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NCAA Tournament: Making Bracket Picks Based on College Basketball Futures Odds

by Ryan Cobbett - 3/19/2024

Making bracket picks based on college basketball futures odds Hunter Dickinson Kansas

Colors, Mascots, notable coaches, notable players, alma maters, and statistics are all potential factors when putting together your bracket each year. Some want the help of experts, some pay attention to the numbers, while others depend on memory recall. Is there a perfect formula? No. However, you may find some luck by going game to game and finding favorable matchups or looking at Final Four futures odds. Let’s go region by region and look at some value picks.

Doc’s Sports offers college basketball expert picks for every game on our NCAA basketball predictions page.

East Region

The defending champion UConn Huskies are the heavy favorites to win this region. They are the most picked champions, with over 24% of brackets featuring the Huskies as the winner. Their path isn’t outrageously tough and doesn’t showcase many popular upset bids. UConn is sitting at +100 to make the Final Four. However, if choosing the favorite isn’t your style, Auburn (+490) and Iowa State (+450) provide great value as the second and third favorites in this region. Iowa State is coming off a dominant showing in the Big 12 Tournament, including a big 28-point victory over Houston. Auburn is coming off an SEC title run, but it’s worth noting there were a lot of early upsets and a big injury that made their path much easier to go down. The 10-Seed Drake Bulldogs are a good first round upset pick, while BYU can end up pulling off a second round upset over an Illinois team with one scorer. Not only that, but San Diego State (+2400) is in very familiar territory having been to the Final Four last year as a 5-Seed, and their defense is capable of beating Auburn and setting up a date with UConn. UConn is everyone’s favorite, but Iowa State at +450 provides great value.

South Region

In the South Region, Houston is the odds-on favorite at making the Final Four at +135, and this region may be the weakest of the four. Marquette deserved the 2-Seed, but they have issues with the health of their star, Tyler Kolek, who has been out with an oblique injury. At +550 they have the second-best odds of reaching the Final Four from this region. The Golden Eagles defense is very underrated, and this team would match up well against the Cougars. Duke (+650), Kentucky (+700), and Wisconsin (+1300) are all interesting as well. Kentucky was one of the hottest teams in the country before fizzling out in the SEC Tournament, Wisconsin was ranked as high as sixth in the nation this season, but has not found their stride since February, while Duke’s offense struggled down the stretch. At +700, I like Kentucky’s value, especially if Kolek can’t go for Marquette. No. 6-Seed Texas Tech went through the Big 12 gauntlet and is an experienced squad. They did lose to Houston twice this season, both losses by double digits, but beating a team three times is tough to do. If they can get past D.J. Burns and the Wolfpack in the opening round, they have good value at being a Cinderella team.

West Region

The West Region is the only region where the 1-Seed is not the favorite to reach the Final Four. Arizona is the favorite at +230 to win the region, while North Carolina is at +340. Saint Mary’s at +1000 is another great pick if they can survive a first-round upset bid by Grand Canyon. The Gaels play elite defense and have one of the best offenses in school history. The 6-Seed New Mexico Lobos are one of the hottest teams in the nation and could upsend Clemson and Baylor. Grand Canyon seems to be everyone’s Cinderella team this season, as their size and play-making capabilities will soon be showcased on the big stage. They would need some help. However, at +4500, the Lopes are one of the most underrated teams in the country. Despite all this, Arizona seems to be the most complete team in this region and has an easy path with the upset-minded Lopes, the elite defense of the Gaels, the scorching Alabama offense, and the top seeded Tar Heels, all above them in the bracket. The Wildcats offense needs to hit its stride again, but they are loaded with weapons. Arizona is the chalk pick. However, at +230, they have the best value of the favorites.

Midwest Region

All eyes will be on Purdue to see how they handle their recent March Madness woes. Their path offers little bumps if they play to their level. Gonzaga isn’t the powerhouse we are used to, Kansas has no depth, and both of those teams are on upset alert. Hunter Dickinson seems to be near 100%, but the Jayhawks may be without star Kevin McCullar. Their potential absences would almost certainly eliminate the Jayhawks from making a run in the tournament. Tennessee has the second-best odds at +340, while Creighton sits at +460. I like the Vols value here as all potential matchups leading up to Purdue heavily favor the men in orange. South Carolina at +3900 is an interesting chaos bid as they have some shooters, and their season has been nothing short of a miracle after being picked to finish last in the SEC. Now it is good to keep your eye on the Bluejays. They faced an early exit in the conference tournament, but they were one of the better teams all season long. They have wins over Alabama, UConn, Marquette, and Providence. Their offense also features three guys averaging over 17 PPG and have multiple three-point weapons that come off the bench. The survivor of Tennessee and Creighton may have better value than Purdue at being a Final Four option. However, I think Purdue has heard enough of their March Madness struggles and are primed for a deep run in Zach Edey’s final season.

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