Docs Website

53 Years Strong! A Trusted Leader In Sports Picks, Best Bets and Predictions Since 1971.

Main Menu

2024 March Madness Bracket Predictions: West Region

by Robert Ferringo - 3/20/2024

Tar Heels Basketball

Does defense really win championships?

We’re going to find out in the West Region of the 2024 NCAA Tournament.

The West boasts four of the highest scoring offenses in college basketball. Alabama (90.8), Arizona (89.5), North Carolina (81.6) and Baylor (81.6) all among the Top 25 in the country in points per game.

However, all four of them have struggled massively on defense throughout the season, leaving this bracket wide open for whichever team can either A) get hottest offensively or B) bear down and actually get some stops.

Or will one of the defensive-minded underdogs be able to break this bracket wide open? St. Mary’s and Colgate are Top 11 defensive teams in points per game while Dayton, Nevada, Michigan State and Grand Canyon are also in the Top 40. Mississippi State and Clemson are also known for locking opponents down and those teams could all serve as serious impediments for our high-flying favorites.

Here are Doc’s Sports March Madness bracket predictions for the West Region:

No. 1 Seed: North Carolina (+300 to win West Region)

Seven losses is an awful lot for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. However, there really aren’t many teams that I would take over the Tar Heels in a one-game championship situation. Alas, that’s now how The Big Dance works. So can UNC’s talented, experienced squad blitz its way to another national title? UNC may have the best starting five in the country. R.J. Davis is an All-American guard and Armando Bacot is superb at center. Transfers Harrison Ingram (Stanford) and Cormac Ryan (Notre Dame) fill in on the wing and shooting guard, respectively, perfectly, and freshman point guard Elliot Cadeau has a bright future. The Heels don’t have a bench, though. And if foul trouble or an off shooting night creep up (and they always do) this group has nowhere to turn.

North Carolina NCAA Tournament Predictions: If UNC can avoid Alabama they have a pretty clean run to the Elite Eight, where Baylor or Arizona should be in their way. Arizona is favored in this bracket for a reason, though, and beating the Wildcats in Los Angeles would be a tall task.

No. 2 Seed: Arizona Wildcats (+250 to win South Region)

Arizona should thank its lucky stars that Purdue lost to Fairleigh Dickinson last year. Because that all-time upset took most of the glare away from Arizona’s epic failure, losing as a No. 2 seed (again) to No. 15 seed Princeton in last season’s opening round. This year’s group isn’t any better than last year’s team. That doesn’t mean they will face the same fate, though. UNC transfer Caleb Love has become the team’s go-to guy and has never met a shot he didn’t like. The Wildcats will lean on centers Oumar Ballo and Motiejus Krivas for interior heft while Pelle Larsson and Keshad Johnson attack from the wings. Arizona is No. 3 in the country in scoring at 89.5 points per game. But defense is an issue (No. 222 in points allowed and No. 98 in field goal defense) that could trip this team up.

Arizona NCAA Tournament Predictions: The Wildcats have been perpetually overrated and overvalued in the NCAA Tournament. This year is likely no different. Arizona hasn’t been to the Final Four since 2001. I wouldn’t hold my breath on them making it back this season.

No. 3 Seed: Baylor Bears (+750)

Here we have another team that is all gas and no brakes on the offensive end of the court. The Bears are in the Top 25 in scoring offense and field goal shooting and are No. 7 in the nation in 3-point shooting, hitting 39.8 percent as a team. But like UNC and Arizona, defense is optional with this group (No. 293 in field goal defense). Transfer RayJ Dennis is the key guy for this group, averaging 13.5 points and 6.7 assists per game. Talented freshmen Ja’Kobe Walter and Yves Missi are a dangerous inside-out duo and with six of their top eight guys standing 6-foot-5 or taller this is one of the larger teams in the field.

Baylor NCAA Tournament Predictions: Baylor really is a tough team to peg. They haven’t lost to a team outside of the Top 25 of KenPom’s rankings since late January. They can shoot the lights out and have beaten good teams on neutral sites. In theory, they should be a legit Final Four contender. But that leaky defense is likely to do them in earlier than expected.

No. 4 Seed: Alabama Crimson Tide (+750)

Chuck and duck. Alabama takes 47 percent of its shots from 3-point range, among the most lopsided attacks in college basketball. It works for them, though, as the Crimson Tide are the nation’s highest-scoring team at 90.8 points per game. One of the issues for this group – besides a defense that allows 80.4 points per game, among the 10 worst in college hoops – is that its best players (Mark Sears, Aaron Estrada and Grant Nelson) are all mid-major transfers. So there is a ceiling for this group. And I can only have so much trust in a team that has allowed over 100 points in three of its last six games.

Alabama NCAA Tournament Predictions: Alabama should be a massive favorite to make it to the Sweet 16, with mid-majors Charleston, St. Mary’s and Grand Canyon in their opening weekend pod. From there, this group undoubtedly has the offensive firepower to bust this bracket wide open. I think the betting value on them is better than any of the top three seeds. However, the Tide has the same problem as everyone else in this group: they don’t get enough stops to be considered a legit title contender.

No. 5 Seed: St. Mary’s Gaels (+1000)

How good are the Gaels, really? That’s the real question with this group. They have nice wins over New Mexico, Colorado State and Gonzaga (twice). They also lost to every other Top 70 team that they faced this season while also taking L’s against Weber State and Missouri State – at home. Aidan Mahaney gets all the love for this group. But Augustas Marciulionis, the son of NBA Hall of Famer Sarunas Marciulionis, is the most versatile and valuable member of this high-executing backcourt. Unlike the rest of the teams in this bracket, St. Mary’s prefers to play at a glacial pace (No. 358) and can win with its defense. They’ve only lost once since Christmas, but have also played one of the weakest schedules in the field in that span.

St. Mary’s NCAA Tournament Predictions: This is St. Mary’s third straight NCAA Tournament as a No. 5 seed. They’ve won their first game each of the past two seasons before bowing out. I don’t see any reason why that would change this year.

No. 6 Seed: Clemson Tigers (+2000)

I was very high on this Clemson team entering the season. They rewarded me early with a blistering 11-1 start that included convincing wins over Boise State, Alabama, Pitt, South Carolina and TCU. From there the wheels came off a bit, though, and the Tigers went just 11-9 in a weak ACC before getting embarrassed by Boston College in the ACC Tournament. P.J. Hall is one of the best and most versatile big men in the game and a future pro. Guards Joe Girard and Chase Hunter are savvy veterans and Ian Schieffelin is an exceptional glue guy. They have size, skill and experience but things just haven’t clicked for this crew in months.

Clemson Tournament Predictions: The Tigers have lost three of their last four games and have just one win over a team in the tournament field dating back to mid-December. I thought this team had Sweet 16 potential all year – and I still do – but I can’t see them cobbling together anything past that modest ceiling.

Best first-round match up: No. 6 Clemson (+2.5) vs. No. 11 New Mexico

While Clemson is trying to get its act together New Mexico may just run them out of the gym. I absolutely hated to see this first round matchup because these were two teams I was ready to bet blindly in their opening game. New Mexico just rolled through a tough Mountain West Conference Tournament, winning four games in four days by an average of 14 points. Jaelen House and Jamal Mashburn are the sons of former NBA players and combine with Donovan Dent to average 45 points per game. Either one of these teams would be a handful for Baylor, potentially, in the next round.

Best potential second-round match up: No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 5 St. Mary’s

Here we would have the proverbial contrast in styles. Alabama plays at the 11th-fastest pace in the country while St. Mary’s runs at the fifth slowest. As I mentioned, Alabama’s best players all started their careers at the mid-major level. So St. Mary’s wouldn’t be facing the athleticism gap that they normally run up against in the tournament. Injuries to St. Mary’s frontcourt players Josh Jefferson and Harry Wessels leave the Gaels a bit shorthanded, though, and Alabama should be able to speed up the WCC champs in this one.

Upset Alert (first round): No. 3 Baylor (-13.5) vs. No. 14 Colgate

This is the fourth straight year that Colgate has been in The Big Dance. Three years ago, they lost by 17 to Arkansas, but were tied in that game with eight minutes to play. In 2022 they held a 52-50 lead over Wisconsin with around eight minutes to play before losing by seven. Last year they were never in it against Texas, trailing by 18 in the first half and getting run out of the gym in a 20-point defeat. The Raiders lost by 27 at Arizona this year and by 17 at Illinois but may have enough size and savvy to throw a scare into a Bears team that doesn’t have as much tournament experience as Colgate.

Upset Alert (second round): No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 8 Mississippi State

Mississippi State has all five starters back from a team that lost a heartbreaker to Pittsburgh in last year’s opening round. The Bulldogs are excellent defensively and have more than enough size to give the Tar Heels problems on the interior. Mississippi State has also proven that it can handle top tier competition, knocking off Tennessee twice this year as well as beating Auburn. This team has six seniors among its top eight players – along with stud freshman Josh Hubbard – and they won’t go down without a fight.

Dark Horse team: No. 4 Alabama

Alabama was a bust last year, entering The Big Dance as the tournament favorite only to get bounced in the Sweet 16. They aren’t exactly flying under the radar this season. But I think that they have the most favorable path of anyone not named “Arizona” to a spot in the Elite Eight. Alabama matches up great with North Carolina – a team that wants to run just as much as the Crimson Tide – and the boys from ‘Bama have a favorable opening round pod. If they break into the second weekend: watch out.

Team That Makes Me Nervous: No. 2 Arizona

The Wildcats have only made three tournaments since 2018, and have lost in the first round twice, including last year. What is the deal with this group? The Pac-12 was a very average conference in its swan song season and Arizona didn’t exactly dominate those mediocre foes. Sometimes this group looks like world beaters – like when they pounded Duke, Wisconsin, Alabama and Colorado by an average of 22.5 points per game early in the season. Other times they leave you scratching your head. This is a tough group to bet on or against, even with a home court edge out West.

2024 West Region Predictions: At the end of the day, to win postseason games you have to go get stops. That doesn’t mean that I think UNC, Arizona, Baylor and Arizona will all get chopped down by inferior, defensive-minded opponents. However, I think two of those top four seeds will get bounced in the opening weekend and a third will get cut down before the Elite Eight. Which one? Your guess is as good as mine. But whoever it is will have to get it done on both ends of the floor if they want to survive and advance.  

Robert Ferringo is a member of the Basketball Writers Association of America and a professional sports handicapper for Doc's Sports. He is considered one of the best college basketball handicappers in the country and has posted 12 of 15 winning seasons. He is looking for a monster March run and you can sign up for his college basketball picks and get more information here.

Most Recent March Madness Betting

One E-mail A Week Is All You Need!
Our weekly newsletter is loaded with exclusive free picks,insight and advice from our expert handicappers