MLB MVP and Rookie of the Year Updated Odds and Predictions

by Ryan Cobbett - 6/11/2024

Updated MLB MVP odds Aaron Judge New York Yankees

In this article we will take a deep dive into the current favorites for the MVP and Rookie of the Year awards in each league. As we enter the dog days of summer, now is a good time to identify hot starts turning into yearlong success, or who drops out with the heat. Later this week, we will look at the CY Young race as well as Manager of the Year, Reliever of the Year, and Comeback Player of the Year. With just under 100 games remaining on the season, let’s see who the odds-on favorite is to win each award, and who are potential candidates to usurp them by seasons end.

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MVP

Current Favorite: Aaron Judge -110

Aaron Judge has a significant lead in the AL MVP standings at this point of the season. He is hitting .305 with a 1.139 OPS, 5.0 WAR, and leads his team with 24 homeruns and 59 RBIs. He leads the MLB in OPS, WAR, homeruns, and SLG%. Judge ranks in the Top Three in runs scored, RBIs, and doubles. He is the best hitter on the best team, in the American League.

Following Judge is the 25 and under club of Gunnar Henderson (+480), Juan Soto (+490), and Bobby Witt Jr. (+550). Henderson is currently pacing 52 homeruns and 114 RBIs, while his Orioles are chasing the Yankees in the AL East standings. Soto is also on pace for a career year in what could be his lone season in the Bronx, as he trails only Judge in OPS with an elite 1.024 mark. To round out the Top Four, Bobby Witt Jr. is Mr. Do It All, as the young shortstop is producing at a near 30/30 level while leading the MLB in runs, while ranking second in triples and runs, and eighth in OPS. Of course, Judge has the best numbers and has a good lead, but the young stars are going to make this a much closer race by the end of the season.

My Pick- Aaron Judge -110

Dark Horse- Juan Soto +490

Current Favorite: Mookie Betts +145

After potentially being snubbed from the award last season, Mookie Betts is back in the fold again this time around. Betts ranks in the Top 10 in the National League in OPS, hits, triples, AVG, runs, and walks. His 3.6 WAR trails only Ketel Marte who has a 3.7 mark. The most impressive stat for Betts may be the fact he has struck out only 31 times in his 262 at bats this season. In a lineup full of stars, Betts still finds ways to produce at a high level.

The NL MVP race is much closer than the American League race. Betts is followed by his teammate Shohei Ohtani (+430) in a year with no pitching, Bryce Harper (+430), while William Contreras and Marcell Ozuna (both at +1600) round out the Top Five. With no pitching stats to catapult him into the top spot, Ohtani has still produced at a high level at the plate and is nearly pacing a 40/40 season and ranks in the Top Five in the NL in runs, hits, homeruns, and OPS. Harper has really gotten hot as of late and is now hitting .277 with 15 homeruns and 45 RBIs while his .920 OPS ranks fourth in the National League. Betts also deserves a nod for having the best glove on this list and being able to play not one, but three positions at a high level.

My Pick- Mookie Betts +110 (if he can get his power up)

Dark Horse- Shohei Ohtani +430

Rookie of the Year

Current Favorite: Luis Gil -135

The New York Yankees have dominated the awards boards so far, so it is no surprise to see Gil as the odds-on favorite to win the AL Rookie of the Year award. In what’s proven to be a healthy and now deep rotation for the Yankees, Gil leads the team with a 2.04 ERA across 13 starts and has an impressive 10.8 K/9 ration with a 0.93 WHIP. His 2.7 WAR is eighth best amongst pitchers while he has an impressive 8-1 record on the season.

Following Gil is the dominating young closer Mason Miller (+370), and outfielders Colton Cowser (+900) and Wilyer Abreu (+900). Miller transitioned from a starter to a closer this season, a move that has been the only positive for the Oakland Athletics. He has a 2.12 ERA across 29.2 innings with 55 strikeouts and is 12/13 in save opportunities. He has an elite K/9 ratio of 16.7. Cowser has flashed potential at the plate and has seven homeruns, but he will need to improve on his consistency if he wants to catch up to the pitchers on this list. As for Abreu, he has the potential to be superstar in the MLB as he is showcasing 30/30 potential already. I love Miller’s stuff and with him being a closer, I think by the end of the season he will catch up to Gil as Gil will have more exposure to getting hit.

My Pick- Mason Miller +370

Current Favorite: Shota Imanaga +135

Shota Imanaga came into the league and immediately made history with domination from the get-go. Imanaga ranks 5th in the MLB with a 1.96 ERA, and he is 6-1 with seven quality starts across 12 starts. He has walked just 11 batters so far and carries an impressive 1.03 WHIP. His 2.4 WAR ranks ninth in the MLB, just behind Gil’s 2.7 mark. He has been the only real consistency the Cubs have gotten from anyone this season.

As for the rest of the pack, pitchers Yoshinobu Yamamoto (+340) and Paul Skenes (+360) are closing in on Imanaga, while Joey Ortiz (+850) has found success with his new team. Yamamoto has brought his ERA down to 3.00 after a dreadful start to the season, and he is now 6-2 with seven quality starts this season. He has a 1.07 WHIP and a 10.4 K/9 ratio. As for Skenes, he is the newest on the scene and has a lot of hype around his name, but rightfully so. The young flamethrower has 38 strikeouts in just 27 innings of work, which is good for a 12.7 K/9 mark, and he has a 3-0 record with a 3.00 ERA in his first five starts. As for our only bat on this list, Ortiz is hitting .285 with five homeruns, 12 doubles, and a solid .843 OPS. His 1.8 WAR is the third most on the team, despite only 172 at-bats so far this season.

My Pick- Shota Imanaga +135

Dark Horse- Yoshinobu Yamamoto +340

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Start:	November 21, 2024 @ 7:30 PM
Expert:	Scott Spreitzer
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