chicago had their shot in OT but went four-and-out, losing 6 yards. Minnesota then drove it directly down the field for the win. The Vikings were up 24-10 halfway through the 4th quarter and let their foot off the gas early. You have to be careful with Caleb Williams. He isn't on as much as Jayden Daniels or Bo Nix. However, his best is better than their best.

Moneyline Betting Odds

Minnesota Vikings: -310

Chicago Bears: +250

Point Total: 43.5

The point total opened at 42, and it shouldn’t be a surprise it’s now up to 43.5. Williams had the best game of the season statistically against Minnesota.

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings Betting Analysis

The #1 priority of the Chicago Bears this week must be protecting Williams. He can scramble if the Bears fall behind, but his internal clock is that of a rookie. Chicago is dead last in the league for hurries, allowing on nearly 12% of dropbacks, with 33 sacks allowed over their past six games.

I'm sure Minnesota Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores has some fresh blitz schemes to get to Williams. It's actually the Bears, though, that blitz more than anyone. Minnesota started the year blitzing much more, but Flores has backed off. I love the adjustment mid-season from the soon-to-be head coach, and the results speak for themselves.

The Bears are the #1 blitzing team in the league out of necessity. They’re playing desperate, struggling to stop opposing offenses from moving the ball, and they’re bringing it.

While Darnold doesn't mind standing in the pocket long enough to deliver an on-time ball, he is a statue back there. He gets through his reads faster than anyone, though. You guys know the sprinkler dance, right? That's him, just quick little shifts until he finds his man.

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings Betting Pick

I love the spot for Minnesota here. The first time around, Chicago doubled Justin Jefferson the entire day. It resulted in 9 targets each for T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison, who eviscerated the defense for a combined 276 yards on 15 receptions.

I don’t know how the Bears slow these boys down. The defense ranks 28th in the NFL in run-stopping win rate, while the Vikings are top five in pass block, pass rush, and run-stopping win rates.

We've already seen the backdoor cover and near-miraculous win in this matchup. Let's bet on how 80% of the game went, not the final wacky 20%.

Pick: Minnesota Vikings (-6.5)

Get NFL picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bet premium picks by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.

 

Most Recent Monday Night Football Picks

One E-mail A Week Is All You Need!
Our weekly newsletter is loaded with exclusive free picks,insight and advice from our expert handicappers