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Monday Night Football Picks: Buffalo Bills at New York Jets

by Mike Allen - 10/10/2024

Monday Night Football picks Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets Aaron Rodgers

Congratulations if you were on the now former New York Jets head coach Robert Salah to be the first NFL head coach fired in 2024. I wrote an article about two months ago and omitted Salah. He was the second-highest favorite on the board, though, with Dennis Allen at (+500) and his odds an even 5-1.

It was almost impossible not to blame the quarterback play last year, because we used our eyes and ears and thought that the lack of leadership had something to do with the QB position.

After using my eyes again this year, it was apparent something was off with the culture of the team, and it was surprising. Not as dramatic, however, as much as his abrupt firing. The Jets have an opportunity to take first place in the AFC East with a win in Buffalo this week. Aaron Rodgers has looked good, but I think it boils down to why it's taking so long to build consistent chemistry.

Replacing Salah is a hire from within. Defensive coordinator and play caller Jeff Ulbrich. Salah wasn’t calling plays on offense or defense. We may see a rejuvenated Jets team this week. It was just over a year ago when the Raiders’ 30-6 shellacking of the Giants in Vegas just days after they fired Josh McDaniels.

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Buffalo Bills (-2.5) at New York Jets (+2.5)

The final of many home underdogs to take the field in Week 6, the New York Jets have the most to gain of any NFL team. Your head coach is the first to be fired. Not a week later, you could be in sole position of first place in what was projected to be one of the toughest divisions in football.

This lookahead line for this game was 1.5, and looking at each team's performance last week, I don't see how either contest would move the line that much. It was from the Salah firing, and if anything, I would have given half of a point the other way.  

Point Total: 41

The total opened up at 43.5. We have an over team and an under team, so maybe we return to the total if we can't pick a side.

Moneyline Odds

Buffalo Bills: -140

New York Jets: +120

If you like the Bills, just hold your nose and swallow the juice. The number isn't that bad. However, it should make you think twice.

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets Betting Analysis

If the shocking firing of Salah wasn’t weird enough, we went from talking about Josh Allen as a potential MVP candidate to watching him throw 9/30 for just 130 yards, albeit against a top-three defense against the pass.

It’s not going to get any easier this week for Allen. New York has the #1 rated pass defense in the league, and over the past three games, they’ve allowed opponents…get this, just 3.5 yards per pass.

The Jets may have lost to Minnesota in England, but the defense handed Sam Darnold, by far, his worst performance of the year. Everything was a season-low for Darnold. The blueprint is there for Buffalo after what Houston did. The Jets are actually a very similar team to the Texans. They are a pass-heavy offense that needs more production out of their run game. Their defensive strengths align. And while New York has allowed just 3.8 yards per carry over their previous three games, the Texans have allowed 5.3. This doesn't bode well for the Bills, who have the worst run defense in the NFL, giving up nearly 6 yards a carry over their last three games.

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets Betting Pick

The angle here for Buffalo is the Jets are a pass-first defense. That plays into their defense’s strength, which is 6th in the league in opponents’ yards per pass attempt. The x-factor will be the Jets’ rushing attack. Can they establish it against the worst run defense in the league?

New York hasn't been able to get much going on the ground all year, but they have played the #2, #7, #8, and #10 rush defenses in the league, plus the Niners. The running backs are due to break out.

We have home division underdogs in this spot, the better defense, the better quarterback, who have everything to win with far less to lose as this is their first game with a new head coach.

Pick: Jets (+2.5)

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