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MLB Props Picks: Expert Handicapping for Thursday 3/28/2024

by Matt Zitt - 3/28/2024

MLB props picks Kyle Tucker Houston Astros

America’s favorite pastime is back! Even though the official start of the MLB season occurred last week with a two-game series in South Korea between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres, Thursday has that Opening Day feel with all 30 squads in action. The beginning of the season can always be tricky with strict pitch counts, weather concerns, and timing for hitters, but we have a solid grasp on which teams will be the bottom-feeders and which players are hot and cold going from Spring Training to the regular season. It is time to start building that MLB bankroll on player props and Doc’s Sports will break down some of the best action on Opening Day below.

Doc’s Sports offers MLB expert picks for every game on our baseball predictions page.

Corey Seager, Texas Rangers, OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+115)

The Rangers will face Chicago southpaw Justin Steele on Opening Day, and plus money for two total bases feels like a steal (no pun intended). Steele did not have a great Spring Training, allowing seven runs over 11 innings of work. Last year, left-handed hitters had a .317 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) against him, which is higher than right-handed hitters against the Cubs flamethrower. Basically, left-handed hitters hit better against the lefty than right-handed hitters, which rarely happens in the sport. Seager finished 2023 with a .327 batting average, 33 home runs, 96 RBIs, while collecting 156 hits. At plus money, I will take a chance for Seager to eclipse this total with a multi-hit game or one swing of the bat.

Tyler Glasnow, Los Angeles Dodgers, UNDER 7.5 Strikeouts (+100)

Glasnow was the Dodgers Opening Day starter last week in South Korea and left the game trailing 2-1 after the fifth inning. He issued more walks with four than strikeouts with three and was held to a 77-pitch effort. That should serve as a reminder that most managers will have strict pitch counts this first month of the season. Glasnow has topped 100 innings pitched in a season only twice and is coming off a career-high 120 innings pitched in 2023. He will face the St. Louis Cardinals on Thursday, and last year they struck out at the seventh-lowest rate against right-handed pitching. Reaching eight strikeouts could prove difficult with pitch counts and even money has piqued my interest.

Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers, OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-110)

Despite playing on a mediocre Tigers squad, Skubal has been getting a ton of preseason buzz as a dark horse contender for the AL Cy Young. He dazzled last season in 80 innings, with a 11k/9 innings and 1.5BB/9 innings ratio. Playing the Chicago White Sox increases the chances that Skubal can eclipse the 6.5 strikeout line. Chicago is projected to finish at the bottom of the AL Central, and their numbers last season against the Tigers ace were not pretty. The current White Sox on the Opening Day roster combined to go 18-for-86 and struck out 25 times against Skubal. The Sox were also 11th in strikeout rate last season. Skubal should take care of business against a weak Chicago lineup.

Max Muncy, Los Angeles Dodgers, OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+120)

This Dodgers lineup is just filthy and unfair to opposing pitchers. It is picking your poison with Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, and even James Outman. Los Angeles will take Miles Mikolas on Opening Day, which is why I will target Muncy at plus money to reach two total bases. Mikolas gave up a .204 ISO and wOBA of .344 to 409 lefties in the 2023 season. He also struck out lefties at a meager 15.2% of the time and allowed more than 28% of line drive contact to lefties. Muncy hit an ISO of .272 with a wOBA of .373 against righties last year. Just like our Corey Seager selection, one swing of the bat can cash this plus money prop.

Kyle Tucker, Houston Astros, Hit a Home Run (+425)

Tucker is a rare lefty with solid numbers against left-handed pitching. At +435 odds, he is a great selection to hit an Opening Day homer. Tucker drilled 12 home runs off left-handed pitching last season, and weather will not play a factor as the game will be held in Houston. He also had a .267 ISO against lefties in 2023. The Astros will face Nestor Cortes, who allowed two home runs to lefties in just 12.1 innings of work last season before getting injured. Tucker has the power to take anyone deep. And with Alvarez behind him in the lineup, he should see a plethora of strikes, making him a solid option to go yard on Opening Day. 

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