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Monday Night Football Picks: Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers

by Mike Allen - 11/21/2024

Monday Night Football picks Baltimore Ravens vs Los Angeles Chargers Derrick Henry

We didn’t know for sure there would be a head coaching rematch of the Harbaugh brothers in the NFL after Super Bowl XLVII. However, once the 2024 regular season schedule was released, fans rejoiced.

We get to see it in primetime on Cyber Monday Night. Hopefully, you didn't spend all your spare change on the new iPhone 16, because you have to bet this game. It's too interesting to ignore.

Believe it or not, it's younger brother Jim who comes into this matchup with a slightly better record of 7-3 than John's 7-4 Ravens.

Looking at the two, I definitely would have guessed John was younger by at least five years. It’s possible he could be more healthy and vain, but it’s the respective demeanors of the brothers that fascinate me.

Baltimore Ravens head coach John Harbaugh is one of the few NFL head coaches who almost has a resting smile face. When I look at Jim, though, I see stress. The Super Bowl matchup came down to a field goal, so it isn't like one is that much better than the other.

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Jim has already exceeded expectations in LA, and most importantly, he is doing what he does best, and that's mentoring his quarterback.

Justin Herbert was on his way to being an elite quarterback in this league until his growth was stunted after his highly successful sophomore season. After throwing 62 interceptions over the first 42 contests of his young career, the Eugene, Oregon, native has just 1 INT in 10 games this year.

Listening to Jim talk about his young quarterback on the Pat McAfee Show was heartwarming, honestly. I know this is a football article, but he said Herbert is one of the best of all time, and the team needs to protect him. We all know he isn't the best ever. He has the talent, but we're light-years from that conversation.

Jim put himself out there further than most fathers ever would. The commentators aren't blowing smoke about this guy and the connection he builds with his QB.

Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) at LA Chargers (+2.5)

This line opened up at (-3) for the visiting Baltimore Ravens. That’s a lot of respect to give them, but as you know, they’ve earned it. Baltimore is coming off of a heartbreaking loss to the rival Steelers, and the last thing they want to do is make a trip to LA to play another physical defensive battle.

Actually, this team might be excited about it. I know NFL-leading rusher Derrick Henry is hungry for redemption after his fumble inside the 5-yard line just days ago. Lamar Jackson is ready to get one back as well. His last pass on Sunday was a flick at best.

With both of these teams now in second place, this game has even more playoff implications.

Moneyline Odds

Ravens: -150

Chargers: +130

If you like Baltimore at (-2.5), take the moneyline instead. If you like the Bolts, certainly take the (+3).

Point Total: 51

This total seems high to me. The Baltimore Ravens are #1 in the league at both running the ball and stopping the run. You would think their record would be better than 7-4, but their schedule has been very tough, especially compared to that of the Chargers.

If I were John Harbaugh, I want to slow this game down and lean on Henry and Jackson, who are both north of 6 yards per carry on the season.

The run defense for the Chargers ranks 23rd in the NFL, while the pass D is 6th in yards/attempt. I can see the Ravens taking more of a calculated approach to their offense in this one. It plays to their strengths and away from the defense’s.

Ravens at Chargers Betting Analysis

Had the Steelers not had that incredible takeaway interception near the sideline, or if Henry had not fumbled in front of the goalline, and definitely if Justin Tucker hadn't missed two field goals, Baltimore would have won that game.

The Chargers showed a lot of character, blowing a lead but still keeping it together emotionally for the win. They almost lost, though. If that happens and/or the Ravens win, this line would at least be 3.5, maybe even 4.

This is why I would rather sometimes just bet the game on the lookahead line instead. We don't have to deal with this recency bias, we can't help but have to some extent.

Ravens at Chargers Betting Pick

The Chargers' defense has been a bend-but-don't-break defense. And if you've done that through 10 games, you tend to get the stops when you need them. That's where this matchup gets even more interesting.

Baltimore’s offense is #3 in the league in 3rd down efficiency, while the LA defense ranks 2nd. The Ravens are #1 in the lead in red zone scoring %, but the Chargers again rank 2nd.

We'll see what happens in those situations, but it's hard to argue against Jackson and Henry against a bottom-10 run defense.

It isn't like LA can run the ball themselves, though. Herbert and the defense have carried a running game that also has them in the bottom 10 of the league. Compare that to 1st in the NFL in rush defense for the Ravens, and this makes LA one-dimensional.

Just don't get beat over the top like you have all year…okay Baltimore? A player prop on either Henry's yards or possibly an anytime touchdown on the Chargers' Ladd McConkey interested me until I saw the (-2.5) in multiple places for the Ravens.

An adjustment needs to be made, and it's the pacing of the game. The Ravens need to run the ball more. It's that simple. Feed the beast. With the matchup, I think they do just that, controlling the clock and holding on for the win.

Pick: Ravens Moneyilne (-150)

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