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Hot and Cold NBA Betting Teams ATS and Over Under 3/14/2024

by Spencer Toth - 3/14/2024

NBA hot and cold betting teams ATS and over under Kevin Durant Phoenix Suns

The final month of the NBA season is upon us, with the playoff hopefuls jockeying for what could prove to be extremely impactful seeding. A common theme in the NBA is that it doesn’t matter how you start a season, but how you end it. It's crunch time for the contenders, and there have been some teams that have been able to hit their stride in the final weeks, while others have fallen short. Here are the hottest and coldest teams Against the Spread (ATS), with the highest and lowest scorers.

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The Hot:

Boston Celtics

The Celtics sit atop the Eastern Conference standings by 9 games and own the league lead by 5 games. They’ve not taken their foot off the gas in recent weeks, going 8-2 straight up with a perfect 8-0 ATS in their 8 wins. It’s not surprising that the Celtics have been favorites in 27 straight games, and they actually have a respectable 14-12-1 ATS record in that span. Boston is often hit with double digit spreads, and the fact that they have been able to consistently cover the large numbers goes to show how far ahead they are compared to most of the league. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are entering their primes. And with defensive wizard Jrue Holiday locking things down on the perimeter, the Celtics are more than capable of dealing with any NBA team. They’ve been covering big numbers all season long, and they show no signs of slowing down. Once the Celtics clinch top spot, we may have to look elsewhere, but until then Boston remains a reliable choice ATS.

San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs have covered in 7 of their last 10 games, despite walking away with a 3-7 outright record. It’s no surprise that the 14-52 San Antonio Spurs were 3 or more-point underdogs in each of their last 10 games. And while they haven’t been winning, they’ve been getting covers. While the Spurs have nothing tangible left to play for, the development of their squad remains the top priority, and we shouldn’t see much resting from their top players down the stretch. Victor Wembanyama has obviously stolen the spotlight, but the Spurs still have several other difference-makers, Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson, both of whom are having career years. Whether or not you back the Spurs will come down to the line. However, if they’re getting too many free points, don’t be deterred by their poor record, as they’ve been keeping it close for a majority of the season.

The Cold:

Phoenix Suns

The Suns were expected to challenge for an NBA title this season, but they’ve been unable to consistently put results on the board all season long. They’ve gone just 2-8 ATS in the last 10 games, and their 5-5 straight up record has seen them slip into the play-in tournament positions. It’s hard to imagine a team with Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Bradley Beal, and Jusuf Nurkic struggling in the NBA, but that’s exactly what has been happening. Not only that, but the star power from these household names has seen the Suns get a little too much respect on the spread. It’s not about what a team could be, and we have to start looking at the Suns for what they are, a mediocre franchise. Until the bookies start to agree with me, the Suns will remain an easy fade ATS down the stretch.

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Timberwolves have vastly exceeded expectations this season, but they haven’t been living up to the lofty expectations they’ve created in the last few weeks. While their 6-4 straight up record is nothing to scoff at, their 3-7 ATS record has seen bettors shred tickets in frustration. The loss of Karl-Anthony Towns for the next month has certainly impacted the locker room morale, and the oddsmakers haven’t been able to accurately adjust the lines to compensate for his absence. The Timberwolves still have DPOY frontrunner Rudy Gobert patrolling the paint, and Anthony Edwards manning the point. However, without the rest of their role players locked in, Minnesota is a shadow of their former selves. The spreads should start shrinking with KAT out, and if that happens, they could become a solid betting option once again.

High Scorers:

Brooklyn Nets

The Nets have been the most consistent team at cashing Overs in recent weeks, going 7-3 in their last 10 games, including 6 straight Overs. The Nets are on the fringe of competing for a play-in spot, but their ceiling is quite low. They lack the star power to realistically compete with the top half of the league. And even though they have a solid defense, it’s not enough. The Nets have been relatively hot from behind the arc in the last 10 games, shooting a sizzling 42.1%. Not only that, but the oddsmakers have been setting their totals incredibly low. Brooklyn’s highest total in the last 10 games was 219.5, with half of them coming in at 210 or lower. This team isn’t blowing the fuses off the scoreboard, but they are still more than capable of putting up 100+ points on a nightly basis. As long as the Nets’ totals stay this low, the Overs will keep cashing. However, exercise caution if we see anything in the 220’s with this slow-paced team.

Toronto Raptors

Any faint playoff chances for the Raptors were extinguished with what is likely a season ending injury for Scottie Barnes. Barnes is the only player in the league to lead their team in PPG, Assists, Rebounds, Blocks, and Steals. It cannot be overstated the impact the third-year player has on the Raptors. And even with their creative mid-season trades, their defense remains a major concern. Toronto has gone Over the total in 6 of the last 10 games. And considering they’ve lost 5 straight games, it hasn’t been a lights out offense doing the heavy lifting. They’ve allowed 120+ points in 8 of their last 10 games, and their inability to slow down big-bodied teams has come back to haunt them. Barnes remains out, and Jakob Poeltl has joined him on the sidelines, leaving a team that was already struggling for size, even shorter. Kelly Olynyk has stepped up admirably, but the lanky Canadian lacks the brawn to slow down punishing big men. Against big, powerful teams, Toronto will be unable to slow them down on the defensive end for the remainder of the season.

Low Scorers:

New York Knicks

The Knicks have managed to stay afloat in the Western Conference with OG Anunoby and Julius Randle on the sidelines, leaning on their defense to cash the Under in 9 of the last 10 games. The Knicks set the season record by allowing just 74 points against the Magic on March 8 before breaking the record themselves by scoring just 73 points 2 days later. This team relies on their defense to stay competitive. And with Anunoby recently getting back from injury, their defense just got even better. The oddsmakers have been trying to adjust, setting the line to 213 or fewer points in each of the last 5 games, but it hasn’t been enough. New York will consistently keep teams in double digits, and the Under remains a solid option in any game involving the Knicks.

Phoenix Suns

The Suns have not only been falling short against the spread (2-8 in the last 10), but they’ve also been flat on the offensive end, leading to 9 Unders in the last 10 contests. A recent injury to Devin Booker has certainly hindered their offense. However, with too many ball hogs on their starting roster, the Suns offensive players have become very selfish. Durant, Booker, and Beal all want the ball in isolation, which leads to many lengthy, but empty possessions for the Suns. Phoenix has the star power that leads to big spreads, and high totals, but their inefficient offense has been unable to match the lofty expectations. If the Suns keep getting 230+ totals, the Under will keep cashing.

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