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MLB End of Season Awards Odds Update with Predictions

by Ryan Cobbett - 6/20/2024

MLB end of season awards odds update Corbin Burnes Baltimore Orioles

Last week we discussed the MVP and Rookie of the Year, this week is the remaining stand out player awards. For part two of the MLB Award updates, we will see who is favored to win the Cy Young, Manager of the year, Comeback Player of the Year, and Reliever of the Year. The Cy Young race is seemingly the most exciting race to follow in the summer months with no clear favorite in either league. Let’s see what the numbers say and who might sneak into the top spot at seasons end.

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Cy Young

American League

As of now, the AL Cy Young is a two-horse race between aces Corbin Burnes and Tarik Skubal. Skubal at +240 has a slight edge over Burnes at +250. Skubal is 8-3 this season with a 2.50 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP across 90 innings of work. Burnes is 8-2 with a 2.14 ERA across 92.2 innings of work. The separation, though slight, can be attributed to Skubal’s 105 strikeouts, which is sixth most in the MLB and 16 more than Burnes, despite recording having 2.2 less innings. Burnes is tied for the MLB lead with 12 quality starts, two more than Skubal, but Skubal carries a 3.2 WAR, which is also good for sixth best in the MLB and 1 win better than Burnes’ mark. Garrett Crochet and Tanner Houck round out the top four, with both sitting at +1200. Despite the current numbers, I am going to go with experience and better run support.

My Pick: Corbin Burnes +250

Dark Horse- Garrett Crochet +1200 (if traded to playoff team)

National League

The NL race is much tighter than its AL counterpart. There are eight solid contenders for this award right now, with the top two coming from the same team. Ranger Suarez (+350) has a slight edge over teammate Zack Wheeler (+460), while Tyler Glasnow (+460), Shota Imanaga (+750), and Chris Sale (+1100) round out the top five. Logan Webb, Max Fried, and Reynaldo Lopez all sit at +1400 odds and deserve a mention on the list. Lopez (1.57), Suarez (1.75), and Imanaga (1.89) all have sub 2.00 ERAs while Webb (99.1), Glasnow (93), Suarez (92.1), and Wheeler (92) all have recorded over 90 innings of work. Suarez’s 3.4 WAR also leads the list, and it helps that he is 10-1. However, don’t sleep on Glasnow as he leads the MLB in strikeouts and carries a 0.91 WHIP despite his 3.00 ERA.

My Pick: Tyler Glasnow +460

Dark Horse- Max Fried +1400

Manager of the Year

American League

While there isn’t a ton to discuss other than the team’s overall improvement in performance, the Manager of the Year award is a safer bet than some of these awards. In the AL, there are just two true candidates, and both are in the AL Central. Stephen Vogt (CLE) is the favorite right now at +165, while Matt Quatraro (KC) follows at +190. The Guardians (45-26) hold a 5.5-game lead over the second-place Minnesota Twins, while the Royals are 41-34 and hold the final wild card spot in the AL. The Royals are also just 15 wins away from their win total last season, and it’s only June. I do think the Royals will fall out of the race, but Quatraro deserves some recognition.

My Pick: Stephen Vogt +165

National League

Again, just a two-horse race at the moment. Rob Thompson (PHI) is the heavy favorite at -110, while first year manager Pat Murphy (+145) is second on the list. The Phillies might be the most complete team in baseball and are primed to end the Braves NL East Champions streak thanks to injuries and a missing offense. Murphy has the Brewers atop a much-improved NL Central despite the baseball world expecting a regression in Milwaukee. However, there is a reason Thompson is favored. The Phillies own the second-best record in the MLB, the best in the NL and have three potential Cy Youngs in their rotation. Anything less than a World Series win would be a disappointment in Philadelphia.

My Pick: Rob Thompson -110

Comeback Player of the Year

American League

If he can stay healthy, Carlos Rodon has this award locked up. Through a healthy 85 innings, Rodon has a 3.28 ERA and is 9-3 on the season with a team leading 10 quality starts. Despite a terrible, injury plagued start to his time in the Bronx, Rodon has finally returned to form and has been dominant this season. At +180, he is the favorite and is followed by two more pitchers. Garrett Crochet, who was converted from reliever to starter is second on the list with +260 odds, and Jack Flaherty rounds out the top three at +340. Crochet leads the AL in strikeouts and is a dark horse Cy Young candidate, but Rodon’s return from injury gives him the edge. The first position player on the list is Royals first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino at +1200.

My Pick: Carlos Rodon +180

Dark Horse- Garrett Crochet +260

National League

This is the most lopsided race of all the awards so far, and deservedly so. Chris Sale was traded to the Braves this offseason and immediately extended despite his injury history. Alex Anthopoulos once again worked his magic, as Sale has been a much-needed ace in the rotation after Spencer Striders injury. He is second on the team with 81.2 innings and is 9-2 with a team leading 99 strikeouts and a rotation leading 0.94 WHIP. He also has a 2.98 ERA and has recorded eight quality starts this season. If Sale can stay healthy, this award is all but won for the veteran. At -420 Sale leads another trio of pitchers with Luis Severino (+700) and Hunter Greene (+2200) rounding out the top three. Catcher Joey Bart is the first position player on the list at +3800.

My Pick: Chris Sale -420

Dark Horse- Luis Severino +700

Reliever of the Year

American League

This is another awards race that sees one heavily favored. Emmanuel Clase anchors the best bullpen in baseball for the Cleveland Guardians and he is the odds-on favorite to win the AL Reliever of the Year at -280. Clase has converted 21 of his 24 save opportunities this season and has a 0.64 WHIP and 0.79 ERA across 34.1 innings this season. He has walked just three batters all season. Behind him is former starter Mason Miller, who has seen his career revived as a closer. Miller (+500) has converted 13 of his 15 save opportunities this season. In 33.2 innings of work, Miller has 59 strikeouts and has not allowed a homerun all season. His ERA has crept up to 2.14. However, if he gets traded to a winning team, he may get enough save chances to catch up to Clase. Clay Homes at +600 rounds out the list, though Clase and Miller are clearly the best two relievers in the AL.

My Pick: Emmanuel Clase -280

Dark Horse- Mason Miller +500

National League

The NL race is much closer and has more contenders. Ryan Helsley leads the pack at +155, with Robert Suarez (+300), Raisel Iglesias (+750), and Kyle Finnegan (+750) following. To no surprise, these four make up the top four in saves this season, with Helsley leading the way, converting 24 of his 25 tries this season. Helsley also leads the group in innings and strikeouts. Suarez has the best ERA on this list at 1.17 across 30.2 innings. Finnegan has converted 21 of his 23 save opportunities, while Iglesias has converted 19 of 21 tries. Despite having the worst ERA on the list, Iglesias might have the highest ceiling as he plays for the best team (of the four) and therefore should get more save chances. The other three teams on this list are below .500 and could fall out of the playoff picture. For now, Helsley has a commanding lead in saves, but he won’t for long.

My Pick: Raisel Iglesias +750

Dark Horse- Kyle Finnegan +750

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