2024 March Madness Bracket Predictions: Midwest Region

The East Region of the 2024 NCAA Tournament is the most difficult. With 11 conference tournament champions and the defending national champions it is absolutely stacked.

The South Region may be the most unpredictable. Boom-or-bust teams like Marquette, Kentucky, Wisconsin and Duke – all of whom could lose in the first round or make a run to the Elite Eight – make that region full of landmines.

And the West Region is the most imbalanced. Offensive juggernauts North Carolina, Arizona, Baylor and Alabama will try to sidestep defensive grinders like Mississippi State, Nevada, Clemson and St. Mary’s on their way to the Final Four.

Which leaves us with the Midwest Region.

And maybe the best way to describe this group in the bracket is…nondescript?

Sure, there will be some upsets and general insanity throughout the Midwest Region. It’s the NCAA Tournament, after all, and a bit of craziness is to be expected. But when you scan through this part of the bracket it really seems like the most likely to yield a fairly chalky, favorite-laden Elite Eight matchup before sending one of the top seeds to the Final Four.

Here are Doc’s Sports March Madness bracket predictions for the Midwest Region:

No. 1 Seed: Purdue Boilermakers (+175 to win Midwest Region)

The Boilermakers suffered the ignominy of becoming just the second No. 1 seed in NCAA Tournament history to lose to a No. 16 seed last season when they fell to Fairleigh Dickinson. Purdue is fighting for redemption now, with all five starters and seven of their top nine guys back from that embarrassing squad. It starts and ends with Zach Edey, the 7-foot-4 giant in the middle for the Boilermakers. He averages 24.2 points and 11.7 rebounds per game and is nearly unstoppable. Purdue surrounds him with superb shooters Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer and Mason Gillis. However, sometimes they go too reliant on their jump shooters and forget to just shove the ball inside to Edey. Transfer Lance Jones gives the team some extra athleticism and he could be a key to a deep run.

Purdue NCAA Tournament Predictions: The only other No. 1 to fall in its opening game, the 2017-18 Virginia Cavaliers, used the pain and shame of that failure as a springboard to a national championship the next season. Will Purdue do the same? Probably not! But I do think that this team is being a little overlooked right now and they should be good enough to compete for a spot in the Final Four. (Stop laughing.)

No. 2 Seed: Tennessee Volunteers (+325)

Rick Barnes is a massive loser in the postseason. I remind people every year: Barnes couldn’t get out of the opening weekend with Kevin Durant, D.J. Augustin and six players back from a Texas Final Four team. So, if this year’s Volunteers fall on their faces it should surprise exactly no one. Tennessee is an elite defensive team. However, the offense revolves around swingman Dalton Knecht, a Northern Colorado transfer that averages 21.4 per game. Point guard Zakai Zeigler offers a little punch and the rest of the offense mainly comes from players attacking the paint and offensive glass. The Vols won a rugged SEC this season and aren’t intimidated by anyone. They also haven’t won a game since March 6 and will need to find their form after getting embarrassed in the SEC Tournament.

Tennessee NCAA Tournament Predictions: The X-factor for the Volunteers are fifth-year seniors Santiago Vescovi and Josiah-Jordan James. Vescovi was a stud for the Vols the last two years but has seen his numbers crater this season and both players are averaging less PPG than either of their last two campaigns. They both look old and slow (even though they are just 22-23 years old!). If those two can regain their 2022 form the Vols could win this region.

No. 3 Seed: Creighton Bluejays (+450)

Over the last 12 months only three teams have beaten Connecticut. Creighton is one of them. The Bluejays survived The Great Big East Snubbing of 2024 and earned a seed that puts them in line to potential bring Greg McDermott his first Final Four berth. The trio of Baylor Scheierman, Trey Alexander and Ryan Kalkbrenner averages 53 points, 22 rebounds and 10 assists per game. They lead an elite offensive team that can sometimes get lax on defense. Creighton was battle-hardened in the Big East and has gotten better on the road. The Bluejays have a major issue with depth. Only six guys average more than 10 minutes per game and four players average 31 minutes or more. How much do these guys have left in the tank?

Creighton NCAA Tournament Predictions: Creighton suffered a heartbreaking loss in the Elite Eight last season. They would love nothing more than to make up for it this year and deliver McDermott that elusive Final Four trip. However, I don’t think teams can go deep in the tournament without at least a little bench support. On one hand, losing their Big East tournament opener last week could benefit a group of starters that could use the rest. On the other, their Thursday opening game will be just their third game in 19 days.

No. 4 Seed: Kansas Jayhawks (+800)

If the Kansas team were a farm animal they would be taken behind the barn and shot. Kansas’ season has been derailed by injuries to Kevin McCullar, the team’s best all-around player, and Hunter Dickinson, the team’s most important player. McCullar will not play in the tournament while Dickinson, just two weeks removed from separating his shoulder, will give it a go. Kansas had one of the shortest benches in college hoops before losing those two starters. And without them they lost by 30 and 20 points, respectively, in their last two games. Even before that the Jayhawks had been taking on water, posting their worst Big 12 record in decades and closing the season on a 4-6 straight-up slide.

Kansas NCAA Tournament Predictions: I know it is still Kansas, and even the ball boys are All-Americans. But this team has looked pretty bleak over the last three weeks. I don’t think Dickinson is close to 100 percent and without him this is not a tournament-caliber team. I would be stunned if they survived the opening weekend.

No. 5 Seed: Gonzaga Bulldogs (+1000)

Even Mark Few’s rebuilding seasons are pretty darn good. The Bulldogs lost a program great (Drew Timme) and six of their top eight players from last season’s 31-win squad. This year’s team still managed to win 25 games on the back of transfers Graham Ike and Ryan Nembhard. Anton Watson and Nolan Hickman bring versatility and a combined 28 points per game to the fold as well. Gonzaga, much like Kansas and Creighton, has little to no bench depth and that’s a major weakness. Still, they beat Kentucky in Lexington last month, won at St. Mary’s, and have only lost to two teams (St. Mary’s, Santa Clara) since New Year’s Day.

Gonzaga Tournament Predictions: This team isn’t even close to some of the powerhouses that Few has brought to The Dance. That doesn’t mean that they can’t put together a run, though. Few is an all-time great coach and this team isn’t burdened by the weight of expectations that crushed other Bulldogs clubs. They are playing with house money. If they embrace that they are capable of being a second weekend team.

No. 6 Seed: South Carolina Gamecocks (+2000)

Lamont Paris went 11-21 last season in his first year at Columbia. This year he turned the Gamecocks into a 26-win squad and brought them back to USC’s first tournament since their magical 2017 Final Four run. Like that 2017 squad, everything starts on defense for this Gamecocks group. They are No. 39 in points allowed and dig on that end of the court. Meechie Johnson and B.J. Mack give USC’s two tough, hard-nosed veteran scorers and if they can find a way to knock down shots they can be a tough out.

South Carolina Tournament Predictions: The Gamecocks have been one of the best bets in the country this season, going 22-9 against the spread. I think they used up all their magic beating those numbers during the regular season, though, and this team is just happy to be here.

Best first-round match up: No. 8 Utah State vs. No. 9 TCU

Points shouldn’t be a problem in this one. And it could end up being a case where the team with the ball last, wins. Both teams are in the Top 50 nationally in scoring, averaging 80 points per game. TCU has one of the most experienced teams in the nation. Utah State’s Great Osobor, Ian Martinez and Darius Brown won’t want to see their seasons/careers end. The result should be a free-for-all game that goes down to the wire.

Best potential second-round matchup: No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 7 Texas

Texas is a loser program that perpetually flops in the NCAA tournament so there is no guarantee that they will survive matchup with Colorado State on Thursday. If they do then this second-round game would feature two big name schools fighting for a spot in the Sweet 16. Really, it would be a battle of who could out-loser whom. Texas is just 6-7 in its last 13 games. However, only one of those losses has been against non-tournament teams. And stellar guards Max Abmas and Tyrese Hunter may be good enough to break open that vaunted Tennessee defense.

Upset Alert (first round): No. 4 Kansas vs. No. 13 Samford

As I mentioned, if Hunter Dickinson can’t go then we’ve seen how bad this Jayhawks team can be. Samford, a squad that’s won 29 of 33 games, certainly won’t feel bad for Kansas here. The Bulldogs play fast (No. 11 in pace), they shoot a ton of 3-pointers, and they make a lot of three’s (No. 6 in three-point accuracy). It’s tough to know where Kansas is at, mentally. And if Samford starts knocking down shots they could send the Jayhawks back to Lawrence.

Upset Alert (second round): No. 3 Creighton vs. No. 6 South Carolina/No. 11 Oregon

I love the Bluejays. But like I mentioned, they don’t play many guys and they haven’t played often in the last three weeks. Are they in form? Oregon has a load of momentum after winning the Pac-12 Tournament and head coach Dana Altman would love to spring an upset against his former school. South Carolina won’t fear the Bluejays; the Gamecocks have played against (and beaten) teams on that level in the SEC this season. If Creighton is going to survive to the Sweet 16 for a second straight year they will have to earn it.

Dark Horse team: No. 5 Gonzaga

Gonzaga has zero shot at winning a national title and probably has little shot of winning this region. They can still be a factor, though. With Kansas wounded, Gonzaga had one of the easiest opening pods in the entire tournament. Purdue is no lock to survive the opening weekend and that could crack things wide open for the Bulldogs to advance to the Elite Eight. Even if they have to tangle with Purdue, Gonzaga held a second-half lead against the Boilermakers when they met in Maui and I’m sure Few would love another crack at the Big Ten behemoth.

Team That Makes Me Nervous: No. 1 Purdue

No big surprise here. It’s the Boilermakers. For the past two years they have been among the national title favorites. Last year that ended in a hilarious and embarrassing first round loss. Will it happen again? Matt Painter has been an all-time loser in the NCAA tournament. His teams have been bounced by double-digit seeds in three straight years (a No. 16, a No. 15 and a No. 13). Throw in the comical missteps of the Big Ten in general (last national champion: 2000) and how much can we REALLY trust this group? Better big men than Edey never made the Final Four. However, Purdue really has a paved road to the Elite Eight, and from there they could play their way to the Final Four as one of the favorites once again.

2024 Midwest Region Predictions: I really think that Purdue and Tennessee are on a collision course. You know me: I love predicting top seeds to get sent home early. I just don’t see it, though. Both Painter and Barnes have been massive losers in the NCAA tournament. That’s for sure. However, I don’t even know if they could screw this up. Sure, Creighton and Gonzaga could stick their foot out and try to trip up one of the two top teams. But the Boilermakers and the Vols would still be significant favorites against either of those teams. I’ll call for these two teams to have a rematch of their Maui Invitational matchup back in November (a 71-67 Purdue win) and for either Painter or Barnes to silence some critics and get to the Final Four.

Robert Ferringo is a member of the Basketball Writer's Association of America and a professional sports handicapper for Doc's Sports. He is considered one of the best college basketball handicappers in the country and has posted 12 of 15 winning seasons. He is looking for a monster March run and you can sign up for his college basketball picks and get more information here.

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